Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

A lot to like now organic growth has turned

Q1e: earnings beat as Network Solutions returned to org. growth. We raise '24e-'26e adj. EBITDA-capex by 3-4% on 3-4% higher sales. Low valuation, fruitful cost savings and easy comps: up to BUY (Hold).

Nel: Capacity reservation agreement with Hy Stor Energy

This morning, Nel announced a multi-year capacity reservation agreement (CRA) with Hy Stor Energy, representing more than 1GW of alkaline electrolyser capacity combined over 2025/2027, for its Mississippi Clean Hydrogen Hub (MCHH) project. The project is still pending regulatory approvals, financin

Tough comps, but solid underlying progress

Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK625.00) - An early spring

Last night Royal Unibrew reported Q1 results early and raised its 2024 guidance due to efficiency improvements and acquisition-related benefits being achieved ahead of plan. This was a much-needed announcement considering the number of negative earnings revisions and market concerns related to the recent acquisitions. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK625 (600).

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK3.50) - Rough start to the year

Nel reported soft Q1 figures, with revenue at its lowest since Q3 2022 (adjusted for the Nikola one-off gain), and EBITDA below our estimate. Put in context with poor backlog coverage for 2025e, the lack of large orders remains a concern and success is required in the near term. We have lowered our revenue for 2024e by 10% and for 2025e by 6%. We reiterate our SELL and NOK3.5 target price.

Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK600.00) - Solid start to the year

We expect Royal Unibrew to have a solid start to the year from a top-line perspective, while profitably is likely to be subdued due to revaluation of inventories when it reports Q1 results (due in the afternoon on 30 April). Despite our view that organic EBIT growth in Q1e will be below the 2024 guidance, Q1 is typically a small quarter and with profitability set to pick up throughout the year, we expect the guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and DKK600 target price.

Nel: Slowdown starting FY24

This morning, Nel has reported Q1 2024 revenue at NOK387m, which is 30% below consensus (NOK550m). This was also sequentially slower than in Q4 2023 (-28% QoQ), but still higher on an annual basis (+14% YoY). While customer deliveries slowed in Q1, Nel benefited from the renegotiation of Nikola's s

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK3.50) - Facing one-off tailwind in Q1

We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK4m, well above consensus of NOK-59m, as we believe consensus does not fully capture one-off gains related to compensation for the cancellation of the Nikola agreement. We still see a risk to collections of the missing payments from its largest client last year (representing 26% of revenue), and any comment on this project should be key. Still-limited order intake raises concerns about future growth, as our estimates and consensus assume large-scale orders materialisin...

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Solid Q1 order intake expected

With no asset divestments of Commercial Development (CD) projects, we expect Q1 group EBIT to be below Infront consensus (results due at c07:30 CET on 8 May). However, with the strong announced orders, we expect a beat on order intake. KPIs in Residential Development (RD) are likely to be weak, we believe, but up from the all-time lows last year. We reiterate our BUY and SOTP-based target price of SEK225.

Nel: tapping further on US subsidies

Yesterday, Nel announced additional support from the US DoE and the state of Michigan regarding its 4GW electrolyser production plant project in the country. USD75m in cash incentives and grants will be made available to Nel at the time of the project's FID. This adds to last year's USD50m US DoE s

Royal Unibrew A S: 1 director

A director at Royal Unibrew A S bought 2,300 shares at 432.070DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...