reports
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Poultry: Worst-case broiler price stress-test scenario indicates HOLD recommendations for CPIN and MAIN; JPFA is the most sensitive to changes in broiler prices. TRADERS’ CORNER PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY
- Jovin Anwar
Poultry – Worst-case Broiler Price Stress-test Scenario Points To HO...
Poultry prices were disappointing in May 19. Broiler prices declined 16.3% yoy and 6.2% mom, while DOC prices fell 15.1% mom. Although DOC prices are still in line with our Rp6,000/chick assumption (5M19: Rp6,200), our concern lies with broiler prices which are still below the lower-limit benchmark price of Rp18,000/kg (5M18: Rp17,500). A broiler price stress-test indicates a HOLD recommendation at worst for CPIN and MAIN, and BUY on JPFA. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Jovin Anwar
- Julia Cheung Pui Man
- K Ajith
- Lee Yuk Kei
- Philip Wong
- Thunya Sutavepramochanon
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, June 19, 2019
CHINA Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$72.20/Target: HK$85.10): Maintains healthy growth despite Huawei turmoil; upgrade to BUY. INDONESIA Sector Poultry: Worst-case broiler price stress-test scenario indicates HOLD recommendations for CPIN and MAIN; JPFA is the most sensitive to changes in broiler prices. MALAYSIA Results Berjaya Sports Toto (BST MK/HOLD/RM2.60/Target: RM2.40): 4QFY19: Earnings in line and confirms resumption of industry growth; prefer Magnum for sector exposure. Top Glov...
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jonathan Koh
- Jovin Anwar
- Julia Cheung Pui Man
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lee Yuk Kei
- Loke Pei Hao
- Neo Chen Wentao
- Philip Wong
- Sandra Huang Jieqiong
- Shaun Tan
- Thunya Sutavepramochanon
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, May 27, 2019
CHINA Sector Coal: A gloomy 2019, downgrade to UNDERWEIGHT. Results I.T (999 HK/HOLD/HK$3.75/Target: HK$3.69): FY19: In line; no change to store expansion strategy in China. HONG KONG Property: Weekly Wrap-up: REDA relaxes sales guidelines. INDONESIA Update Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ/HOLD/Rp4,650/Target: Rp5,000): Upgrade to HOLD; trading cheaply at near -2SD to mean PE despite expected 19.2% yoy net profit decline in 2019. MALAYSIA Results Kossan Rubber (KRI MK/HOLD/RM3.82/Target: RM3....
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
Indonesia Daily - Monday, May 27, 2019
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ/HOLD/Rp4,650/Target: Rp5,000): Upgrade to HOLD; trading cheaply at near -2SD to mean PE despite expected 19.2% yoy net profit decline in 2019. TRADERS’ CORNER Astra International (ASII IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
- Jovin Anwar
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ) - Upgrade to HOLD; Trading Cheapl...
Share price has declined 47.3% from ytd peak of Rp8,825. Net profit declined 18.5% yoy in 1Q19, driven by operating loss in the broiler segment and weak feed performance. A cut in DOC FS broiler production has started to drive the broiler price recovery to its reference price in Apr 19, hence CPIN could book an operating profit in 2Q19. Upgrade to HOLD as the stock is trading cheaply at near -2SD to mean PE. Our new target price is Rp5,000. Entry price: Rp4,550.
- Abdul Hadi Bin Abdul Manaf
- Chong Lee Len
- Jie Ying Chloe Tan
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Jovin Anwar
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- K Ajith
- Katrina Chen Chucan
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Kowit Pongwinyoo
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Loke Pei Hao
- Malaysia Research Team
- Peerawat Dentananan
- Robin Yuen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thunya Sutavepramochanon
- Yeo Hai Wei
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, May 16, 2019
KEY STORY MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage Velesto Energy (VEB MK/BUY/RM0.28/Target: RM0.35): Initiate coverage with BUY and target price of RM0.35 based on annualised 12x EV/EBITDA by 2H19. VEB is the best proxy to local upstream demand in 2019. CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Apr 19: More stimulus needed in 2H19. Sector Paper: Downgrade on unexpected break-up of trade deal. Results Alibaba Group (BABA US/BUY/US$174.84/Target: US$206.00): 4QFY19: In-line results; heavy investments down the road...
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
AMATA AMATA CORP
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
BEC BEC WORLD PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
6AH AUSNUTRIA DAIRY CORP LTD
BELA JUMBO S.A.
700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD
CMS CAHYA MATA SARAWAK BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
OYY PROPNEX
ABMB ALLIANCE BANK MALAYSIA BHD
VEB VELESTO ENERGY BHD
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
- Jovin Anwar
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) - Trading Cheaply At -2SD Despite Ea...
Broiler prices started to recover in Apr 19. Although this should lead to a turnaround in the net operating loss of its commercial farms (broilers) business, we are of the view that earnings will decline in 2019. The high base in 2018 earnings, due to low corn prices in 1H18 and strong poultry prices throughout 2018, may not recur this year. However, we maintain our BUY call with a new target price of Rp1,900 as the stock is trading cheaply at -2SD to its three-year historical mean PE.
