More Q1 results and a proposed delisting

The Q1 reporting season is in full swing, with results from Catena, Entra, Pandox and Wihlborgs in the past week. In addition, Aurora Eiendom announced a proposal to delist from Euronext Growth Oslo. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.00% for 2025e and 5.31% for 2026e.

When it rains, it pours

Entra (Buy, TP: NOK130.00) - Net lettings slip again

Q1 EBIT was broadly in line with our forecast, but financing costs were higher following a refinancing, and net financing was guided higher than we expected. However, net lettings were weak (again) at NOK-73m (lost 2.36% of its annual rent income), and were down c6.1% over the past three quarters. We have cut our 2025e EPS by 10%, but reiterate our BUY and NOK130 target price, with our key investment case the upside potential in the stock in an M&A scenario.

The trend continues

Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

Signs of sector recovery, and more Q1 results

The markets were much quieter following the Easter break, with limited news; however, the names we cover saw their shares up 2.6% on average, with Atrium Ljungberg (7.1%), SBB (7.1%) and Pandox (4.8%) the top performers. JM released its Q1 results and we reiterated our BUY, believing it has passed the earnings trough, while we reiterated our HOLDs on Corem and Fabege following their quarterly reports. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2025e and 5.34%...

Avanza Bank Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Avanza Bank Holding AB bought 1,500 shares at 313.130SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Q1 reporting begins, volatility persists, CEO to leave and ‘special ex...

The ‘tariff volatility’ in credit and equity markets persisted this week, reversing many of the gains from previous weeks. Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. Öresund’s representative left the board of Stenhus and appointed a special examiner to review the company’s management. Castellum’s CEO Joacim Sjöberg stated he plans to leave by Q4 2026. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.33% for 2025e and 5.66% for 2026e.

Sector recovery on tariff introduction

While still down YTD, the Nordic real estate sector did see a recovery this week on falling interest rates as a result of US tariffs being imposed. Furthermore, we upgraded JM to BUY (HOLD) and published several Q1 previews in the construction sector. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.06% for 2025e and 5.37% for 2026e.

Another round of estimate cuts

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Everything is connected

Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

A tenant bankruptcy, a lost rating, more newbuilds and new issues

This week, Castellum lost its seventh-largest tenant after Northvolt declared bankruptcy, Citycon’s IG rating was withdrawn, construction companies continue to start newbuilds (NCC in Finland), Corem announced a lease extension, and Kojamo and Sagax issued new bonds. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.17–5.49% for 2025–2026e.

Frontline Plc: 1 director

A director at Frontline Plc bought 5,000 shares at 171.050NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Tough macro

Share prices for the names we cover are down by 7% week-on-week on average following the hike in market interest rates. In other news, February residential prices for Norway and Sweden were published, Skanska announced another large newbuild in Sweden, and Pandox acquired a EUR66m hotel in Cologne, Germany. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.12% for 2025e and 5.43% for 2026e.