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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers – On Fire - NSR GEM Top-10 April 25 Update. ...

Our picks were on fire in March, with our top EM Telcos now up 27% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts catalysts, help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +13%) Q4 24: Solid quarter, FY24 dividend up

MTN has reported a solid set of Q4 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue growth growing a touch above the MT guidance this quarter. The company announced a dividend of 345cts for FY24 (previous guide was for 330cts) and the Board anticipates paying a minimum ordinary DPS of 370cts after the FY25 results.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +16%) MTN Rwanda – Q4 24 Quick take: Still mixe...

MTN Rwanda has reported a mixed set of Q4 numbers. Service revenue trends continued to inflect, and the company achieved its FY24 guidance for service revenue growth, but EBITDA trends slightly deteriorated.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +11%) MTN Uganda – Q4 24 Quick Take: Slower but...

MTN Uganda has reported a slower but solid set of Q4 numbers and has reiterated medium-term guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +10%) Q4 24: Very strong top line; good support ...

MTN Ghana has reported a strong set of Q4 results. Both service revenue and EBITDA trends came in ahead of our expectations and service revenue growth accelerated again despite the macro pressures.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...

February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +10%) MTN Nigeria – Q4 24 Quick Take: Solid und...

MTN Nigeria has reported a good set of Q4 results. Headline revenue and EBITDA were very strong, helped by a one off in revenue. Underlying trends remained solid and came in above our expectations.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: £2, +45%) Bharti Airtel to buy 5% of Airtel A...

Bharti Airtel has announced it intends to acquire 5% of Airtel Africa (which it already owns 57% of) and intends to complete this by March 31st2025. Airtel Africa are also currently in the process of executing a $100m share buyback in 2 tranches with the first $50m to be completed by April 24th 2025. AAF’s last RNS suggested the company has so far bought back $22m of this, leaving $38m still to be executed in the first tranche

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa Q3 25: Strong beat with headline revenue resuming growth...

Airtel Africa shares jumped by 10% today after delivering a strong beat, with reported topline and EBITDA ahead of expectations by 5%. Reported revenue growth inflected to positive territory as East Africa improved whilst both local currency revenue and EBITDA accelerated. Separately, the group has reiterated its full year guidance for continued margin improvement and capex spending between $725m and $750m. AAF is one of our NSR GEM top picks for 2025, and we are Buyers with a GBp 200 price targ...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos 50% price increase to be approved

The NCC has announced it will grant approval for a maximum 50% price increase. This is a very positive development for the Nigerian Telcos in our view

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Nigerian Telcos – Price increase is finally coming, i...

A price increase is coming soon according to the Nigerian press. The magnitude is not yet known but this is positive news (potentially very positive) for the Nigerian Telcos, Airtel Africa and MTN.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBp200, +85%) Second share buyback program

Airtel Africa has announced a second share buyback program of up to $100m, with the first $50m tranche starting today until the 24th of April 2025. This is positive news and as we wrote HERE reflects the strength of execution of AAF

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBp200, +88%) Strength of execution

Airtel Africa is the outperformer among African portfolio telcos. Investors may be surprised at the extent of this outperformance which we highlight in this note.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Underlying top line stronger than ever, EBITDA inflec...

Nigerian Telcos continued to perform very well from a top line perspective despite the absence of price increases and the macro pressures. This suggests as we wrote HERE, that devaluations tend to spur ARPU increases in local currency, and a “catch back” of lost hard $ revenue.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +62%) Feedback from small group call

We hosted a small group Zoom call with MTN Group CEO, Ralph Mupita, MTN Group CFO, Tsholofelo Molefe and Head of IR, Thato Motlanthe last week. Tone was overall positive, with a particularly bullish conversation around consolidation across Africa.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +57%) Q3 24: Solid, SR growth back on track wit...

MTN has reported a solid set of Q3 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue trending back in line with the MT guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +52%) MTN Rwanda – Q3 24 Quick take: Mixed quar...

MTN Rwanda has reported a mixed set of Q3 numbers. Service revenue trends inflected and are back into positive territory while EBITDA trends eased but remained under pressure.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN Uganda (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) – Q3 24 Quick Take: Slower but soli...

MTN Uganda has reported a slower but solid set of Q3 numbers and has upgraded medium-term guidance for service revenue growth.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +50%) MTN Ghana – Q3 24 Quick Take: Faster quart...

MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q3 results with both service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and solid data subscriber net additions.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +48%) MTN Nigeria Q3 24 Quick Take: A much bette...

MTN Nigeria has reported a much better set of results. Top line growth accelerated again, and EBITDA growth is back into positive territory, helped by the tower lease renegotiations.

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