Daily average PV retail sales and wholesale shipment grew 11% and 25% mom in the period 1-12 Dec 21. CAAM forecasts 5.4% auto sales growth and 47% EV sales growth for 2022, roughly in line with our forecasts, based on the easing chip shortage, abating pandemic and recovery of the overall economy. Upgrade from MARKET WEIGHT to OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.
Daily average retail sales volume of PVs doubled wow and spiked 34% mom in the last week of November. Daily average wholesale volume growth returned to a positive trajectory during the week, due to an easing of the chip shortage. In Nov 21, the OEMs we cover also posted 9-22% mom sales growth, and their EV brands registered 13-22% mom sales growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY on valuation.
China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) did not disclose passenger vehicle (PV) sales for last week. EV companies like NIO and Leap saw 50-200% mom growth in deliveries, due to the easing of the chip shortage. Geely delivered 2,012 units of Zeekr 001 in Nov 21, shortly after the debut on 23 Oct 21. NIO and BYD respectively launched ET7 and Song Pro DMi 2022 at end-Nov 21, fuelling sales growth for 2022. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.
In the third week of November, PV retail sales were still capped by lockdowns, and wholesale shipment continued to recover mom on easing chip shortage. The government’s curb on expansion of battery production capacity would accelerate industry consolidation in favour of leading players such as CATL. Tesla’s probable construction of a second plant in China bodes well for its Chinese suppliers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.
In the second week of November, PV retail sales were still capped by lockdowns, and wholesale shipment recovered mom despite fluctuations in chip supplies. Chinese OEMs will unveil new EV models with driving ranges of 500-1,000km on a single charge at the Guangzhou Auto Show, which will stimulate 2022 EV sales. Auto parts stocks are riding on the expectations of easing logistics bottleneck. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE, Xusheng and Nexteer.
In the first week of November, PV retail sales were still capped by lockdowns, and wholesale shipment recovered strongly mom on the easing chip shortage. Going forward, auto sales are set to recover with the abating pandemic and easing chip shortage. Guangdong has just kick-started a new round of local stimulus, and we expect other provinces to follow suit. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, EVE Energy and Ningbo Xusheng.
Daily average PV retail sales volume in China dropped 8% mom and 15% yoy in the last week of October due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. On the other hand, daily average PV wholesale volume resumed positive growth due to an easing chip shortage. Going forward, auto sales are set to recover with the abating pandemic and easing chip shortage. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We prefer EV companies, OEMs and auto part companies. Top picks: BYD, CATL, GAC and Nexteer.
GREATER CHINA Results China Yongda Automobile Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$12.74/Target: HK$28.00): 3Q21: Net profit up 31.5% yoy and 5.3% qoq, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY with target price of HK$28.00. Update Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$10.98/Target: HK$9.60): Issues profit warning − 1HFY22 results will come in below market expectation. Downgrade to SELL. Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$100.64/Target: US$130.00): Gaining market share amid the challenging environment, and extending investm...
Yongda’s 3Q21 net profit grew 31.5% yoy and 5.3% qoq to Rmb631m, in line with estimates, with the improvement in new-car sales gross margin more than offsetting the decline in new-car sales volume amid the chip shortage. Going forward, new-car sales will recover from 3Q21 along with the easing chip shortage, and margin will hold up well due to strong demand. We keep 2021-23 EPS estimates unchanged. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$28.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Yongda Automobile Services Holdings (3669 HK/BUY/HK$12.74/Target: HK$28.00) 3Q21: Net profit up 31.5% yoy and 5.3% qoq, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY with target price of HK$28.00. Update Ali Health (241 HK/SELL/HK$10.98/Target: HK$9.60) Issues profit warning − 1HFY22 results will come in below market expectation. Downgrade to SELL. Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$100.64/Target: US$130.00) Gaining market share amid the challenging environment, and extending invest...
China’s PV retail sales dropped 11% yoy but grew 11% mom in 1-17 Oct 21 on easing chip shortage. CPCA pointed out that the impacts of the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in certain cities and the property market woes are weighing on car sales, which we deem unlikely. The chip shortage would probably ease from 4Q21, as TSMC plans to allocate more capacity for the production of automobile chips. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.
China’s PV retail sales dropped 17.3% yoy and grew 8.9% mom in Sep 21 as the chip shortage eased. Chinese brands and passenger EVs outperformed the industry, growing 16% and 33% mom in retail sales in Sep 21. We prefer EV stocks for their resilient sales. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.
Despite a sustained chip shortage, EV makers posted upbeat Sep 21 sales. Tesla’s 3Q21 deliveries grew 73% yoy and 20% qoq to a record high of 241,300 units. BYD’s EV sales surged 258% yoy and 16% mom to a record high of over 70,000 units in Sep 21. Most Chinese EV startups like NIO and Xpeng registered mom sales recovery in Sep 21. We prefer EV stocks for their resilient sales. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.
Auto OEMs and auto parts companies said the recent power shortage in China is not impacting the production and supply chain, as end-demand remains resilient and they are not fully utilising their capacity given the chip shortage. However, power shortage is dragging down the output of steel and aluminium. To factor in higher raw material costs, we cut 2021F EPS for auto companies by 2-10%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.
Car buyers are switching from new cars to used cars, given the tight supplies of new vehicles amid the global chip shortage. Some auto dealers are even offering to buy back used luxury cars aged less than two years at the original prices. We believe the higher car prices will offset auto dealers’ sales losses resulting from the chip shortage. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda. Upgrade Geely and Weichai from HOLD to BUY on valuations.
PV sales grew at low single digits in 1-12 Sep 21, but fell yoy due to a chip shortage. We cut 2021-22 EPS estimates for OEMs by 3-16% and 5-7% respectively, based on the disappointing 3Q21 sales. We keep 2021-23 EPS estimates for dealers unchanged, with higher car prices offsetting sales loss from the chip shortage. The chip shortage will likely ease from late-Sep 21 with Malaysia easing the lockdown. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.
China PV sales dropped 12.6% yoy and edged up 0.4% mom in Aug 21, due to COVID-19 and chip shortage. However, PV sales momentum improved in the last week of August. Chip shortage is expected to ease from 4Q21, spurring auto sales. CV sales plummeted 44% yoy due to the enactment of National 6 standard on 1 Jul 21. China’s EV market momentum remains resilient, growing 202% yoy/24% mom. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL, Zhongsheng and Yongda.
Common prosperity, while necessary for sustainable growth, will no doubt cause short-term pain and uncertainty as the economy realigns. With growth slowing as well, Chinese equities may see renewed weakness in the near term. On a more positive note, we expect policy support to be stepped up in 4Q21 and prefer beneficiaries of policy reflation, improvement in mass market consumption and industrial upgrading.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect macro policy easing to be stepped up, and add Anhui Conch, HKex, Tinci Materials, Yongda Auto and Zoomlion. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformed In Aug 21 By 760bp: We take profit on INTP after a stellar return and add JSMR. Our stock picks are BMRI, TLKM, SIDO, SMRA and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Embracing A Risk-On Mode: Aug 21 alpha picks portfolio performed in tandem with the FBMKLCI. Sep 21 picks: ...
Chinese equities could stay volatile in Sep 21 as further policy details on regulating the tech sector may still be announced. However, we see an increasing possibility of macro policy easing. Hence, we are making a measured increase in portfolio beta and add Anhui Conch, HKex, Tinci Materials, Yongda Auto and Zoomlion to the BUY list.
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