GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Apr 25 GGR beat expectations; May Day Golden Week visitor arrivals expected to grow 4% yoy. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$52.20/Target: HK$68.00): 1Q25: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/BUY/Rmb63.40/Target: Rmb70.80): 1Q25: Core net profit down 16% yoy; sequential improvement in Hainan duty-free sales. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$18.94/Target: HK$30.00)...
We expect 2Q25 core profit to rise qoq, driven by improvements in the cement, petrochemical and packaging businesses, supported by higher cement prices, lower production costs and a recovery in petrochemical spreads. The LSP project restart remains unscheduled, and we are closely monitoring the supply situation. While trade tensions could reduce supply and support spreads, they may also weigh on demand. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt160.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property 1Q25 earnings under pressure; recovery outlook remains uncertain. Update Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/BUY/Bt2.20/Target: Bt3.30) Expect strong earnings growth in 1Q25. Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/HOLD/Bt168.50/Target: Bt178.00) Less optimistic on foreign patient numbers. Downgrade to HOLD. Siam Cement (SCC TB/HOLD/Bt160.00/Target: Bt160.00) Timeline for the LSP project to resume operations remains uncertain.
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
We expect SCC to report a 1Q25 net profit of Bt652m. The CBM and packaging businesses have shown a strong recovery, supported by seasonal demand growth. For 2Q25, we anticipate a significant qoq rise in net profit, driven by improved performances in the CBM and petrochemical businesses. However, we believe the improvement in petrochemical spreads is temporary. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt160.00.
SCC recorded a net loss in 4Q24 of Bt512m due to underperformance in its core businesses, including CBM, petrochemicals and packaging. Although SCC has benefited from a higher dividend income and stock gains, these were insufficient to counterbalance the losses from its core operations. However, the petrochemical sector continues to face challenges, particularly in 1H25, leading to a persistently negative outlook for this segment. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt160.00.
We expect SCC to report a net loss of Bt930m in 4Q24, with earnings declining across all business segments. The petrochemical division will be particularly affected, continuing its downturn due to weak olefins spreads. We have lowered our net profit forecasts for 2024-25 to reflect reduced profitability across all business segments, especially with the ongoing supply challenges that are expected to pressure the petrochemical business over the next 2-3 years. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt1...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Positive signs amid deflationary pressures. Sector Automobile: Weekly: OEMs set ambitious 2025 targets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare: Stay focused, stay innovative. Update Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$6.25/Target:HK$8.50): Ping An to consolidate PAGD with no privatisation intended; bright outlook for strategic businesses with increased synergies. Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.6...
GREATER CHINA Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$87.00/Target: HK$104.50): 3Q24: Reported earnings miss expectations on forex loss but core business recovery picking up; maintain BUY. BYD Company (1211 HK/HOLD/HK$295.00/Target: HK$260.00): 3Q24: Earnings up 12% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain HOLD. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$5.97/Target: HK$6.70): 3Q24: Earnings growth returns to positive territory on lower credit cost. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.84/Target: Rmb...
SCC reported a qoq and yoy drop in net profit for 3Q24 due to reduced sales and margins across all sectors, compounded by the appreciated Thai baht. The 3Q24 net profit included substantial extra gains, and without these, the loss would have been greater than our and consensus estimates. We still expect a rebound in net profit in 4Q24 due to the low base effect from 3Q24. We are still cautious on the petrochemical business. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt220.00.
We expect SCC to report a net loss of Bt286m, with weaker performances across all business segments and a rise in stock losses. While we expect net profit to rebound in 4Q24, the petrochemical sector remains a concern due to a slower-than-expected demand recovery and a significant increase in new supply. These supply challenges are likely to keep exerting pressure on the petrochemical business over the next 2-3 years, prompting us to remain cautious. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt250.00.
INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp720/Target: Rp1,200) Store expansion pace picking up. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation MPOB's Sep 24 data showed slow inventory rebuilding due to a decline in production even as exports improved. Results Top Glove (TOPG MK/BUY/RM1.03/Target: RM1.31) 4QFY24: Losses narrow but below expectation...
SCC has revised its business strategy to prioritise the production of green products and reduce production costs by incorporating alternative fuels and renewable energy into its processes. SCC is also adjusting its feedstock plans for the petrochemical business to enhance flexibility. Additionally, SCC has reduced its capex to align with the increasingly challenging business outlook. We have a negative outlook on the petrochemical business. Maintain HOLD. Target price: Bt276.00.
GREATER CHINA Commissioned Report ECARX (ECX US/BUY/US$1.75/Target: US$3.40): Making smart electric cars excellent. Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,320/Target: Rp2,900): Acquisition of ServeCo might increase EXCL’s revenue by 8% in 2025. MALAYSIA Sector Gloves: Further tariff hike announced by US authority on China’s medical-grade gloves beginning 2025-26 is poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. SINGAPORE...
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