reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Thoughts on upcoming spectrum auction
We give our thoughts on pricing and total spend ahead of the upcoming THB 121bn (USD 3.6bn) spectrum auction in Thailand (likely in May 2025). Reserve prices seem reasonable, but the early auction of expiring 2027 spectrum means total spend this year is likely to be above our original forecasts.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 24 review: Likely to beat full year guidance as market...
Despite Q3 being a seasonally weaker period, the industry delivered a better service revenue and EBITDA performance. Mobile improved on better prepaid numbers from AIS. Given how strong YTD numbers have been, it is very likely both will beat guidance. We stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong momentum with continued margin uplif...
Thai operators delivered good margins uplift again, and TRUE upgraded guidance. After turning the corner in Q4, Thai mobile growth sustained in the 4% range on prepaid strength. With the outlook now positive , we stay bullish on the two with TRUE staying on as one of our top pick in EM Telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Singtel/AIS Merger of Intouch and Gulf Energy; VTO of AIS. Implicatio...
The merger between Intouch Holdings (where Singtel owns a 24.99% stake) and Gulf Energy was announced today. Following this, a waiver had been obtained to trigger a Voluntary Tender Offer (VTO) instead of a Mandatory Offer for 36.25% of AIS shares. We outline the implications for Singtel and AIS below.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q4 23 review: Turning the corner as ARPU grew after more ...
Thai operators witnessed a notable uptick in growth as industry mobile ARPU reverted to growth after more than three years. EBITDA also bounced higher led by TRUE, setting the stage for 9-11% growth in FY24. Guided capex also suggests moderating capex intensity which is key driver of ROIC upside. The outlook is turning more optimistic than before, validated by our recent visit of the two telcos.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Takeaways from Meetings with the Thai Telcos in Bangkok
Our meetings with the two Thai operators (& NBTC) validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, and sharp capex reductions. Both operators remain focused on profitable growth. TRUE seems very confident on synergy delivery.
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q3 23 review: Market continues to repair
Market repair drove faster revenue growth and rising margins for both AIS and TRUE. For mobile, AIS is finally back to positive ARPU YoY growth after fourteen quarters of YoY declines. This suggests to us that the outlook turning more optimistic than before.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
AIS (Buy, TP: THB285, +28%) AIS (Buy) – Thai regulator greenlights th...
Last Friday, the NBTC has approved the acquisition of Triple T Broadband (3BB) by AIS. This moves the Thai operator up to the top spot in the fixed broadband market with c.36% on our estimates. The remedies were fairly reasonable in our view.
- Chris Hoare
Feedback from Meetings with AIS and True in Thailand
Our meetings with the two Thai operators validate our view of a benign mobile dynamic, supported by improving tourism, easing inflation and lower energy costs. Importantly, both operators are focused on profitable growth whilst capex is also shifting in the right direction.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q2 23 review: Moving in the right direction; further boos...
Thai telcos reported a decent quarter, with the outlook turning more optimistic than before. Topline, mobile ARPU growth, alongside margins and capex are all moving in the right direction. Additional tailwind would come in the form of the THB10k(USD280) payout per adult which was introduced by the new government, while aiming to lower energy costs and further promote tourism in the country
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Thai Telcos Tale of the tape
The picture for Thai telcos is turning positive with clear signs of mobile recovery, driven by softer competition and inflation. Recent political uncertainty has led to slower growth in recent months we think, but growth in both Broadband and Enterprise is structural and should rebound as the political fog clears. In an improving market, AIS remains our top pick.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q1 23: Slowdown in India, elsewhere strong
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q1 driven by price increases in India lapping. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 9%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q4 22: Double digit growth persists
EM Telcos continue to grow ahead of expectations as a group, and remain resilient to inflationary cost pressures on consumers, with growth in Q4 remaining strong for the leading telcos we track. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2023; Duopoly in Thailand & Malaysia
2022 was mixed in the ASEAN Telecom space. In 2023, we are likely to see improving trends in all 3 countries covered in this note driven by Covid bounce back with China re-opening borders as well as the benefit of consolidation in both Thailand and Malaysia.
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