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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile Q2 FY25 review: Renewed acceleration off tariff hike, F...

Indian mobile revenue growth accelerated to mid-teens on the back of the tariff hike in July, with EBITDA margin expansion across all three operators.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +57%) Q3 24: Solid, SR growth back on track wit...

MTN has reported a solid set of Q3 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue trending back in line with the MT guidance.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

NU US (Neutral, TP: $13, -15%) Q3 24: NuCel the Telco disrupter, diver...

NU reported numbers which missed a touch at NIM on a combination of lower yields and higher funding cost. The latter continues to be driven by deposit ramp and still relatively low lending in Mexico.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

VIVT3 (Buy, TP: R$61, +15%) TIMS3 (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) AMX (Buy, TP: ...

Rounding off the reporting season, Vivo reported solid Q3s results with a 3% beat at EBITDA and the best postpaid net adds in Brazil this quarter.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +52%) MTN Rwanda – Q3 24 Quick take: Mixed quar...

MTN Rwanda has reported a mixed set of Q3 numbers. Service revenue trends inflected and are back into positive territory while EBITDA trends eased but remained under pressure.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) - Q3 24: In-line trends, Nubank and p...

TIM has delivered solid Q3s, with a small beat at EBITDAaL combined with lower capex intensity to support very strong OpFCF after leases (+23% y/y) this quarter. Growth trends are naturally easing through the year, which is captured within reiterated FY guidance, though is perhaps spooking the market.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN Uganda (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) – Q3 24 Quick Take: Slower but soli...

MTN Uganda has reported a slower but solid set of Q3 numbers and has upgraded medium-term guidance for service revenue growth.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +50%) MTN Ghana – Q3 24 Quick Take: Faster quart...

MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q3 results with both service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and solid data subscriber net additions.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +48%) MTN Nigeria Q3 24 Quick Take: A much bette...

MTN Nigeria has reported a much better set of results. Top line growth accelerated again, and EBITDA growth is back into positive territory, helped by the tower lease renegotiations.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

NU US (Neutral, TP: $13, -15%) TIM (BUY, TP: R$23, +44%) Vivo (BUY, TP...

Nubank’s MVNO, NuCel, launched in Brazil yesterday. We run through pricing and compare with peers, seeing the product as competitive but not particularly aggressive.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

5G FWA in EM Hold on for a massive acceleration in FWA demand, Bharti...

When Jio announced it was targeting 100m 5G FWA customers we said this was likely to be game changing for the industry globally, and so it is proving.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile Broadband upgraded as FWA takes off; Bharti price targe...

Jio’s recent FWA figures suggest India is entering an S-curve of adoption. We think this means Jio is set to capture the lion’s share of a $20bn revenue industry (by 2030). Bharti is likely to benefit strongly too.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: £2, +82%) Q2 25: Solid operationally, near-te...

Airtel Africa has reported a better set of Q2 results with both Group revenue and EBITDA trends inflecting this quarter.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EM Telcos Q2 24: Enterprise softer but remains a secular trend

Following our work on the structural growth of EM Enterprise revenues, we highlight Q2 enterprise numbers to see how the story is trending.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...

Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos – Final AGR ruling and Vodafone IDEA Equipment deal – Ou...

Yesterday, Vodafone Idea announced a INR 300bn (US$3.6bn) network equipment deal with Nokia, Ericsson and Samsung over the next three years to expand its 4G coverage and introduce 5G in key cities.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

African Telcos - Catch Back: Headwinds easing, many markets to 2 playe...

We see signs that the macro pressure of the last 2 years is leading to easing competition, as has happened in the past.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

South African Telcos - Upgrade as the long cycle turns. Vodacom to Buy...

As the long cycle of competition turns, we upgrade price targets for both MTN and Vodacom.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) Q2 24: Better topline trends including im...

Service revenue trends were faster off better Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa as network availability improved. While underlying service revenue improved from Q1, it was still below the mid-teen medium term guidance. However, the Group maintained its guidance, with full year’s capex (Rs28-33bn) expected to be down around 30% from last year off lower spend in Nigeria. HoldCo leverage had also improved to 1.6x this quarter with better upstreaming.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...

Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.

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