Macro Review-In Transition

Politics still in transition: Timing of new IMF deal uncertain. With early parliamentary elections, there is a strong likelihood that Ukraine will resume cooperation with the IMF in November-December. This is our base case, and we expect the Ukrainian government will receive EUR500m of macrofinancial aid from the EU and raise US$1-2bn from the markets before YE2019. However, creation of a coalition, formation of the government, and finally negotiations with the IMF could take longer than expecte...