reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos & Tower Outlook 2026: Grind higher expected, Unicom t...
After a banner 2024 (+33% on average), 2025 saw further absolute upside for the Chinese telcos, albeit underperforming a strong local index (HSI +32%). Valuations have increased relative to the past, but the stocks remain cheap in our view, and should grind higher, as modest top line growth and falling capex lead to decent cash flow and shareholder remuneration growth.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, INR 2,750 from INR 2,180, +32%) All cylinders fir...
Bharti has always performed well in anticipation of price increases, which we think are likely in H1 next year. The company also looks set to be seeing accelerating growth in both Home, and Enterprise, while Airtel Africa continues to knock it out of the park, and capex is constrained. What’s not to like? PT to 2,750.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 25 review: Earnings resilient despite muted topline
Chinese telcos faced slower service revenue growth on mobile headwind. Despite the muted topline, cost control remained decent as China Telecom continues to grow EBITDA while Unicom starts to stabilise after three consecutive YoY declines. Earnings grew low to mid single digits for all three, suggesting 6-7% dividend yields in 2026
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos Solid H1 but expect prepaid weakness; CY25 H1 re...
Despite a small slowdown in MSR trends, the SA market saw further improvements in total revenue growth, EBITDA and OpFCF margins in H1. Telkom continued to gain revenue share in mobile, driven by prepaid while Vodacom continued to gain share in fixed. Trends on the SA market have been improving since two years ago, helped by the reduction in loadshedding and an improvement in the macro environment.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another good performance; Q2 25 review
The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well again in Q2 with service revenue trends accelerating further, and stable OpFCF margins. MTN was the outperformer in terms of both local currency and $ top line performance in Q2, Airtel performed well too. Nigeria has contributed meaningfully this quarter, with local currency growth there accelerating to above 60%. The full effect of the price increase in Nigeria has helped and we expect another strong performance
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...
Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 25 review: Improving margin, lower capex
Service revenue growth stayed modest with China Telecom improving while peers slowed. EBITDA margins are expanding which drove mid-single digit earnings growth. YTD capex is down 16% YoY ahead of the 9% fall guided for full year. China Telecom will be added to the Hang Seng Index from next week. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
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