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Ken Lee
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile : Weekly: PV retail sales recover in the last week of...

Daily average retail sales volume of PVs doubled wow and spiked 34% mom in the last week of November. Daily average wholesale volume growth returned to a positive trajectory during the week, due to an easing of the chip shortage. In Nov 21, the OEMs we cover also posted 9-22% mom sales growth, and their EV brands registered 13-22% mom sales growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY on valuation.

Ken Lee
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile : Weekly: EV companies' deliveries surged 50-200% mom...

China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) did not disclose passenger vehicle (PV) sales for last week. EV companies like NIO and Leap saw 50-200% mom growth in deliveries, due to the easing of the chip shortage. Geely delivered 2,012 units of Zeekr 001 in Nov 21, shortly after the debut on 23 Oct 21. NIO and BYD respectively launched ET7 and Song Pro DMi 2022 at end-Nov 21, fuelling sales growth for 2022. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: Retail sales hit by lockdowns; Wholesale re...

In the third week of November, PV retail sales were still capped by lockdowns, and wholesale shipment continued to recover mom on easing chip shortage. The government’s curb on expansion of battery production capacity would accelerate industry consolidation in favour of leading players such as CATL. Tesla’s probable construction of a second plant in China bodes well for its Chinese suppliers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: Continued recovery in sales despite chip su...

In the second week of November, PV retail sales were still capped by lockdowns, and wholesale shipment recovered mom despite fluctuations in chip supplies. Chinese OEMs will unveil new EV models with driving ranges of 500-1,000km on a single charge at the Guangzhou Auto Show, which will stimulate 2022 EV sales. Auto parts stocks are riding on the expectations of easing logistics bottleneck. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: Demand capped by lockdowns, supply shortage...

In the first week of November, PV retail sales were still capped by lockdowns, and wholesale shipment recovered strongly mom on the easing chip shortage. Going forward, auto sales are set to recover with the abating pandemic and easing chip shortage. Guangdong has just kick-started a new round of local stimulus, and we expect other provinces to follow suit. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE Energy and Ningbo Xusheng.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: Wholesale spurred by easing chip shortage, ...

Daily average PV retail sales volume in China dropped 8% mom and 15% yoy in the last week of October due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. On the other hand, daily average PV wholesale volume resumed positive growth due to an easing chip shortage. Going forward, auto sales are set to recover with the abating pandemic and easing chip shortage. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We prefer EV companies, OEMs and auto part companies. Top picks: BYD, CATL, GAC and Nexteer.

Akhmad Nurcahyadi ... (+14)
  • Akhmad Nurcahyadi
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chaiwat Arsirawichai
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Hazmy Hazin
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kwanchai Atiphophai
  • Peerawat Dentananan
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Sunny Chen
  • Xiu Li Yap

Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, October 27, 2021

GREATER CHINA Results China Yongda Automobile Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$12.74/Target: HK$28.00): 3Q21: Net profit up 31.5% yoy and 5.3% qoq, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY with target price of HK$28.00. Update Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$10.98/Target: HK$9.60): Issues profit warning − 1HFY22 results will come in below market expectation. Downgrade to SELL. Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$100.64/Target: US$130.00): Gaining market share amid the challenging environment, and extending investm...

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Yongda Automobile Services Holdings (3669 HK): 3Q21: Results mee...

Yongda’s 3Q21 net profit grew 31.5% yoy and 5.3% qoq to Rmb631m, in line with estimates, with the improvement in new-car sales gross margin more than offsetting the decline in new-car sales volume amid the chip shortage. Going forward, new-car sales will recover from 3Q21 along with the easing chip shortage, and margin will hold up well due to strong demand. We keep 2021-23 EPS estimates unchanged. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$28.00.

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+6)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chun Sung Oong
  • Joyce Chan Pui Lai
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, October 27, 2021

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Yongda Automobile Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$12.74/Target: HK$28.00) 3Q21: Net profit up 31.5% yoy and 5.3% qoq, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY with target price of HK$28.00. Update Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$10.98/Target: HK$9.60) Issues profit warning − 1HFY22 results will come in below market expectation. Downgrade to SELL. Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$100.64/Target: US$130.00) Gaining market share amid the challenging environment, and extending invest...

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: PV sales rebounded 11% mom in the first hal...

