No surprises in our pre-summer lunch

Had a good run – time for a breather

Strong top-line & good AQ muted by higher costs. Adj. EPS up 5% and 1% amid higher NII & associates; costs weigh. Had a good run, and reflects fundamentals: down to HOLD (Buy).

SpareBank1 Nord-Norge (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - Loan-loss downtick

Helped by continued NII momentum and moderate loan losses, NONG reported a strong Q1 ROE of 17.8%, even with somewhat elevated cost inflation. Boosted by improved lending margins and decent lending growth, ‘real NII’ rose 1.7%, despite one less interest day and deposit margin pressure. While the CET1 ratio fell ~10bp QOQ, the bank has a solid ~120bp buffer to its 15.8% requirement, boding well for further generous dividend distributions. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continu...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK167.00) - Sustained NII momentum

Supported by further NII expansion, strong non-interest income and low loan losses, Q1 ROE was 16.0%, despite sustained cost pressure. Adjusted for the NOK59m positive one-off in Q4, ‘real NII’ rose another 7.3% QOQ, even with one fewer interest day. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK167 (161). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x, we continue to find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

Margins still to peak

Adj. PTP up 2%, driven by associates and asset quality. Adj. EPS'24e-25e up by 2% and 6% amid higher lending & NIM. Strong fundamentals shown in its fine valuation: HOLD.

Higher costs weigh on results

Adj. PTP -1% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons driven by weaker costs vs. cons. Cons. '24e-'26e EPS rev. likely down 1-4%

Stronger income, lower losses but high costs

Adj. PTP beat of 4% vs. ABGSCe, 3% vs. cons (amid lower LLP). Strong quality income beat, but adj cost mute give PBLL beat 1%. Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. up 1-2%, stock 1-3% today

Steady delivery usually gets a reward

Q1'24: adj. PTP +4% vs cons / +0% vs ABGSCe (better NII, softer fee). Reiterate guidance'25 lending NOK 15bn and ROE to 10-12%. Consensus could come up 1-3% for 24e- 25e; stock up 1-3%.

Storebrand ASA: 1 director

A director at Storebrand ASA maiden bought 10,000 shares at 106.500NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 59/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Striving to improve margins - up to BUY

Weather weight as expected, but a more bullish margin story evolving. We increase our estimates by 5-10% from improved UW. Up to BUY (Hold) with TP NOK 195 (171); 10% upside.

SpareBank1 SR-Bank (Buy, TP: NOK158.00) - Solid growth and asset quali...

With NII remaining at high levels and modest loan losses, SRBNK reported a Q1 ROE of 14.6% versus its >13% target. Following strong lending growth of 2.3% QOQ, the CET1 ratio was flat QOQ, with the bank highlighting cNOK2.5bn synergy potential from the pending merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge. We have made only minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.9x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and NOK158 target price.

In need of a higher ROE

Adj. PTP +10% vs. ABGSCe (lower cost and loan losses). EPS up +6%, +5% and 6% for '24e/25e/26e. Valuation in line with fundamentals: HOLD.

Gjensidige Forsikring (Buy, TP: NOK197.00) - Turning point in sight

Harsh weather during Q1 led to elevated claims and a combined ratio deterioration of 5.7%-points YOY despite insurance revenues growing 11% YOY. Adjusting for weather and other items, the claims ratio improved 0.2%-points YOY, a sign that the sharp repricing efforts during 2023 are starting to take effect. Combined with signs of abating claims frequencies and further repricing, we expect continued underwriting improvements. We reiterate our BUY, having raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3% and our tar...

Earnings growth = higher capital repatriation

Q1 was softer than our bullish expectation, but a clear cons beat. Overall estimates intact and SBB of NOK 1.1bn has started. Earnings growth should warrant higher P/E multiple - BUY.

Weather weighs on underwriting; life beat (corrected)

Adj. PTP -7% vs IR cons, -3% vs ABGSCe, as reported CR 92.6%. High premium growth of 11%, in line with us and cons. Cons. est. -1% to -3% amid UW, life mute; stock -1% to -4%

Stronger growth and better costs

Adj. PTP beat of 10% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs cons. driven by lower loan losses and better costs as income just soft. Cons. EPS chg. likely down 1-3%, stock likely flat to -2% today

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Signs of gradual improvement

Q1 PTP was up 30% YOY, largely driven by strong AUM growth and increased interest rates. The Insurance segment showed signs of improvement after several rounds of repricing in previous quarters, supporting the 2025 financial targets. Following regulatory approval and a 191% Solvency II ratio, Storebrand launched a NOK1.1bn buyback programme. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120) following ~4% positive EPS revisions for 2025e.

Better from insurance

DNB Bank ASA: 1 director

A director at DNB Bank ASA bought 6,000 shares at 205.710NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Repricing the tonic for bad weather

We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...