FX a drag but earnings scenario still attractive

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK500.00) - Fast and flourishing

We expect the focus with the Q1 results to be on a potential new growth target, which we believe will surprise on the upside, increasing market confidence in the growth trajectory. We also see upside potential on growth or capital distributions from deploying the bank’s excess capital. Having adjusted our estimates mostly for FX, we reiterate our BUY and SEK500 target price.

TF Bank AB: 1 director

A director at TF Bank AB sold 833 shares at 380.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Earnings growth set to continue

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK500.00) - “This isn’t even my final form”

Q4 adj. EPS fell just short of another ATH, up 32% YOY, with Credit Cards lending up c50% YOY (adj. for Rediem). Q4 saw a significant capital release from the Rediem sale, and we expect additional capital release as the sale is concluded. We see continued upside potential, with the stock still trading at

Q4 boosted by Rediem transaction

TF Bank Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following TF Bank’s announcement of the final estimated effects from the sale of Rediem to Alektum on the Q4 results. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK440 target price.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK440.00) - Onwards and upwards

TF Bank looks set to keep achieving solid profit growth, with further capital release and potential ROE accretion from the pending NPL sale. We find the stock attractive at a 2026e P/E of 8x, with quarterly EPS looking set to nearly double from now to end-2026e. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK440 (360).

Another strong quarter on the cards

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Just getting started

Q3 EPS hit a new record, up 42% YOY, and Credit Cards’ lending continues to grow at 58% YOY. Asset quality was also better QOQ, and management expects further improvements. We still see significant upside potential in the stock. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 5–8%, and reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of SEK360 (330).

Scalability coming through

Costs and loan losses drove strong Q3 beat

Positioned for sustainable earnings growth

Announces LOI to divest NPL portfolios

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK290.00) - BUY case intact

Q2 featured all-time high EPS, growing by 27% YOY, with the Credit Cards growth outlook remaining strong. Asset quality was also fairly stable on the whole. We still see significant upside potential in the stock even after it has risen 47% YTD. After increasing our 2024–2026e EPS by 2–3%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK290 (273).

Earnings growth set to remain strong

Q2 earnings beat driven by lower costs. EPS raised by 1-2%, EPS CAGR of 22% (‘23-‘26e). TP raised to SEK 270 (260), reiterate BUY.

Q2 beat driven by lower costs

Attractive earnings scenario not fully reflected

Operating profit to grow by 26% in Q2'24e. EPS raised by 1-2% for 2025-26e. TP raised to SEK 260 (215), reiterate BUY.

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK273.00) - Solid growth trajectory

We are largely in line with consensus on Q2 pre-tax profit, but we continue to believe the market underestimates TF Bank's robust profitability and growth potential in the coming years. We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK273 (224).

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK224.00) - High interest in high interest

Q1 extended TF Bank’s >9-year run of a near-constant >20% ROE. EPS grew by 24% YOY, and the Credit Cards growth outlook remains strong. The loan loss ratio also fell 20bp QOQ. We still see significant upside potential in the stock even on, in our view, our conservative estimates. After increasing our 2025–2026e EPS by 7–12%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK224 (206).