reports
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 300p, +90%) Q4 25: Solid finish; underlying t...
Airtel Africa has reported a solid set of Q4 results with a continued improvement in underlying trends and lower than expected capex. However, shares are down 8% today. We think this is driven by the delay in the IPO of the Mobile Money business to H1 2026 and the lack of commentary around the second tranche of the share buyback as well as some profit taking. Operationally trends are strong and so we remain Buyers with a price target of 300p.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +60%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 25: Still mixed but MT gu...
MTN Rwanda has reported a somewhat mixed set of Q1 numbers. On the one hand, service revenue trends slowed, impacted by strong competition. On the other hand, EBITDA growth is back into positive territory and low capex spend this quarter translated into solid OpFCF
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +54%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 25 Quick Take, and read ...
MTN Nigeria has reported a strong set of Q1 results across all metrics. Price increases were only implemented from March which suggests further sharp improvements going forward. The company maintained FY25 guidance, but in our view is tracking ahead.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190;...
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +13%) Q4 24: Solid quarter, FY24 dividend up
MTN has reported a solid set of Q4 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue growth growing a touch above the MT guidance this quarter. The company announced a dividend of 345cts for FY24 (previous guide was for 330cts) and the Board anticipates paying a minimum ordinary DPS of 370cts after the FY25 results.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: £2, +45%) Bharti Airtel to buy 5% of Airtel A...
Bharti Airtel has announced it intends to acquire 5% of Airtel Africa (which it already owns 57% of) and intends to complete this by March 31st2025. Airtel Africa are also currently in the process of executing a $100m share buyback in 2 tranches with the first $50m to be completed by April 24th 2025. AAF’s last RNS suggested the company has so far bought back $22m of this, leaving $38m still to be executed in the first tranche
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa Q3 25: Strong beat with headline revenue resuming growth...
Airtel Africa shares jumped by 10% today after delivering a strong beat, with reported topline and EBITDA ahead of expectations by 5%. Reported revenue growth inflected to positive territory as East Africa improved whilst both local currency revenue and EBITDA accelerated. Separately, the group has reiterated its full year guidance for continued margin improvement and capex spending between $725m and $750m. AAF is one of our NSR GEM top picks for 2025, and we are Buyers with a GBp 200 price targ...
- Chris Hoare
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