TIM has delivered solid Q3s, with a small beat at EBITDAaL combined with lower capex intensity to support very strong OpFCF after leases (+23% y/y) this quarter. Growth trends are naturally easing through the year, which is captured within reiterated FY guidance, though is perhaps spooking the market.
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
Service revenue trends were faster off better Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa as network availability improved. While underlying service revenue improved from Q1, it was still below the mid-teen medium term guidance. However, the Group maintained its guidance, with full year’s capex (Rs28-33bn) expected to be down around 30% from last year off lower spend in Nigeria. HoldCo leverage had also improved to 1.6x this quarter with better upstreaming.
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
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