Another strong quarter on the cards

TF Bank AB: 1 director

A director at TF Bank AB bought 750 shares at 328.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Just getting started

Q3 EPS hit a new record, up 42% YOY, and Credit Cards’ lending continues to grow at 58% YOY. Asset quality was also better QOQ, and management expects further improvements. We still see significant upside potential in the stock. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 5–8%, and reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of SEK360 (330).

Scalability coming through

Costs and loan losses drove strong Q3 beat

Positioned for sustainable earnings growth

Announces LOI to divest NPL portfolios

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK290.00) - BUY case intact

Q2 featured all-time high EPS, growing by 27% YOY, with the Credit Cards growth outlook remaining strong. Asset quality was also fairly stable on the whole. We still see significant upside potential in the stock even after it has risen 47% YTD. After increasing our 2024–2026e EPS by 2–3%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK290 (273).

Earnings growth set to remain strong

Q2 earnings beat driven by lower costs. EPS raised by 1-2%, EPS CAGR of 22% (‘23-‘26e). TP raised to SEK 270 (260), reiterate BUY.

Q2 beat driven by lower costs

Attractive earnings scenario not fully reflected

Operating profit to grow by 26% in Q2'24e. EPS raised by 1-2% for 2025-26e. TP raised to SEK 260 (215), reiterate BUY.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK273.00) - Solid growth trajectory

We are largely in line with consensus on Q2 pre-tax profit, but we continue to believe the market underestimates TF Bank's robust profitability and growth potential in the coming years. We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK273 (224).

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK224.00) - High interest in high interest

Q1 extended TF Bank’s >9-year run of a near-constant >20% ROE. EPS grew by 24% YOY, and the Credit Cards growth outlook remains strong. The loan loss ratio also fell 20bp QOQ. We still see significant upside potential in the stock even on, in our view, our conservative estimates. After increasing our 2025–2026e EPS by 7–12%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK224 (206).

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK206.00) - Continued credit card growth

Our Q1 pre-tax profit forecast is in line with consensus, but we still believe the market underestimates TF Bank’s strong profitability and growth path in the next few years. We have made minor changes to our 2024–2025e EPS, reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK206 (202) due to the time value of money.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK202.00) - TF bull

Q4 continued the >9-year streak of a near-constant >20% ROE. With total lending volumes up 6% QOQ in local currencies, the growth outlook from Credit Cards remains strong. Loan losses were relatively stable with few surprises. We still see significant upside potential for the stock, even without any multiples expansion. With c1% higher 2024–2025e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK202 (196).

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK196.00) - Set for continued profitable growth

We expect continued strong growth on German credit cards, although with slight increases in credit losses and Credit Cards opex. We see little upside potential to consensus Q4e pre-tax profit but still believe the market is overlooking TF Bank’s likely solid profitability and growth trajectory over the next few years. After trimming our 2024–2025e EPS by c1–7%, we reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK196 (200).

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Profit or growth – it looks like both

The >8-year streak of near-constant >20% ROE continued in Q3 with a strong outlook for c20% annual lending growth and stable credit quality. We see upside to consensus pre-tax profit from cost efficiencies and mix shifts. With c5% higher 2024–2025e EPS, we reiterate BUY and have raised our target price to SEK200 (196).

TF Bank - Initiation of coverage - Cash or card?

TF Bank is a fast-growing Nordic consumer finance bank. The company has maintained a solid return on equity well above 20% for the past eight years, and we expect this to continue. Positioned for high earnings growth in the German credit card market, and with the stock trading at c25% below historical multiples, we view TF Bank stock as offering an attractive risk/reward. We initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK196 target price.

TF Bank - Likely to underperform in current environment

Solid Q3 report with 20% net profit growth y-o-y Estimate cuts from increased loan loss ratios for 2023e-24e Short-term potential limited, downgrade to HOLD (Buy)

TF Bank - Credit cards drives earnings growth in Q3

Q3 operating profit 1% above ABGSC, 2% above cons. Strong NII growth in Q3, up 6% q-o-q EPS revisions close to 0, stock trade in line with market