Ice Group (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Discontinuing coverage

Following the acquisition of Ice Group Scandinavia Holdings AS and associated assets by Lyse AS, we have discontinued coverage of Ice Group. We withdrew our recommendation and target price on the stock on 22 November; our last published estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Ice Group (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Financing solution needed soon

Q4 EBITDA significantly outperformed our expectation, and we have updated our forecasts accordingly. Still, the company’s strained financial situation is the most pressing issue. Management is in discussion with several investor groups and expressed confidence in its ability to protect creditors, but suggested that the current equity value is at risk. Given DNB Markets’ role as Financial Advisor to Ice Group ASA in its process of assessing potential refinancing alternatives we continue to have n...

Ice Group (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Long-term view required

Long-term view required A combination of reduced targets, more investments short-term and an uncovered capital raise caused a share-price meltdown last week. Assuming a successful ‘soft restructuring’, we believe this could represent an opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a de-risked asset with solid return potential in a quality market. Given DNB Markets’ advisory role, we have suspended our recommendation and target price.

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK22.00) - Tougher competition, debt catalyst

Gains in the more quality-oriented segment of the Norwegian mobile market is still a couple of years off, in our view. At the same time, data allowance inflation in the no-frills segment is challenging Ice’s more-for-more strategy. Still, Ice should be able to gain from an increased build-out, reopening and a potential Goldentree debt agreement. We reiterate our BUY, while we have lowered our target price to NOK22 (24).

Northern Lights

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - Industrial plan on track

Ice posted Q3 figures which, importantly, beat our ARPU and service revenue forecasts. The industrial plan to roll out Norway’s third, leanest and most modern mobile network is largely on track. While it depends on a set of financing assumptions, our long-term investment case is unchanged and we reiterate our BUY and NOK26 target price.

Northern Lights

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - The GT drag

While likely light on substance, the Goldentree lawsuit has put a lid on the Ice stock, we believe related to the refinancing due this winter. Meanwhile, the Q3 results should provide some operational comfort and signs of continued progress to investors, in our opinion. While we reiterate our BUY and bullish long-term view, we have lowered our target price to NOK26 (35).

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK35.00) - Set for a doubling

With a more benign cash flow outlook given the latest news relating to 5G licence terms and the new Telia agreement, we have considerably scaled back the forecast need for new capital and now see a new equity offering as more of an option to secure the best possible refinancing terms. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK35 (having only recently raised it from NOK21 to NOK29).

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK35.00) - Set for a doubling

With a more benign cash flow outlook given the latest news relating to 5G licence terms and the new Telia agreement, we have considerably scaled back the forecast need for new capital and now see a new equity offering as more of an option to secure the best possible refinancing terms. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK35 (having only recently raised it from NOK21 to NOK29).

Northern Lights

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK29.00) - Financial clouds clearing

The new convertible bond has materially lowered the financial risk in Ice, we believe. We see several positive catalysts over the coming months and have raised our target price to NOK29 (21). We reiterate our BUY.

Northern Lights

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Untapped potential

After several quarters of delivering according to expectations, Ice missed the mark in a quarter affected by a less predictable Covid-19 environment. We have lowered our revenue and EBITDA forecasts, and have reduced our heavily discounted target price to NOK21 (23), seeing substantial upside potential in the event of balance-sheet relief. We maintain our BUY.

Northern Lights

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Financing plan in focus in Q2e

Allowing for subscriber growth to be affected by a shrinking physical retail channel, we expect the operational side of Ice to be otherwise on track for the Q2e results. Our focus will be on the company’s financing plans, given the short remaining financing runway and upside potential in the event this would be solved. We reiterate our BUY and NOK23 target price.

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Operational tick; financials tick next

Given the special market circumstances in March 2020, which are now gradually improving in Norway, we believe Ice performed reasonably well once again in Q1. We believe investor interest could be picking up before the next expected financing round, and that the stock has substantial upside potential in the event of a liquidity runway extension and eventually a full (re)financing of the company. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK23 (21).

Northern Lights

Ice Group (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Expect update on financing options

Ice Group (ICE NO, Buy) - Expect update on financing options (17 pages)

Northern Lights