China’s PV retail sales dropped 11% yoy but grew 11% mom in 1-17 Oct 21 on easing chip shortage. CPCA pointed out that the impacts of the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in certain cities and the property market woes are weighing on car sales, which we deem unlikely. The chip shortage would probably ease from 4Q21, as TSMC plans to allocate more capacity for the production of automobile chips. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: September EV sales beat expectations despit...

Despite a sustained chip shortage, EV makers posted upbeat Sep 21 sales. Tesla’s 3Q21 deliveries grew 73% yoy and 20% qoq to a record high of 241,300 units. BYD’s EV sales surged 258% yoy and 16% mom to a record high of over 70,000 units in Sep 21. Most Chinese EV startups like NIO and Xpeng registered mom sales recovery in Sep 21. We prefer EV stocks for their resilient sales. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: Cut 2021F EPS by 2-10% on power shortage.

Auto OEMs and auto parts companies said the recent power shortage in China is not impacting the production and supply chain, as end-demand remains resilient and they are not fully utilising their capacity given the chip shortage. However, power shortage is dragging down the output of steel and aluminium. To factor in higher raw material costs, we cut 2021F EPS for auto companies by 2-10%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile Weekly: Car buyers switching from new vehicles to use...

Car buyers are switching from new cars to used cars, given the tight supplies of new vehicles amid the global chip shortage. Some auto dealers are even offering to buy back used luxury cars aged less than two years at the original prices. We believe the higher car prices will offset auto dealers’ sales losses resulting from the chip shortage. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda. Upgrade Geely and Weichai from HOLD to BUY on valuations.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: Cut target prices for OEMs by 5-7% on disap...

PV sales grew at low single digits in 1-12 Sep 21, but fell yoy due to a chip shortage. We cut 2021-22 EPS estimates for OEMs by 3-16% and 5-7% respectively, based on the disappointing 3Q21 sales. We keep 2021-23 EPS estimates for dealers unchanged, with higher car prices offsetting sales loss from the chip shortage. The chip shortage will likely ease from late-Sep 21 with Malaysia easing the lockdown. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.

Ken Lee ... (+2)
  • Ken Lee
  • Sabrina Soh

China Automobile : Weekly: PV sales momentum improved in the last week...

China PV sales dropped 12.6% yoy and edged up 0.4% mom in Aug 21, due to COVID-19 and chip shortage. However, PV sales momentum improved in the last week of August. Chip shortage is expected to ease from 4Q21, spurring auto sales. CV sales plummeted 44% yoy due to the enactment of National 6 standard on 1 Jul 21. China’s EV market momentum remains resilient, growing 202% yoy/24% mom. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.

Greater China Research Team ... (+2)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

China Market Strategy: Tough love.

Common prosperity, while necessary for sustainable growth, will no doubt cause short-term pain and uncertainty as the economy realigns. With growth slowing as well, Chinese equities may see renewed weakness in the near term. On a more positive note, we expect policy support to be stepped up in 4Q21 and prefer beneficiaries of policy reflation, improvement in mass market consumption and industrial upgrading.

Greater China Research Team ... (+5)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team

Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks - September 2021

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect macro policy easing to be stepped up, and add Anhui Conch, HKex, Tinci Materials, Yongda Auto and Zoomlion. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformed In Aug 21 By 760bp: We take profit on INTP after a stellar return and add JSMR. Our stock picks are BMRI, TLKM, SIDO, SMRA and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Embracing A Risk-On Mode: Aug 21 alpha picks portfolio performed in tandem with the FBMKLCI. Sep 21 picks: ...

MAG MAGNOLIA BOSTAD AB
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
000063 ZTE CORPORATION CLASS A
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
OMH OM HOLDINGS
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
SPALI SUPALAI PCL
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL PCL
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
BDMS-R BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES PCL NVDR
SE SEA ADS
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
AIB ATA IMS BHD
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
839 CHINA EDUCATION GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
1157 ZOOMLION HEAVY INDUSTRY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CO LTD
3669 CHINA YONGDA AUTOMOBILES SER
UMSH UMS HOLDINGS LTD
SCT SUPERCOMNET TECHNOLOGIES BHD
INNOT INNOTEK LTD
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
KEX KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy : Alpha Picks: September conviction calls.

Chinese equities could stay volatile in Sep 21 as further policy details on regulating the tech sector may still be announced. However, we see an increasing possibility of macro policy easing. Hence, we are making a measured increase in portfolio beta and add Anhui Conch, HKex, Tinci Materials, Yongda Auto and Zoomlion to the BUY list.

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