reports
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK): Expect double-digit% yoy growth...
The core Xtep brand recorded a high single-digit % yoy growth in retail sell-through in 1Q24, and the growth accelerated to double-digit% in April. With the high-base effect fading away, continuous new product launches, and quick orders from products launched in 1Q24, management expects retail sell-through to achieve double-digit% yoy growth in 2Q24 and 2024. Maintain BUY and target price of HKS7.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Friday, April 19, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales up 21% yoy/19% wow in the second week of April, in line. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Results Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb18.95/Target: Rm17.10) 4Q23: Misses expectations on operating expenses. Margin pressure may continue through 2024. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$4.46/Target: HK$7.00) Expect double-digit% yoy growth in retail sell-through for 2Q24 and 2024....
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, April 19, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV sales up 21% yoy/19% wow in the second week of April, in line. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Results Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb18.95/Target: Rm17.10): 4Q23: Misses expectations on operating expenses. Margin pressure may continue through 2024. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$4.46/Target: HK$7.00): Expect double-digit% yoy growth in retail sell-through for 2Q24 and 2024. IN...
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
China Consumer: Focus on four key theses for the sector.
In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
333 MIDEA GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Xtep (1368 HK): 2023: Results miss; conservative outlook for 2024.
Xtep’s 2023 results slightly missed our expectations by 2%, given a lower-thanexpected revenue growth and higher opex. The company’s retail sales achieved modest yoy growth ytd, given the high base and still-tepid consumer demand. Looking into 2024, management expects the company to achieve >10% revenue yoy growth, which seems conservative to us. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 13% to HK$7.00.
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, March 19, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: 2M24 data a mixed bag; property FAI remains a drag. Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$37.95/Target: HK$65.50): 2023: Results in line; ambitious premiumisation targets. Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK/HOLD/HK$6.21/Target: HK$6.10): 2023: Earnings slightly above profit warning; stimulus may give upside to 2024. Xtep (1368 HK/BUY/HK$4.54/Target: HK$7.00): 2023: Results miss; conservative outlook for 2024. INDONESIA ASEAN Gems Conference Highlights ...
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, March 19, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity 2M24 data a mixed bag; property FAI remains a drag. Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$37.95/Target: HK$65.50) 2023: Results in line; ambitious premiumisation targets. Kingboard Laminates (1888 HK/HOLD/HK$6.21/Target: HK$6.10) 2023: Earnings slightly above profit warning; stimulus may give upside to 2024. Xtep (1368 HK/BUY/HK$4.54/Target: HK$7.00) 2023: Results miss; conservative outlook for 2024. TRADERS’ CORNER Alibaba Health Information...
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
China Consumer: Tourism, catering and movie consumption: Strong perfor...
During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
ADCB ABU DHABI COMMERCIAL BANK
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
0606923D CHINA DUTY FREE GROUP CO LTD
6862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
2331 LI NING CO LTD
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
9922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD
ONEM 1LIFE HEALTHCARE
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK): Sales target met and inventorie...
The core Xtep brand recorded >30% retail sell-through growth in 4Q23, bringing the full-year sell-through growth to >20%, meeting the company’s target. Although discounts deepened to about 30% mainly due to inventory clearance, inventory turnover returned to a healthy level. Management projects double-digit revenue growth in 2024. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 16% to HK$8.00 to reflect the slower growth in 2023 and industry headwinds of destocking and rising competition.
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, January 10, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property 2024 outlook for Hong Kong retail market and landlords. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$3.81/Target: HK$8.00) Sales target met and inventories normalised; aiming for double-digit revenue growth in 2024. TRADERS’ CORNER Trip.com Group Limited (9961 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$290.00-295.00 China Power International (2380 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$2.85-2.90
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, January 10, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: 2024 outlook for Hong Kong retail market and landlords. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$3.81/Target: HK$8.00): Sales target met and inventories normalised; aiming for double-digit revenue growth in 2024. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,110/Target: Rp2,500): Data traffic on New Year’s Eve 90% higher than normal days; maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Gabungan AQRS (AQRS MK/BUY/RM0.36/Target: RM0.44): Resilient near-term outlook from soli...
