In 3Q24, the core Xtep brand recorded mid-single-digit retail sell-through growth, weaker than management’s expectation. Although there has been a sequential improvement in business operations qtd, the company deems it challenging to achieve the full-year revenue target. Inventory and discount remained healthy. Management intends to prioritise inventory and profit rather than pursuing fast retail sell-through growth, expecting improved discounts for this year’s Double 11. Maintain BUY. Target pr...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) HKEX reported a 6.5% yoy earnings growth in 3Q24 after a sharp increase in headline ADT following the rollout of stimulus packages by China in late-September. Although market velocity has normalised, ADT remains elevated, and NII could be more resilient going forward, suggesting more upside for earnings. The risk-to-reward ratio is more balanced now after the recent correction as HKEX is trading ...
GREATER CHINA Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) 3Q24: Risk-and-reward is more balanced. Upgrade to BUY. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb24.42/Target: Rmb22.70) 3Q24: Net profit misses, but visibility of recovery improving. Downgrade to HOLD. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$62.15/Target: US$85.00) 1QFY25: In line; moderated growth outlook in 2QFY25 on low seasonality. Update Xtep International Holdings (...
China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
For Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, tourism, duty-free shopping and home appliance consumption were the bright spots. Domestic tourism and duty-free shopping had the strongest recovery among mini breaks this year. For the home appliance sector, trade-in policies are beginning to stimulate consumer demand. We prefer companies that: a) are disciplined in business operation; b) have good prospects in overseas business; and c) maintain healthy inventories. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea...
After the 2Q24/1H24 results, we are now more cautious on China’s consumer sector. For consumer discretionary, domestic operations were impacted by weak offline traffic. Companies remained concrete on overseas expansion and became more disciplined on cost control to protect the margin level amid the slower top-line growth. For consumer staple, we observed slower product mix upgrade. Companies adopted proactive shipment control to manage channel inventories. Operating efficiency improvement became...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 14.7% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. Consumer 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectations; disciplined operations matter. INDONESIA Update Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp680/Target: Rp900) ...
Retail sales of the core Xtep brand saw a slight increase in the offline channel, and rose >20% yoy in the online channel during Jul-Aug 24. Management now expects a lower revenue growth this year, which we estimate to be in the mid to high single digit. However, given: a) strengthened expense control, b) proactive inventory and discount management, and c) narrowing of losses thanks to the divestiture of KP, management expects net profit to grow >20% yoy in 2024. Maintain BUY and target price of...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$44.40/Target: HK$70.00) Kuaishou delivered a solid 2Q24 earnings beat. Revenue increased 12% yoy to Rmb31b, in line with consensus estimate. Gross profit margin improved 5ppt yoy to 55%. Non-IFRS profit for the period grew 74% yoy to Rmb4.7b, beating consensus forecast. Management guided a lukewarm 3Q24 revenue growth of 11-12% due to a subdued macro backdrop with earnings to exceed Rmb4b and in line with consensus estimate. Maintain...
GREATER CHINA Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$44.40/Target: HK$70.00): 2Q24: Solid earnings beat; strategic focus on AIGC monetisation. Poly Property Services (6049 HK/BUY/HK$25.25 /Target: HK$37.30): 1H24: Earnings in line on improved operational efficiency; expansion and cash generation capabilities weakened. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK/HOLD/HK$13.12/Target: HK$14.00): 2Q24: Results in line; shifting focus to margin improvement amid soft macro environment. Downgrade to HOLD. ...
The core Xtep brand’s offline sales performance in 1H24 was below management’s expectations, and the weak momentum has yet to recover. Management now has a more conservative tone on the full-year targets, expecting core Xtep brand to achieve >10% retail sell-through growth in 2024. The company also aims to slow down the store opening pace for the core Xtep brand, given the decline of same-store sales in 1H24. Maintain BUY and increase target price by 3% to HK$7.20 to reflect the KP divestiture.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.00/Target: HK$7.20) The core Xtep brand’s offline sales performance in 1H24 was below management’s expectations, and the weak momentum has yet to recover. Management now has a more conservative tone on the full-year targets, expecting core Xtep brand to achieve >10% retail sell-through growth in 2024. The company also aims to slow down the store opening pace for the core Xtep brand, given the decline of same-store sales in 1H24...
GREATER CHINA Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.00/Target: HK$7.20): Weak offline sales in 1H24; more conservative tone on full-year targets. INDONESIA Update Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,840/Target: Rp5,800): Focus on restructuring micro segment; to grow corporate segment instead. MALAYSIA Update Alpha IVF (ALPHA MK/BUY/RM0.315/Target: RM0.40): Alhaya is humming along nicely. Maintain BUY and target price of RM0.40. Malakoff Corporation (MLK MK/BUY/RM0.825/Target:...
2024’s 618 overall GMV was down by 7% yoy. By channel, livestreaming platforms continued to gain momentum, with GMV up 12% yoy, while the cosmetics category saw a significant shift towards livestreaming platforms. By brand, domestic cosmetics and sportswear brands recorded strong performances. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, consumer services, experiential spending (eg tourism) and lower-tier cities continued to lead the growth. For China’s consumer sector, we keep Anta, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks. At the same time, we add Miniso but remove CR Beer and Midea from the stock picks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential spending, and lower-tier cities lead growth. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp4,300/Target: Rp4,300) Issuance of new shares to complete the divestment process. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications 1Q24 earnings up 14% yoy on the back ...
During the Labour Day holiday, tourism and catering continued to record strong performances, while DF per capita spending showed a downward trend. We reiterate our key theses for the consumer sector, highlighting companies with: a) overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) upside potential of improving operating efficiency, or c) near-term catalysts. We keep Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks, but remove Galaxy from the stock picks. Mainta...
The core Xtep brand recorded a high single-digit % yoy growth in retail sell-through in 1Q24, and the growth accelerated to double-digit% in April. With the high-base effect fading away, continuous new product launches, and quick orders from products launched in 1Q24, management expects retail sell-through to achieve double-digit% yoy growth in 2Q24 and 2024. Maintain BUY and target price of HKS7.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales up 21% yoy/19% wow in the second week of April, in line. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Results Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb18.95/Target: Rm17.10) 4Q23: Misses expectations on operating expenses. Margin pressure may continue through 2024. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$4.46/Target: HK$7.00) Expect double-digit% yoy growth in retail sell-through for 2Q24 and 2024....
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