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Chong Lee Len
- Gary Kong Tsz Yeung
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jovin Anwar
- K Ajith
- Kader Farhan Bin Kader Ridzwan
- Kowit Pongwinyoo
- Lucas Teng Yao Yang
- Peerawat Dentananan
- Singapore Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thananchai Jittanoon
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, May 10, 2019
CHINA Strategy Trade Wars Are Not Easy To Win: The likely breakdown of trade talks will see China back in a reflationary drive. BUY domestic exposure. Economics Money Supply: April liquidity growth slowed after the government cautioned against excessive stimulus. INDONESIA Results Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ/HOLD/Rp1,200/Target: Rp1,300): 1Q19: Net income above expectations on change in biological assets. MALAYSIA Results SP Setia (SPSB MK/HOLD/RM2.10/Target: RM2.23): 1Q19: Results within expect...
- Jovin Anwar
Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ) - 1Q19: Net Income Above Expectations On Ch...
MAIN recorded outstanding net income of Rp91.3b due to gains from changes in biological assets, a higher DOC ASP and more than 20% yoy feed sales volume growth. We foresee an even better performance in 2Q19 on: a) higher demand during the Eid al-Fitr and Lebaran seasons, and b) the postive impact of lower corn prices from 1Q19 spilling over into 2Q19. However, we forecast flat earnings growth in 2019 because of the high earnings base in 2018. Maintain HOLD at Rp1,300. Entry: Rp1,180.
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
- Charles Wong Kok Min
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Joohijit Kaur Jaztar Singh
- Jovin Anwar
- K Ajith
- Peerawat Dentananan
- Philip Wong
- Singapore Research Team
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, May 03, 2019
CHINA Results Shenzhen Airport Co (000089 CH/HOLD/Rmb8.95/Target: Rmb8.20): 1Q19: Results in line but valuation fairly reflects its potential; downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA Results Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/HOLD/Rp1,130/Target: Rp1,200): 1Q19: Disappointing results, net profit down 76.9% yoy. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage MyNews Holdings (MNHB MK/BUY/RM1.42/Target: RM1.64): Regional CVS leader nurtured locally. We like its strong earnings growth and proven track record as well as a structurally fa...
- Jovin Anwar
Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) - 1Q19: Disappointing Results; Net Profit...
ERAA reported 1Q19 net income of Rp47.4b, down 76.9% yoy and 77.8% qoq. With a three-year historical 1Q earnings contribution of 22.2% to full-year net income, 1Q19 net profit is only 5.2% of our forecast of Rp905b and 5.4% of the street’s estimate of Rp871b. Sales fell 14.0% yoy due to weak demand amid uncertainties during the election period and the black market. Maintain HOLD and cut target price to Rp1,200, implying 6.2% upside from current price levels. Entry price: Rp1,090.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Charles Wong Kok Min
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jovin Anwar
- K Ajith
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Lucas Teng Yao Yang
- Michael Cheung Ho Bun
- Neo Chen Wentao
- Philip Wong
- Sandra Huang Jieqiong
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 02, 2019
CHINA Results China Eastern Airlines (670 HK/HOLD/HK$5.79/Target: HK$5.70): 2018: Results in line with profit warning; but weak cash flow a concern. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/SELL/HK$9.17/Target: HK$8.00): 2018: Net profit down 1.0% yoy, below estimates. Cut target price from HK$10.00 to HK$8.00. Downgrade from HOLD to SELL. Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK/BUY/HK$18.70/Target: HK$23.97): 2018: Earnings miss on exchange loss; long-term growth intact. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK...
CPIN PT CHAROEN POKPHAND INDONESIA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600547 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO. LTD. CLASS A
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
- Jovin Anwar
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN IJ) - 2018: In Line With Our And The ...
2018 net profit grew 82.1% yoy with net margin expanding by 337bp yoy, mainly driven by high poultry prices, as well as a cut in advertising and promotion expenses. Revenue grew by single-digit level, up 9.3% yoy, which was mainly caused by a decline in sales volume in poultry segments. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of Rp5,700 as we foresee the decline in sales volume of the poultry segment continuing in 2019. The stock is trading at its historical mean PE of 23.2x.
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
- Chaiwat Arsirawichai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jovin Anwar
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Lucas Teng Yao Yang
- Philip Wong
- Shaun Tan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Thananchai Jittanoon
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, March 22, 2019
CHINA Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$14.42/Target: HK$18.00): 2018: Net profit up 18% yoy, in line; earnings bottom out in 2H18. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$363.00/Target: HK$418.00): 4Q18: Results in line; bottom-line beats expectations. HONG KONG Results CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK/HOLD/HK$67.20/Target: HK$68.35): 2018: Below expectations; growth dependent on M&As. Razer Inc (1337 HK/HOLD/HK$1.44/Target: HK$1.55): 2018: Top-line momentum continues; bottom line missed expectations. INDONE...
- Jovin Anwar
- Maskun Ramli
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