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK): Revenue guidance revised down y...
The core Xtep brand recorded a high single-digit yoy growth during 11.11, weaker than management expectations. As such, management revised down the full-year revenue and profit guidance to double-digit growth. However, management is confident about achieving the retail sales target of 20% yoy growth thanks to the strong offline sales momentum. Furthermore, after the online inventory clearance, we expect inventories to improve in 4Q23. Maintain BUY. Target price: HKS9.50.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kate Luang
- Kochakorn Sutaruksanon
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, November 14, 2023
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: A little less to cheer. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Riding on the wave of AI PC; Thunder Software Technology is a beneficiary. Sector Internet: 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to drive sector growth; potential positive surprise from online game grossing. Internet: Muted growth acceleration from 11.11 campaign. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$6.43/Target: HK$9.50): Revenue guidance revised down yet sales target maintai...
FR FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC.
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
BEM BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Ming San Soong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, November 14, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply A little less to cheer. Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Riding on the wave of AI PC; Thunder Software Technology is a beneficiary. Sector Internet 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to drive sector growth; potential positive surprise from online game grossing. Internet Muted growth acceleration from 11.11 campaign. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$6.43/Target: HK$9.50) Revenue guidance revised down yet sales target mainta...
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK): Expect good sales momentum to c...
The core Xtep brand recorded high-teens% and >30% retail sales yoy growth in 3Q23 and during the Golden Week, mainly driven by volume growth. Management is optimistic that the company will achieve >30% retail sales yoy growth in 4Q23 and the full-year targets. New brands performed better than management’s expectations. The potential introduction of investors for new brands will drive the stock’s re-rating, in our view. Maintain BUY and target price of HKS11.00.
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Terence Chiu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, October 17, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Eyeing VR events in 4Q23; beneficiary: Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery. Sector Commodities Weekly: Safe-haven assets rally on flight-to-safety bids. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$7.08/Target: HK$11.00) Expect good sales momentum to continue; potential introduction of investors for new brands to be catalyst. TRADERS’ CORNER Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (2338 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$10.80-11.10 Kunlun Energy Company Limited (135 HK):...
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Kochakorn Sutaruksanon
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, October 17, 2023
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Eyeing VR events in 4Q23; beneficiary: Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery. Sector Commodities: Weekly: Safe-haven assets rally on flight-to-safety bids. Update Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$7.08/Target: HK$11.00): Expect good sales momentum to continue; potential introduction of investors for new brands to be catalyst. INDONESIA Update Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/BUY/Rp66/Target: Rp121): Likely growth in GTV and improvement in adjusted EBITDA in...
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
China Consumer: Good recovery by domestic tourism and catering during ...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO LTD
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
333 MIDEA GROUP
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
6862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
2331 LI NING CO LTD
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
9922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD
ONEM 1LIFE HEALTHCARE
1876:HK BUDWEISER BREWING CO APAC LTD
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Jo Yee Ng
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
Sportswear Sector - Early-October An Entry Point; Anta As New Top Pick
China’s sportswear companies saw improvements in retail sales momentum from August to early-September due to back-to-school demand. Share prices of Chinese sportswear names have corrected by 8-20% since 4 Sep 23 (vs HSI's -8%), and the current valuation is undemanding (14.1-21.5x 2023F PE). Considering a couple of upcoming catalysts, we think early-October is an appropriate entry point for the sportswear sector. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with Anta as our new top pick. • What we learned from Nike’s 1QF...
- Jo Yee Ng
- Stella Guo Yuting
China Sportswear: 1H23 results wrap-up: Expect better sales growth mom...
Chinese sportswear companies’ modest top-line growth in 1H23 reflected a lukewarm consumption recovery momentum. We expect the sales growth momentum to improve in 4Q23, helped by sportswear companies’ destocking promotions and the low base. Current valuation of China’s sportswear sector is undemanding, which has reflected the capital market’s lowered expectations on sales momentum in 3Q23. We maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s sportswear sector.
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