Q1: EBIT 6% above cons on better margins

Q1: EBIT 6% above cons. We see a strong '24 margin outlook, and the DK turnaround continues positively. Expect limited changes to cons '24e EBIT, but we find the report case-supportive

+450bp gross margin underpins turnaround

A strong start to 2024 with 5-13% divisional profit beats. +450bp gross margin expansion validates turnaround story. BUY on deep values and turnaround, TP DKK 235 (225).

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK250.00) - Gaining confidence in management

The Q1 results beat our expectations and consensus, with c5% organic growth and a 12.5% EBITA margin, driven by the Hearing division, while Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer saw c0% organic revenue growth in still-muted markets. The 2024 guidance was maintained for organic sales growth of 2–8%, an EBITA margin of 12–14%, and FCF of >DKK700m. At the upcoming CMD, we expect focus to be on One-GN and market outlook. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK250 (230).

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 499 shares at 944.575DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/05/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024

We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...

GN Store Nord : Strong hearing aid business, stabilisation at Enterpri...

>Q1 review – Strong beat on bottom line - GN Store Nord achieved Q1 revenues of DKK 4,303m (+2.1% y-o-y, 0%/+1% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q1 adj. EBITA reached DKK 538m (+218% y-o-y, margin 12.5%), which was a strong beat by 35% of our estimates and by 32% vs consensus. EPS reached DKK 1.74 (vs DKK 0.87/0.85 expected). The 2024 guidance is confirmed.GN Hearing - Excellent organic growth on new Nexia platform - GN Hearing’s Q1 revenues of DKK 1,737m (+7....

Growth and margin beat in key business'

Cost efficiency and growth story priced in

Q1: Adj. net profit +3% vs. ABGSCe and -4% vs. cons. on cost & tax. Adj. EPS up 2% and 4% for '24e-'25e (income, costs & LLP). At 1.5x P/NAV it's a well priced growth & efficiency story: HOLD (Buy).

Guidance looks low and consensus high

2024e forecasts unchanged, '25e-'26e up by 1-2%. Q1 was a good start to a busy year. HOLD, TP of DKK 1,000.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Solid start to the year

Overall, we consider the Q1 results a solid start to the year, with China’s and the premium beer momentum especially encouraging and supporting our view that the unchanged 2024 guidance looks conservative. We see room for positive earnings momentum throughout the year, with good weather providing upside potential. We thus reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK139.00) - Continued strong ROE and growt...

Boosted by the tax advantage of customer dividends, continued strong lending growth, YOY cost reductions and robust asset quality, SVEG reported a Q1 ROE of 21.6%. Moreover, with the approval and implementation of new IRB risk models, in addition to strong earnings, the CET1 ratio rose ~70bp QOQ. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.2x, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, and reiterate our BUY and NOK139 target price.

Growth slightly ahead but lack of upgrade likely to disappoint

Q1: Stronger growth than expected

Adj. PTP beat of 2% vs. ABGSCe and cons. 2-7% better costs gives CI/ of ~25%. Cons. est. rev. likely +/-1%; Stock down 0-2%.

Sparebanken Møre (Hold, TP: NOK92.00) - Strong capital position

With NII at still-high levels and moderate loan losses, MORG reported a Q1 ROE of ~13% (>12% target), despite elevated cost inflation. Even with solid lending growth, the CET1 ratio rose ~25bp QOQ, leaving ample 2.3%-points headroom to its 16.15% requirement (including P2G). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–4%, driven by lower core revenues and higher costs, and in turn trimmed our target price to NOK92 (95). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of 9.5x, we continue to find a more attractiv...

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Time to rebuild credibility

We forecast Q1 organic sales growth of 3.0% YOY (consensus 2.8%) and an EBITA margin of 9.7% (consensus 9.6%). We see Hearing as starting well, and despite still-negative growth in Enterprise, we expect unchanged 2024 guidance. The upcoming CMD offers management scope to rebuild credibility, and we expect updated long-term targets to reflect “One-GN”. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK230 (215).

A decent Q1 while we await the CMD

Q1 2 May with ABG +8% vs. cons. on low-visibility quarter. All days at potential new targets at CMD 7 May, little news on Q1. We stay BUYers on cheap turnaround potential.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Probably a good start to the year

We expect the Q1 results to show Carlsberg had a good start to the year (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). Slightly above consensus, we forecast c2% volume growth YOY and c6% organic revenue growth. Given Q1 is seasonally a small quarter, we believe the FY guidance could be kept for now, but that it remains conservative as usual, and see room for increases during the year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...