E-commerce traffic - October 2024

Taking action on the AOV decline

17% EBIT beat if adjusting for CEO departure

Quality just got cheaper

Few signs of a market recovery

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK115.00) - Q3 miss highlights Q4 uncertainty

Despite the weak Q3 results, management reiterated its full-year guidance, implying a strong finish to the year. However, given its YTD performance and Q4 facing very tough YOY comparables, we see a risk of Boozt missing the mid-point of its adj. EBIT guidance (we expect it to be at the bottom end). We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK115 (120), mainly on our lower estimates.

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK120.00) - Weak Q3, unchanged guidance

We consider this a weak report for Boozt, including Q3 figures significantly below consensus, reflecting a weak gross margin, and unchanged 2024 guidance. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT to come down c3–5% on the Q3 results and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Guides for a strong end of year

September was not enough to save Q1

Consolidation paying off

Recovery is near according to BHG

E-handelsindikatorn +28% y-o-y for September

Lost sales growth to be found in Q4

Q3: slowdown across geographies

Strong online fashion markets in Q3

Q3e: back to AOV growth

Q3e: 15% org. growth on tough comps

Already outgrowing the market by 20pp

Recovery could be delayed to '25e

E-commerce traffic - September 2024