reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 25 review: Muted topline but capex reduction positi...
Chinese telcos continued to face slower service revenue growth on mobile headwind and one off expenses that resulted in earnings declines in 4Q. Total capex for the three were guided to be 9% lower YoY in 2026, which should drive FCFE yield. Despite the weak Q4, full year earnings grew low to mid single digits for all three in 2025, while there is still upside to 60-70% payout ratios.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q3 FY26 review: AGR relief for Vodafone Idea, Jio’s IPO...
India’s mobile revenue growth moderated as expected, as July 2024’s tariff increase has now been lapped. Jio’s IPO seems to be gathering steam, with Reliance rumoured to have appointed bankers after the government approved a change to allow listings with only 2.5% free float. Either before, or shortly after, we foresee another price increase.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR280, +52%) MTN Rwanda – Q4 25: Decent quarter; Focus...
MTN Rwanda has reported a decent set of Q4 results. Top line trends remained robust, but EBITDA trends slowed. The company has maintained its medium-term guidance for service revenue growth and EBITDA margins but has cut its capex guide and although net income is back into positive territory this year, the BoD has recommended no dividends for 2025.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR280, +33%) MTN Nigeria – Q4 25: Strong quarter and s...
MTN Nigeria has reported another strong set of results. The company has maintained its MT guidance for service revenue growth (“at least the low 20%”) and upgraded its MT guidance for EBITDA margins, from “53-55%” to “mid to high 50%”
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos & Tower Outlook 2026: Grind higher expected, Unicom t...
After a banner 2024 (+33% on average), 2025 saw further absolute upside for the Chinese telcos, albeit underperforming a strong local index (HSI +32%). Valuations have increased relative to the past, but the stocks remain cheap in our view, and should grind higher, as modest top line growth and falling capex lead to decent cash flow and shareholder remuneration growth.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, INR 2,750 from INR 2,180, +32%) All cylinders fir...
Bharti has always performed well in anticipation of price increases, which we think are likely in H1 next year. The company also looks set to be seeing accelerating growth in both Home, and Enterprise, while Airtel Africa continues to knock it out of the park, and capex is constrained. What’s not to like? PT to 2,750.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 25 review: Earnings resilient despite muted topline
Chinese telcos faced slower service revenue growth on mobile headwind. Despite the muted topline, cost control remained decent as China Telecom continues to grow EBITDA while Unicom starts to stabilise after three consecutive YoY declines. Earnings grew low to mid single digits for all three, suggesting 6-7% dividend yields in 2026
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