reports
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q2 25 review: KT and LG U-Plus benefiting from SK...
SKT underperformed in Q2 due to April’s cyberattack. As SKT’s Customer Appreciation Package is expected to cost KRW500bn (US$360m) coupled with the associated churn, SKT is expected to take a heavier hit in the second half. The government’s AI campaign should be supportive for telcos’ Enterprise operations, and we expect to see stronger Enterprise revenues in H2 too. KT remains one of our Top Picks in GEM Telcos for its exposure to Enterprise and focus on cost and capex discipline.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
SoftBank and the U.S. government shoring up Intel?
Intel and SoftBank announced yesterday evening that SoftBank will acquire $2bn of newly issued Intel shares. At the same time reports of the U.S. government taking a direct stake in Intel are becoming more tangible. Please see the link below for our take.
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos – Q1 FY25 review: Steady start, all eyes on Mobile pri...
Revenue trends were steady as the softer mobile growth was offset by improvement in non-mobile. Softbank remained the outperformer, but this has already been baked in as expectations for Group revenue are sitting ahead of guidance by 3%.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
KT Corp (Buy, KRW 105,000, +94%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Service revenue in...
Profitability rose sharply on lower labour costs and was partly boosted by a real estate gain, well-flagged previously. Despite ongoing restructuring to shed lower-margin businesses, service revenue trend inflected, driven by B2B and Fixed Line. As expected, operational metrics accelerated in Q2 due to the situation at SKT.
- Chris Hoare
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Softbank Corp (Buy, TP: ¥270, +19%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Another decen...
Softbank Corp reported a relatively in-line topline and EBITDA whilst headline EBIT was 4% ahead of expectations. Trends in mobile service revenue slowed with continued momentum in net additions (in particular Y!Mobile) offsetting the marginal decline in mobile ARPU.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €15.8, +19%) MasOrange (Equal Weight) It’s not all a...
We have been long-term Buyers of Orange, and are pleased about the YTD share price performance (+37% vs the sector +10%). Some of that outperformance is probably due to the prospect of French market repair (France is 56% of the value), but actually it is the Spanish and AME divisions that cause our target to rise to €15.8 from €14.9 post the Q2 results.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another monster month: NSR GEM Top-10 Augus...
Our top picks performed very strongly again in July, marked by a strong recovery from VEON, Millicom and IHS Towers alongside continued momentum at Singtel and Airtel Africa. Heading into earnings season, we continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14.9, +14%) Q2 25: EBITDA guidance lifted thanks to...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+0.3% ahead of consensus, and has lifted Group EBITDAaL guidance thanks to AME. French KPIs are solid, but French retail SR growth has turned negative y/y. There are some encouraging signs on French front-book low-end mobile pricing in July (HERE), but clearly overall conditions remain difficult (albeit Orange is doing a good job of off-setting those difficulties at the EBITDAaL level in France).
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Altice International (Equal Weight) Sale process Hot-ting up in Israe...
Bezeq has confirmed that its subsidiary, Pelephone, has made an offer for Altice International’s Israeli business, Hot Mobile, HERE, for NIS2bn (c€500m). In addition, it seems that Cellcom and Hot have sold their stakes in IBC, HERE. Cellcom has sold its 23% stake for NIS520m (c€130m), and we would assume that Altice has sold its 23% stake for the same amount. In this report we look at the implications of the sales for ATCI lenders.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Iliad (Equal Weight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €55...
There have been several recent articles about French M&A. The latest article from TMT finance yesterday has some fairly specific details, and most importantly, seems to suggest that the price demanded for SFR is now approaching what we would see as fair value.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another decent month: NSR GEM Top-10 July ‘...
Our picks largely had a slightly slower month in June, with VEON seeing sharp profit taking, but a recovery in some of the weaker stocks such as LILAK offset to continue to see overall valuations rise. We continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain heavily undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q1 25 review: Peers expected to benefit near-term...
Margins are improving as operators execute on cost discipline and shift away from less profitable operations. As capex intensity falls, cash flow is rising and so therefore are dividends or buybacks; LG is expected to announce a buyback in 2H. Thus we are confident of further re-rating and our recent trip reinforced this view. Following the data breach at SKT, near term results are likely to favour KT and LG Uplus. KT remains our preferred pick and is one of our top picks in GEM Telcos.
- Russell Waller
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets
With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?
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