The performance of China's biotechnology sector has remained strong as the market expects biopharmas and CRDMO companies to report robust earnings growth in 1H25, supported by the continued strengthening of the biopharmaceutical pipeline and increasing BD and M&A activities. Moreover, the commercial insurance policy will further support the sector’s rally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Resilient 1H25 growth of 5.3% yoy belies rising downside pressure. Sector Healthcare Weekly: Gaining strength on robust earnings outlook and pipeline growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Property Property sales and prices weakened further in J...
China's biotechnology sector has entered an accelerated growth phase, with firms expanding their innovative commercial product portfolios, achieving significant outlicensing deals and enjoying unexpected profitability. With an unprecedented showing of 74 oral presentations at ASCO 2025, the sector highlighted its robust pipeline and expanding role in global innovation. Sustained policy support and globalisation efforts will further support this expansion. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT with Innovent, Han...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...
Drug innovators beat consensus with strong 2024/1Q25 results. Biopharma is set to outperform in 2025 with robust innovative pipelines and effective globalisation strategies. Internet healthcare players will maintain solid revenue growth and improve profitability in 2025/FY26. Medical devices and leading hospital players should recover steadily in 2025, while ICL and TCM companies may face continued policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks remain a threat to CRDMO majors. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
PAGD recorded strong 1Q25 results with revenue up 25.8% yoy and adjusted net profit of Rmb57.9m, beating estimates. It continues to target double-digit revenue growth and steady earnings improvement for 2025, driven by strong strategic business expansion and continuous AI empowerment. Its senior care services also create a new growth momentum. We expect 15% and 37% CAGRs for its revenue and adjusted net profit in 2025-27. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$11.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/BUY/Rmb17.19/Target: Rmb39.60) Tinci’s 1Q25 net profit came in above estimates at Rmb150m (+30.8% yoy/+2.7% qoq), due to higher-than-expected sales volume and ASP. Going forward, Tinci will sustain earnings growth through cost control measures, product upgrading and global capacity expansion. We raise our 2025-26 net profit forecasts by 119%/150% to Rmb887m/ Rmb967m respectively, and introduce our 2027 net profit forecast o...
GREATER CHINA Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/BUY/Rmb17.19/Target: Rmb39.60) 1Q25: Earnings beat on revenue; raise target price from Rmb18.00 to Rmb39.60. Upgrade to BUY. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$43.38/Target: US$60.00) 3QFY25: Earnings miss; subdued top-line but solid margin outlook in 4QFY25. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$7.15/Target:HK$11.00) 1Q25: Results beat; maintains double-digit revenue growth target for...
Most domestic biopharmaceutical companies expect the US-China trade tensions to have limited impact in the short term, while the long-term impact remains uncertain. We prefer drug innovators focusing on domestic operations and internet healthcare players. The out-licensing business model is unlikely impacted by the trade tensions, while CRDMO players could face considerable geopolitical risks. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are Innovent, Hansoh Pharma, Ali Health and PAGD.
PAGD recorded satisfactory 2024 results with revenue up by 2.9% yoy and adjusted net profit of Rmb159m. It targets double-digit revenue growth and steady earnings improvement for 2025, driven by strong strategic business expansion and continuous AI empowerment. Its senior care services will also create new growth momentum. We expect 15% revenue CAGR for PAGD in 2024-26 with continuous strategic upgrade efforts. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$11.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on JBM Healthcare. Sector Automobile China auto sales declined wow in the 10th week of 2025, with a 55.7% share of the PEV market. BYD successfully raised HK$43.4b (US$5.6b) in an H-share placement. ASEAN investors are becoming increasingly positive on China’s auto sector, with BYD and Geely leading in AI/ADAS and overseas expansion, while risks like margins, US tariffs, and chip restrictions remain manageable. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
AI revolution is a key trend of the healthcare industry for the long term. It will drive innovation, improve efficiency and enhance patient outcomes. AI technologies hold transformative potential in various areas. By leveraging genomic, clinical and molecular data, it is changing medical diagnosis, drug R&D and delivery of precision medical care, ultimately leading to better medical outcomes. The internet healthcare and ICL segments are the most direct beneficiaries in the short term.
With slower-than-expected improvement in biotech funding, 2025 remains a challenging year for most biotech and CRO/CDMO companies. However, the delay of the Biosecure Act in 2024 offers a temporary reprieve for leading CRDMO companies. WuXi Bio and WuXi AppTec are likely to deliver faster revenue growth in 2025 vs 2024, supported by their competitive strength in obtaining new projects and customers, despite the considerable geopolitical risks. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
PAGD proposed a special dividend of HK$9.70/share with a scrip option priced at HK$6.12/share to be dispatched on 24 Jan 25. This will increase Ping An’s stake from 39.41% to 52.74% and trigger a mandatory general offer at HK$6.12/share for PAGD by Ping An, with no privatisation intended. We expect very few investors to accept the offer, while Ping An’s rising stake will benefit PAGD’s expansion of strategic businesses with increased synergies. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$8.50.
Biopharmaceutical companies are embracing the new year with new product approvals and out-licensing deals, while leading CRDMO companies are divesting their overseas businesses. We expect the biopharmaceutical segment to continue recovering, supported by a lower capital cost and constant innovative product launches in China and overseas. The considerable geopolitical risks, however, may continue to cloud the CRDMO segment’s growth outlook. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures persisted in December, as CPI inflation slowed further to 0.1% yoy, while PPI inflation improved to -2.3% yoy in December, despite remaining in negative territory. In contrast, core CPI inflation saw a consecutive uptick to 0.4% yoy, while services CPI inflation edged higher to 0.5% yoy. In addition, the rebound in global commodity prices lifted producer goods PPI and is expected to provide further upside bias in the coming months. Sec...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Positive signs amid deflationary pressures. Sector Automobile: Weekly: OEMs set ambitious 2025 targets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare: Stay focused, stay innovative. Update Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$6.25/Target:HK$8.50): Ping An to consolidate PAGD with no privatisation intended; bright outlook for strategic businesses with increased synergies. Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.6...
Geopolitical tensions and weak economic conditions may cloud 2025’s growth outlook of the CRDMO, medical devices and services segments. However, the biopharma segment will see continued recovery, supported by a lower cost of capital and constant innovative product launches in China and even overseas. Leading internet healthcare players, with stabilising business models, also expect robust revenue growth and improving profitability. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
PAGD sees much room to further penetrate Ping An Group’s huge client base for its strategic businesses. Its senior care services also create new growth momentum. We forecast 2024-26 revenue CAGR of 17% and 45% for its strategic businesses and senior care services respectively. We expect its revenue growth to be flat in 2024 but to regain momentum in 2025 with its continuous strategic upgrade efforts and AI empowerment. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$17.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation September consumer price inflation slipped slightly to 0.4% yoy but remained positive for the eighth consecutive month, below Bloomberg consensus of 0.6% yoy. Meanwhile, PPI inflation declined further from -1.8% in August to -2.8% yoy, mainly driven by broad-based price contractions and is lower than Bloomberg consensus of -2.6% yoy. Core CPI inflation fell from 0.3% to 0.1% yoy, reflecting weaker underlying demand. Strategy China Strategy: Providing greate...
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