The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

After capital spree, SMM still a drag

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 1,000,000 shares at 212.986SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/22/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 22/10/2024

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Sandvik (Buy, TP: SEK265.00) - Buy on weakness

Although a weakening cycle has been a key focal point for investors since the summer, Sandvik’s soft Q3 report with weak demand for the cutting tools business on the back of a “weak macro environment” and high uncertainty for short-term demand, seem to have caught some off guard. We believe the short-term uncertainty is a buying opportunity as we see PMIs near a trough and an attractive risk/reward at a 2025e EV/EBIT of 12.1x. We have cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 2% on lower organic growth, ...

Sandvik : Persistent margin decline continues to be a cause for concer...

>Q3 2024: fall in short-cycle businesses and the margin (-70bp) - Sandvik reported its Q3 2024 results during trading on Monday (details on the following page).The order intake was up by 2% y-o-y on an organic basis (5.9% forecast by the consensus) with increases in the mining sector (SMR: +8% vs css +11.1%). Conversely, orders deteriorated in the industrial segment (SMM: -4% vs css +1.4%) and remained weak in infrastructure (SRP: +1% vs css -3.7%). Sales ...

Sandvik : Le recul de la marge persiste et continue d’inquiéter

>T3 2024 : recul des activités à cycle court et de la marge (-70 pb) - Sandvik a publié lundi, en journée, ses résultats T3 2024 (voir détails en page suivante).Les prises de commandes étaient en hausse organique de 2% yoy (5.9% attendu par le css) avec une hausse sur le secteur minier (SMR : +8% vs css à +11.1%). En revanche, les prises de commandes se sont détériorées sur le segment industriel (SMM : -4% vs css à +1.4%) et restent faibles sur celui des infrast...

Failing to inject excitement

A few % light, 8% mining growth underwhelms

Heads-up for report 21 October

ODDO : Q3 2024 preview: good order levels expected in Q3 and China rai...

>Still healthy commodities prices and demand that could accelerate if Chinese recovery materialises - In Q3, the trends remained broadly unchanged with demand stable at a high level in the mining sector, and limited demand in the construction sector (continuation – and end – of destocking by distributors and core demand still lacklustre in the short term, particularly in Europe). Detailed previews on page 2.The main commodities prices have held up relatively well...

ODDO : Preview T3 2024 : le bon niveau de commandes attendues au T3 et...

>Des cours de matières premières toujours bien orientés et une demande qui pourrait accélérer si le rebond chinois se matérialise - Lors du T3, les tendances sont restées globalement inchangées avec une demande stable sur des niveaux élevés sur le secteur minier, et une faible demande sur le secteur de la construction (poursuite – et fin – du déstockage des distributeurs et demande sous-jacente toujours mal orientée à CT, notamment en Europe). Previews détaillés en pa...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/14/2024

We are removing GSK from our European Large Caps Convictions List. The company is the only one of the six Big Pharma groups to have experienced a break in trend, which could act as a drag on future publications. Our analyst adjusted this morning his EPS estimates for 2024/2025/2026 by -0.6%, 2.0% and- 3.4% respectively, factoring in weaker growth for Arexvy and Shingrix, hence the lowering of his target price from 2,150p to 1,900p. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 14/10/2024

Nous sortons GSK de notre liste de valeurs recommandées Large Caps. La société est la seule des 6 big Pharma à connaître une rupture de tendance qui pourrait peser lors des prochaines publications. Notre analyste ajuste ce jour ses prévisions de BPA 24/25/26 de -0.6%/-2.0%/-3.4% intégrant une plus faible croissance pour Arexvy et Shingrix, ce qui conduit à une baisse de son objectif de cours de 2 150p à 1 900p. - ...

The Capital Goods Data Miner - October 2024

ODDO : US elections: between continuity and disruption, the benefits/r...

Accounting for an average of 19% of revenues for European capital goods groups (over 40% in some cases), the US is clearly a central factor in growth strategies, both organically and inorganically. Based on our analysis of the programmes of the two candidates running for the White House and the positioning of the various groups, we have established two scenarios through which to play the sector depending on the winner in November's election. In this still uncertain US election co...

ODDO : Election US : entre continuité et rupture, les bénéfices/risque...

Représentant 19% en moyenne du CA des groupes de biens d’équipement européens (plus de 40% pour certains), les Etats-Unis sont inévitablement au cœur des stratégies de croissance, tant organique qu’externe. Après analyse des programmes des deux candidats à la Maison Blanche, croisée avec celle du positionnement des groupes, nous avons établi 2 scénarios permettant de se positionner en fonction du candidat qui sera élu en novembre. Dans ce contexte électoral américain encore incer...

Q3e: Delayed recovery point