The resumption of pricing power is one of the key drivers of the rally in EM Telcos and perhaps the area where consensus is most sceptical. In this note we analyse which markets have the greatest potential for sustained pricing power, looking at key issues: affordability and regulatory and competitive structure.
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
After a banner 2024 (+33% on average), 2025 saw further absolute upside for the Chinese telcos, albeit underperforming a strong local index (HSI +32%). Valuations have increased relative to the past, but the stocks remain cheap in our view, and should grind higher, as modest top line growth and falling capex lead to decent cash flow and shareholder remuneration growth.
Mobile rebounded sharply after 4 quarters of declines, as the price up initiatives in 1H25 have started to flow through. To some extent though this is already reflected in consensus which expects momentum to continue into Q4, which are broadly in-line with the recalibrated guidance. YTD, XLSmart’s stock has been the outperformer and rightfully so given the anticipated synergies.
Bharti has always performed well in anticipation of price increases, which we think are likely in H1 next year. The company also looks set to be seeing accelerating growth in both Home, and Enterprise, while Airtel Africa continues to knock it out of the park, and capex is constrained. What’s not to like? PT to 2,750.
Chinese telcos faced slower service revenue growth on mobile headwind. Despite the muted topline, cost control remained decent as China Telecom continues to grow EBITDA while Unicom starts to stabilise after three consecutive YoY declines. Earnings grew low to mid single digits for all three, suggesting 6-7% dividend yields in 2026
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.