In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Xtep’s 1H25 revenue exceeded its full-year target of positive growth. Retail sellthrough demonstrated improved performance in July vs June, reinforcing our confidence that the company will achieve its full-year targets of positive revenue growth and over 10% net profit growth. Going forward, Saucony will further expand its lifestyle apparel and OG products, and Merrell will become the company’s next key focus for development in 1-2 years. Maintain BUY with target price at HK$8.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30) CR Bldg Mat’s 1H25 earnings rose 85% yoy to Rmb306.7m, in line with expectations. Gross margin increased to 18.5% (+3.5ppt) on firmer cement ASP and cheaper coal. Cement volumes fell 12.6% yoy as pricing discipline took priority. Concrete sales rose 36% yoy on supply chain integration...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30): 1H25: In line; cement margins rebound, concrete delivers growth. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$37.06/Target: HK$50.00): 1H25: Results beat; increases revenue growth guidance to high double-digit. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK$7.91/Target: HK$10.50): 1H25: R...
The core Xtep brand recorded low single-digit retail sell-through growth in 2Q25, with momentum in Jul 25 improving from Jun 25. With new running product launches in 2H25, management is confident in achieving the full-year targets of revenue growth and over 10% net profit growth. For Saucony, its store expansion is expected to accelerate in 2H25. The company is on track to achieve its mid-term target of doubling Saucony’s revenue within three years. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.34/Target: HK$8.00) The core Xtep brand recorded low single-digit retail sell-through growth in 2Q25, with momentum in Jul 25 improving from Jun 25. With new running product launches in 2H25, management is confident in achieving the full-year targets of revenue growth and over 10% net profit growth. For Saucony, its store expansion is expected to accelerate in 2H25. The company is on track to achieve its mid-term target of dou...
GREATER CHINA Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.34/Target: HK$8.00) Confident in achieving full-year targets; Saucony on track to reach mid-term goal. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Bank KB Bukopin (BBKP IJ/NOT RATED/Rp60) Turnaround hinges on CoF reduction. MALAYSIA Update Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK/HOLD/RM20.46/Target: RM20.50) We expect 3QFY25 results to come in flat qoq, supported by firmer plantation output and lower forex ...
During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
In 1Q25, the core Xtep brand achieved a mid-single-digit retail sell-through growth, and the momentum has remained in line with management’s expectations month to date. The company maintains its targets of achieving positive revenue growth and a >10% net profit growth for 2025. For Saucony, management is confident of achieving 30-40% sales growth in 2025 and aims to double both the revenue and store efficiency over the next 3-5 years. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$8.00.
2024 results were in line. For 2025, Xtep targets positive revenue growth and >10% net profit growth, with potential upside if the consumption environment improves. It plans to transition the core Xtep brand to a DTC model, with 400-500 Xtep branded stores to be involved in 2H25-2026. Saucony is expected to achieve 30-40% sales growth in 2025 and to double the sales in three years. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 2% to HK$8.00.
GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$28.50/Target: HK$39.90): 2024: Results miss; a strong start and positive outlook for 2025. KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$67.20/Target: HK$80.00): 4Q24: Solid top-line beat; earnings miss; expecting stabilised outlook in 2025. WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$72.35/Target: HK$90.00): 2024: Results satisfactory; targets continued operations for accelerated revenue growth of 10-15% yoy in 2025. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$57.65/Target: HK$63.90...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$28.50/Target: HK$39.90) 2024 results missed forecasts. However, CR Beer’s ytd performance and management’s tone for 2025 seem positive. With the ongoing consumption recovery, especially in the restaurant channel, a potentially better peak season, a much heathier inventory level and innovative products and partnerships, management expects a single-digit beer volume growth in 2025, with profit expanding much faster than revenue. Dividend...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
In 4Q24, the core Xtep brand achieved high single-digit retail sell-through growth, bringing the full-year growth to a high single digit. Ytd, the brand has recorded doubledigit retail sell-through growth, leading to management’s relatively optimistic view on the revenue and profit targets for 2025. Saucony achieved full-year retail sell-through growth of >60% yoy. Management remains confident in its rapid growth and profitability improvement going forward. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 5%...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures persisted in December, as CPI inflation slowed further to 0.1% yoy, while PPI inflation improved to -2.3% yoy in December, despite remaining in negative territory. In contrast, core CPI inflation saw a consecutive uptick to 0.4% yoy, while services CPI inflation edged higher to 0.5% yoy. In addition, the rebound in global commodity prices lifted producer goods PPI and is expected to provide further upside bias in the coming months. Sec...
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