Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica, Cofinimmo: Aedifica CMD feedback bpost: 1Q25 results beat strongly, outlook surprises Brunel: 1Q25 results disappoint on perm, weak revenue Cofinimmo, Aedifica: Negative reaction on Aedifica offer Eurocommercial Properties: Good with no surprise Montea: Good results, guidance reconfirmed Proximus: Small 1Q beat, guidance reiterated, soft commercial performance Sif Group: The jury is still out Talabat: Preview 1Q25 Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music slowdown in streaming and prof...

GBL/Model update post 1Q25 results/BUY

We are updating our sum-of-the-parts model following the 1Q25 release, showing a NAV that came out slightly higher than anticipated. GBL's unlisted valuations rose by 5% YTD versus our assumption of a 5% YTD decline. For context, the LPX Private Equity index (LPX 50 TR Index) we are using to get a feel for the evolution of the valuation of the unlisted assets that are held within GBL Capital declined by 10% over the quarter. Our update model shows a NAV of €15.1bn or €113.00 per share, implying ...

Dynamic Top Pick List Update May 2025: Removing Fugro – Adding Merus

The ongoing tariff war continues to create uncertainty for investors, with a trade embargo between the US and China. Although Europe has received a temporary reprieve, the prolonged situation could result in significant economic damage. We are maintaining a defensive stance in our Benelux Dynamic Top Pick List, as the Federal Reserve holds steady and the European Central Bank may continue lowering rates. Pessimism regarding the European industry has increased, though some US-based European compa...

Holdings Report - April 2025 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns 2.7% Durin...

1M Performance - Absolute: During April'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of +2.7% which was mainly driven by multi-asset holdings (+3.0%) while single-asset holdings posted a smaller return of +2.0%. The 3 top performers during the period were D'Ieteren (+10.6%), Ackermans & van Haaren (+7.7%) and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (+5.4%) while the 3 worst performers were Exor (-0.8%), HAL Trust (-1.5%) and Quest for Growth (-5.5%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis (a...

Morning Notes : AEDb BB, BPOST BB, GBLB BB, PNL NA

: AEDb BB, BPOST BB, GBLB BB, PNL NA

GBL Analyst Call Feedback, New CEO Presentation

At GBL's Q1 2025 conference, newly appointed CEO Johannes Huth, former partner at KKR (now advisory partner), outlined a strategic shift towards more private capital to boost shareholder value. In private, the CEO sees no more than 3 verticals. Healthcare will remain important, next to consumer and potentially a third in light industrial. He targets double-digit total shareholder return and the reduction of the NAV discount by focusing on the investment process. GBL's zero LTV and €5.6 billion ...

Benelux Morning Notes

BE Semiconductor Industries: Important TCB Next order. Belgian telcos: Telenet weak Q1 commercially across the board, financials reasonable. D'Ieteren: Belgian April car registrations down 5%, VW down 11%. GBL: NAV per share above estimates. Kinepolis: US Peer Cinemark 1Q25 results a slight miss. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 1Q25 very weak, cut guidance on EBITDA, revenue after 2 months

Morning Notes : BESI NA, GBLB BB, GIMB BB, ONTEX BB, WDP BB

: BESI NA, GBLB BB, GIMB BB, ONTEX BB, WDP BB

GBL 1Q FY25: NAV Dips 1.8%, Private Healthcare Assets Post Robust Resu...

The 1Q25 NAVps fell 1.8% to €111.2 vs. €113.8 at FY24-end, mainly dragged down by listed assets. Largest declines came from SGS (-€168m), Pernod Ricard (-€306m), and Adidas (-€127m). Private healthcare assets Affidea (+€116m) and Sanoptis (€32m) partially offset the NAVps decline. Mgmt. remains committed to achieving double-digit total shareholder returns over the medium term, targeting €5b in disposals (~50% completed) between FY24–27 for reinvestment and shareholder distribution. During 1Q, GB...

Vopak Key take-aways 1Q25 analyst call

Vopak reported 1Q25 which were in line with proportional EBITDA of €300m vs consensus of €292m. So far company foresees only limited impact in the short term linked to trade tariff uncertainty. EBITDA outlook maintained even when discounting less favourable FX rates. Indian AVTL on track for IPO in 1H25 following conditional approval by regulator. Occupancy rates holding up well at 92% vs. 93% last quarter. The Q&A in the analyst call further comforted our scenario. We reiterate Buy rating and €...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 04/23/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 23/04/2025

Vopak : Solid quarter but forex weakness will prevent earnings upgrade...

Benelux Morning Notes

AkzoNobel: 3% beat on 1Q25 Adj. EBITDA, FY25 guidance maintained at +€1.55bn. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q25 results - extending the downcycle. Corbion: Apogee. Just Eat Takeaway.com: 1Q25 Trading Update - no impact on the bid. Kinepolis: 1Q25 preview. KPN: 1Q25 preview. Randstad: Strong 9% high quality beat on 1Q25, 2Q25 outlook looks a touch below. Vår Energi: Fine start of the year, more to come. Vopak: Reasonable start, cashflow developing nicely.

Morning Notes : AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, ...

: AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, VPK NA, TKWY NA

Benelux Morning Notes

Ackermans & van Haaren: Another Delen Private Bank acquisition in the Netherlands. Ahold Delhaize: Peer Albertsons FY24/25 results. ASML: 1Q25 results; already weaker ahead of the tariffs. Barco: Calm before the storm. Heineken: In the hold. Melexis: Partial move to China. Staffing sector: Hays' 3Q24/25 trading update; in line. Vopak: New industrial terminal or energy transition facility? WDP: €60m investment with KDL

GBL/Transforming into a private equity powerhouse/BUY

Breaking news next to the FY24 results report, which for a holding company rarely is a real share price driver, was the announcement of a couple of important changes in governance: current CEO Ian Gallienne will step down and take up a non-executive role as Chairman, the current chairman Paul Demarais, Jr. will become vice-chairman, and KKR's most prolific European dealmaker Johannes Huth is to become the new Managing Director. Key question is whether the latter, who spearheaded some of KKR's mo...