reports
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos EM Enterprise Revenues Continue to Grow Strongly
In this note we revisit and update our thesis that Enterprise in EM is following an S-Curve, using 2023 reported figures. Enterprise customer growth continues to exhibit an S-Curve, and absolute Enterprise revenues added remains very strong in many EMs despite a slowdown in growth rates. We remain bullish on this space.
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line b...
Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong to...
MTN Nigeria has reported a mixed set of results. Top line was quite strong, but EBITDA and the bottom line came in under pressure (as expected), driven mainly by the Naira devaluation in Q1. The company is cutting capex for this year.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
MTNN Plc 2023FY Earnings Note - Foreign Exchange Losses Bite Deep
Strong Revenue Growth Offset by Higher Costs In its recently released 2023 full year (FY) financial result, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) observed higher revenue figures on a Year- on-Year (YoY) basis, recording a 22.69% YoY growth to NGN2.47trn in 2023FY. Topline growth was underpinned by a robust growth in Data Revenue (+39.90% YoY to NGN1.07trn), followed by an increase in Other Revenue (+16.01% YoY to NGN445.14bn) which consists of ancillary income streams such as rental income, dig...
- Chris Hoare
African Towers and Telcos IHS offers improved terms to MTN Nigeria re...
Press reports that IHS has offered improved commercial terms to MTN Nigeria regarding the 2,500 towers previously lost to ATC. This suggests that as we previously wrote there must have been a material difference in commercial terms, with the corporate governance issue secondary. Increasing evidence of competition in contract renewals is negative for Towers and positive Telcos in EM.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 ...
Market service revenue growth slightly slowed but remained robust in Q3. Both MTN and AAF managed to grow underlying service revenue just above 20% YoY, which is a solid performance given the current macro-economic pressures and the absence of price increases.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Good performance in a challenging macro ...
Q2 was a good quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators which continue to benefit from strong fundamentals. Trends accelerated across the board in Nigeria as well as in the other geographies, margins were decent and the capex intensity slowed this quarter.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Nigerian Telcos Faster quarter, strong underlying trends but larger F...
Underlying performance remained strong for both MTN and AAF which saw an improvement in top line and EBITDA trends. However, macro challenges remain and the devaluation of Naira will have a greater impact on headline numbers next quarter.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR250, +80%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 23: Good Q2 numbers; H2 ...
MTN Nigeria has reported a good set of Q2 numbers with Service Revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and relatively good subscriber net adds. MT guidance has been reiterated. H2 23 is expected to be tougher for EBITDA and capex because of the Naira devaluation.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q1 23: Slowdown in India, elsewhere strong
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q1 driven by price increases in India lapping. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 9%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Our thoughts on the recent macro developments in Nige...
Amongst the reforms announced by Nigeria’s president Bola Tinubu in its inaugural speech at the end of May, two could be key for the Nigerian Telcos in our view. The first one is the removal of the fuel subsidy, the second one is the change in the FX policy. The USD:NGN has been volatile in the last few days, as the currency controls that were in place to prop up the Naira against the USD are being removed.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.