Xtep’s 2025 revenue/earnings missed market consensus by 2%/1% respectively. For 2026, management expects total revenue to achieve mid-single-digit growth, with the core Xtep brand also recording growth. Operating margin is expected to remain in the high single-digit range. In the professional sports segment, management expects Saucony’s revenue to grow 20-30% in 2026, with an improvement in operating margin. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 9% to HK$6.90.
Top Stories Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting s...
Greater China Company Results | China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK/BUY/HK$16.32/Target: HK$23.20) Mengniu’s 2025 core net profit was Rmb3,960m (-11% yoy). Ytd, liquid milk revenue has achieved high single-digit growth, driven by increases in both volume and price. For 2026, management has prioritised revenue growth, targeting mid-single-digit growth, and it also aims to maintain a stable or slightly improved operating margin. It has introduced a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-27), targeting ...
The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our preferred stocks include Anta, CR Beer, CTG...
In 4Q25, the core Xtep brand recorded flat retail sell-through growth, bringing the full-year retail sell-through growth to low single-digit levels. The discount level remained stable at 25-30% and channel inventory turnover was around 4.5 months as of end-4Q25. In 4Q25, Saucony’s retail sell-through growth rebounded to over 30%, bringing the full-year retail sellthrough growth above 30%. Management is confident that revenue will double by 2027, with operating margin gradually improving. Maintai...
Greater China Sector Update | Hong Kong Property Stronger local discretionary consumption supported positive growth in Hong Kong retail sales in 2H25, while the decline in visitors’ per capita spend moderated. Office rents remained under pressure but showed early signs of stabilisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong landlords. Link REIT remains our top pick despite a lower DPU forecast. We fine-tune Wharf REIC’s earnings and maintain BUY, while upgrading Hysan’s earnings and target price b...
Top Stories Sector Update | Hong Kong Property Stronger local discretionary consumption supported positive growth in Hong Kong retail sales in 2H25, while the decline in visitors’ per capita spend moderated. Office rents remained under pressure but showed early signs of stabilisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong landlords. Link REIT remains our top pick despite a lower DPU forecast. We fine-tune Wharf REIC’s earnings and maintain BUY, while upgrading Hysan’s earnings and target price bu...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
At the NDR with Xtep in Thailand and Malaysia, management reiterated its full-year targets. It expects Saucony’s revenue to double by 2027 vs 2024, supported by 30-40 new store openings annually and robust same-store sales growth. Management highlighted that the core Xtep brand maintains strong price competitiveness through its mass-market series, particularly in Tier 3 and 4 cities where consumers are more price-sensitive. It expects inventory value to trend downward to below Rmb2b by year-end....
Top Stories Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second‑hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% of 2019’s...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
Highlights In 3Q25, the core Xtep brand achieved a low single-digit retail sell-through growth, with momentum in July-August stronger than that in September. By channel, online retail sell-through continued to outperform offline. The 11.11 pre-sale performance was in line with management’s expectations, and the overall discount level remained largely unchanged. In 3Q25, Saucony achieved >20% retail sell-through growth, but its online performance was dragged by operational adjustments. Manag...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Xtep’s 1H25 revenue exceeded its full-year target of positive growth. Retail sellthrough demonstrated improved performance in July vs June, reinforcing our confidence that the company will achieve its full-year targets of positive revenue growth and over 10% net profit growth. Going forward, Saucony will further expand its lifestyle apparel and OG products, and Merrell will become the company’s next key focus for development in 1-2 years. Maintain BUY with target price at HK$8.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30) CR Bldg Mat’s 1H25 earnings rose 85% yoy to Rmb306.7m, in line with expectations. Gross margin increased to 18.5% (+3.5ppt) on firmer cement ASP and cheaper coal. Cement volumes fell 12.6% yoy as pricing discipline took priority. Concrete sales rose 36% yoy on supply chain integration...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Keeping an eye on JBM Healthcare’s upcoming marketing campaigns in 2H25. Results China Resources Building Materials Technology (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.92/Target: HK$2.30): 1H25: In line; cement margins rebound, concrete delivers growth. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$37.06/Target: HK$50.00): 1H25: Results beat; increases revenue growth guidance to high double-digit. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK$7.91/Target: HK$10.50): 1H25: R...
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