We are putting our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: Addiko Bank Alro Arion banki Bogdanka Cognor Holding DataWalk Gradus Grenevia Islandsbanki Kety TeraPlast
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: 2Q23 - strong quarter with more capital returns POSITIVE • Photon Energy: cuts FY23E EBITDA guidance by 66%, to EUR 10m NEGATIVE • Dino: 2Q23 EBITDA misses both our and the market's expectations by 3-5% NEUTRAL • Turkcell: 2Q23 results - FY23E guidance upgraded, dividends still uncertain NEUTRAL • BIM: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line beat expectations NEUTRAL • Ulker: 2Q23 results - bottom line as expected NEUTRAL • Addiko Bank: solid 2Q23, wit...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • CCC: it's just a flesh wound (stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: solid beat in 1Q23 results, supporting high dividend expectations for 2023E • ING BSK: solid 1Q23 results - supportive of the FY23E delivery NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: good 1Q23 results, driven by strong pricing POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q23 broadly in line with expectations, sound OCF NEUTRAL • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q23 results - EBITDA declines 6% • CEZ: 1Q23 results - net income in line, dividend and guidance offer no surprise...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • PZU: solid 4Q22 delivery, no dividend recommendation yet POSITIVE • Allegro: small beat in 4Q22 results; guidance for continued growth in 1Q23E POSITIVE • Tauron: 4Q22 results - in line with prelims NEUTRAL • DataWalk: preliminary 4Q22 results - sales down 31% yoy, to PLN 7.51m, 37% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Czech Republic macro: MPC firms up against rate cut expectations • Kazakhstan macro: Tokayev announces continued push for political reforms, but calls for higher taxes • O...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: weaker-than-expected 4Q22 results, disappointing dividend proposal NEGATIVE • Enea: 4Q22 prelims - unimpressive numbers, depressed by weak operations and supply provisions NEUTRAL • Addiko Bank: 4Q22 results review - net profit almost double vs. 2021 • Greece macro: Greek GDP grows 5.9% in 2022 • Georgia macro: significant protests against the law on foreign agents • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q22 beats consensus estimates, management upbeat on outlook POSITIVE • Benefit Syste...
EME Equity Market – December 2022 Market performance – Turkey closed the year by outperforming the other markets, yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.0% mom in EUR terms and 5.9% mom in USD in December. Turkey was, again, the best performer, with the ISE30 index adding 6.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in local currency terms. Positive performances were recorded by the WIG20 (+3.1% EUR / 3.2% lcl mom) and the ASE indices (+1.9% EUR mom) as well. On the other side, the Hungarian BUX de...
HEADLINES: • Icelandic Banks: the outliers (initiating on Arion banki with a BUY and Islandsbanki with a HOLD) • OTP Bank: should fare well, absent more negative events (upgraded to BUY) • LPP: 3Q22 below expectations on costs pressure; strong Black Friday sales; FY22E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • US macro: Fed sticking to its hawkish message • NLB Group: constitutional court annuls FX law • Addiko Bank: Slovenian Constitutional Court rejects retroactive Swiss Franc Law POSITIVE • Mytilin...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: beat on bottom line in 3Q22 driven by stronger pick-up in NII POSITIVE • CEZ: 3Q22 results review - strong P&L beat, NI guidance hiked by CZK 5-10bn POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 3Q22 results, solid outlook and further material growth in the card base POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: update on the review of options regarding the investment in Calypso Fitness NEUTRAL • OTP Bank: strong headline net profit beat in 3Q22, but core operations start to show minor weakness NEUTRAL ...
AT: FACC - Negative EBIT and bottom line loss in Q3 22, FY outlook confirmed (negative) AT: S IMMO - Acquiring properties in Budapest from CPI Property Group (neutral) AT: Vienna Insurance Group - Application for listing on the Budapest Stock Exchange submitted (neutral) AT: voestalpine - Q2 results live up to pre-announced indication, NWC remains cash flow burden (neutral) CEE: Banks - KBC reports lower Q3 net profit qoq in CZ, but higher in BG and HU (neutral) CZ: CTP - Q3 trends i...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: record-high clean CCS EBIT, above both our and consensus numbers POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q22 results and special dividend proposal • Garanti Bank: 3Q22 highlights - decent quarter, on its own • Kruk: PLN 188m of net profit in 3Q22 - profit warning • Europe macro: ECB's stance to stay hawkish for a long time, but attention is shifting to liquidity • Erdemir: key takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - positive 3Q GDP does not change the traje...
AT: Addiko Bank - Miodrag Kostic topping up the stake to >5% (neutral) AT: AGRANA - Hefty impairment but clean operating guidance above market expectations (positive) PL: PKO BP - Likely increase of O-SII buffer from 1% to 2% (negative) PL: Santander Bank Polska - O-SII buffer increase by 25 bps (neutral) PL: Staples - Biedronka bonuses show labour costs pressure in Polish retail (neutral)
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Transgaz: higher-than-expected net loss in 2Q22 NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: 2Q22 EBITDA 10% above our expectations and a beat of solid quality POSITIVE • Bank of Georgia: 2Q22 - upbeat quarter, but quality a little low, due to inflated trading gains • Addiko Bank: 2Q22 review - solid results, with bottom line 31% higher than our estimate POSITIVE • Halyk Savings Bank: 2Q22 - better than expected, but beat related to trading gains • SOK Marketler Ticaret: 2Q22 results - as expect...
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