During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
In 1Q25, the core Xtep brand achieved a mid-single-digit retail sell-through growth, and the momentum has remained in line with management’s expectations month to date. The company maintains its targets of achieving positive revenue growth and a >10% net profit growth for 2025. For Saucony, management is confident of achieving 30-40% sales growth in 2025 and aims to double both the revenue and store efficiency over the next 3-5 years. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$8.00.
2024 results were in line. For 2025, Xtep targets positive revenue growth and >10% net profit growth, with potential upside if the consumption environment improves. It plans to transition the core Xtep brand to a DTC model, with 400-500 Xtep branded stores to be involved in 2H25-2026. Saucony is expected to achieve 30-40% sales growth in 2025 and to double the sales in three years. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 2% to HK$8.00.
GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$28.50/Target: HK$39.90): 2024: Results miss; a strong start and positive outlook for 2025. KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$67.20/Target: HK$80.00): 4Q24: Solid top-line beat; earnings miss; expecting stabilised outlook in 2025. WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$72.35/Target: HK$90.00): 2024: Results satisfactory; targets continued operations for accelerated revenue growth of 10-15% yoy in 2025. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$57.65/Target: HK$63.90...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$28.50/Target: HK$39.90) 2024 results missed forecasts. However, CR Beer’s ytd performance and management’s tone for 2025 seem positive. With the ongoing consumption recovery, especially in the restaurant channel, a potentially better peak season, a much heathier inventory level and innovative products and partnerships, management expects a single-digit beer volume growth in 2025, with profit expanding much faster than revenue. Dividend...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
In 4Q24, the core Xtep brand achieved high single-digit retail sell-through growth, bringing the full-year growth to a high single digit. Ytd, the brand has recorded doubledigit retail sell-through growth, leading to management’s relatively optimistic view on the revenue and profit targets for 2025. Saucony achieved full-year retail sell-through growth of >60% yoy. Management remains confident in its rapid growth and profitability improvement going forward. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 5%...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures persisted in December, as CPI inflation slowed further to 0.1% yoy, while PPI inflation improved to -2.3% yoy in December, despite remaining in negative territory. In contrast, core CPI inflation saw a consecutive uptick to 0.4% yoy, while services CPI inflation edged higher to 0.5% yoy. In addition, the rebound in global commodity prices lifted producer goods PPI and is expected to provide further upside bias in the coming months. Sec...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Positive signs amid deflationary pressures. Sector Automobile: Weekly: OEMs set ambitious 2025 targets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare: Stay focused, stay innovative. Update Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$6.25/Target:HK$8.50): Ping An to consolidate PAGD with no privatisation intended; bright outlook for strategic businesses with increased synergies. Xtep International Holdings (1368 HK/BUY/HK$5.6...
There are ongoing diverging consumption trends in China’s sportswear sector. Consumers remain value-conscious, while outdoor functional wear and niche categories have been gaining momentum. Sportswear companies achieved Double 11 sales in line with internal expectations and discounts improved yoy. However, it is still uncertain on achieving retail sales targets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. The top pick is Anta given its strong execution and high earnings visibility.
In 3Q24, the core Xtep brand recorded mid-single-digit retail sell-through growth, weaker than management’s expectation. Although there has been a sequential improvement in business operations qtd, the company deems it challenging to achieve the full-year revenue target. Inventory and discount remained healthy. Management intends to prioritise inventory and profit rather than pursuing fast retail sell-through growth, expecting improved discounts for this year’s Double 11. Maintain BUY. Target pr...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) HKEX reported a 6.5% yoy earnings growth in 3Q24 after a sharp increase in headline ADT following the rollout of stimulus packages by China in late-September. Although market velocity has normalised, ADT remains elevated, and NII could be more resilient going forward, suggesting more upside for earnings. The risk-to-reward ratio is more balanced now after the recent correction as HKEX is trading ...
GREATER CHINA Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) 3Q24: Risk-and-reward is more balanced. Upgrade to BUY. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb24.42/Target: Rmb22.70) 3Q24: Net profit misses, but visibility of recovery improving. Downgrade to HOLD. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$62.15/Target: US$85.00) 1QFY25: In line; moderated growth outlook in 2QFY25 on low seasonality. Update Xtep International Holdings (...
China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
For Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, tourism, duty-free shopping and home appliance consumption were the bright spots. Domestic tourism and duty-free shopping had the strongest recovery among mini breaks this year. For the home appliance sector, trade-in policies are beginning to stimulate consumer demand. We prefer companies that: a) are disciplined in business operation; b) have good prospects in overseas business; and c) maintain healthy inventories. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea...
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