MTN Rwanda has reported a decent set of Q4 results. Top line trends remained robust, but EBITDA trends slowed. The company has maintained its medium-term guidance for service revenue growth and EBITDA margins but has cut its capex guide and although net income is back into positive territory this year, the BoD has recommended no dividends for 2025.
2025 was such a strong year for EM Telcos with the result that while remaining bullish we thought it was not plausible that 2026 would be as strong. Yet if anything the year has started better than 2025, with our picks up 18% ytd already, and up 113% since the start of 2025.
MTN Nigeria has reported another strong set of results. The company has maintained its MT guidance for service revenue growth (“at least the low 20%”) and upgraded its MT guidance for EBITDA margins, from “53-55%” to “mid to high 50%”
The resumption of pricing power is one of the key drivers of the rally in EM Telcos and perhaps the area where consensus is most sceptical. In this note we analyse which markets have the greatest potential for sustained pricing power, looking at key issues: affordability and regulatory and competitive structure.
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.
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