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- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190;...
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: £2, +45%) Bharti Airtel to buy 5% of Airtel A...
Bharti Airtel has announced it intends to acquire 5% of Airtel Africa (which it already owns 57% of) and intends to complete this by March 31st2025. Airtel Africa are also currently in the process of executing a $100m share buyback in 2 tranches with the first $50m to be completed by April 24th 2025. AAF’s last RNS suggested the company has so far bought back $22m of this, leaving $38m still to be executed in the first tranche
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa Q3 25: Strong beat with headline revenue resuming growth...
Airtel Africa shares jumped by 10% today after delivering a strong beat, with reported topline and EBITDA ahead of expectations by 5%. Reported revenue growth inflected to positive territory as East Africa improved whilst both local currency revenue and EBITDA accelerated. Separately, the group has reiterated its full year guidance for continued margin improvement and capex spending between $725m and $750m. AAF is one of our NSR GEM top picks for 2025, and we are Buyers with a GBp 200 price targ...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Underlying top line stronger than ever, EBITDA inflec...
Nigerian Telcos continued to perform very well from a top line perspective despite the absence of price increases and the macro pressures. This suggests as we wrote HERE, that devaluations tend to spur ARPU increases in local currency, and a “catch back” of lost hard $ revenue.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid top line, decent overall performan...
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q1 24 review: Strong underlying top line, weak profit...
Nigerian Telcos continue to perform well from a top line perspective. Market service revenue growth accelerated (again) in Q1 with both MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa growing underlying service revenue by ~33% YoY. As expected, EBITDA and profit metrics were weaker (especially for MTN) because of the Naira devaluation in Q1
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel, Airtel Africa & Singtel At $100bn, downgrade Bharti Ai...
Bharti crossing $100bn market cap makes us address the question of which parts of the Bharti/Singtel/Airtel Africa capital structure are most attractive. Bharti has the momentum, but the valuation gap is now extreme. Reversion to the mean will likely happen at some point which means sensible investors in Bharti should now be switching into Singtel (for yield) or Airtel Africa (for growth).
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