reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos – Q2 25 review: Sector discipline still in-tact
Thai telcos posted LSD service revenue growth, while EBITDA slowed to MSD. TRUE underperformed due to May’s power outage but still guided for 2H recovery on spectrum rental savings despite the guidance downgrade. While risks from soft tourism may persist, sector discipline and its value-based pricing approach remains intact.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 25 review: Improving margin, lower capex
Service revenue growth stayed modest with China Telecom improving while peers slowed. EBITDA margins are expanding which drove mid-single digit earnings growth. YTD capex is down 16% YoY ahead of the 9% fall guided for full year. China Telecom will be added to the Hang Seng Index from next week. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Auction concludes, no major surprises
Thailand concluded its spectrum auction on Sunday and raised THB 41.3bn (US$ 1.26bn). Overall process was benign and results were as expected – AIS retained its 2100MHz share whilst TRUE won the 2300MHz and 1500MHz band; only the 850MHz was left unsold. Our brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Thai Telcos Q1 25 review: Steady Q1, incoming auction risk likely mod...
Thai telcos had a good run in 2024 and the momentum carried into Q1 2025 with steady service revenue and margin growth. However, weaker inbound tourism figures and the tariff overhang have raised concerns, contributing to the downward revision in GDP forecasts (1.8% to 1.1% in 2025).
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q1 25 review: Better profitability despite slower topl...
Service revenue trends slowed in Q1 amid macro headwinds, but EBITDA returned to growth. This continued to drive earnings and therefore dividend growth. With capex continuing to fall in absolute terms, the Chinese telcos continue to look cheap. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 300p, +90%) Q4 25: Solid finish; underlying t...
Airtel Africa has reported a solid set of Q4 results with a continued improvement in underlying trends and lower than expected capex. However, shares are down 8% today. We think this is driven by the delay in the IPO of the Mobile Money business to H1 2026 and the lack of commentary around the second tranche of the share buyback as well as some profit taking. Operationally trends are strong and so we remain Buyers with a price target of 300p.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Telkom Indonesia (Buy, IDR 4,500, +76%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Buybac...
Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 24 review: Still growing; continued fall in absolut...
Chinese Telcos saw service revenue return to mid-single digits growth in 4Q24. Despite a blip in EBITDA trend, the industry ended 2024 with 6% earnings growth which translated to higher dividend payouts (CM: 73%, CT: 72%, CU: 60%).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +13%) Q4 24: Solid quarter, FY24 dividend up
MTN has reported a solid set of Q4 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue growth growing a touch above the MT guidance this quarter. The company announced a dividend of 345cts for FY24 (previous guide was for 330cts) and the Board anticipates paying a minimum ordinary DPS of 370cts after the FY25 results.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
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