reports
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
The price war at the low end of the French mobile market, which began at the beginning of summer 2024, and which we have written about extensively (HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE), appears to be coming to an end, thanks to some tariff changes that should lead to higher APRUs. We show some new work on tariffs in France in this short report, that should be good for all the MNOs.
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
New Altice France debt and equity is now trading. Given the material change in bond terms, and the creation of a new separately traded equity piece, we reassess our rating, and think that at these levels the bonds look pretty fairly valued, and so take the bond rating to Equal weight from Overweight (the old bonds ended up +20% from the lows), and initiate on the equity with a Neutral, as we think that the equity is already implying a high probability of a deal happening, and see minimal underli...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €52, +39%) Iliad (Equal ...
There have been a few recent reports that the sale process for XpFibre has heated up. It has been suggested that a sale might eventually be pulled and the stake used as a sweetener in any eventual deal; but actually, a sale could also be the first domino in the whole M&A process, as an XpFibre sale would help to ease leverage concerns that Bouygues might have from acquiring SFR. We still think a SFR-Bouygues deal is more likely than not by year end, and that Bouygues is the best way to play this...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Overweight) Is Q2 the bottom for ARPU declines?
SFR reported another weak set of results last week (HERE) with B2C SR numbers for Q2 slipping to -9.1% y/y from -6.7% y/y in Q1. The results did show that SFR has basically managed to stabilise its KPI base for the second quarter running, but this appears to have come at a further cost to ARPU.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Overweight) Q2 25: OpFCF guidance retained despi...
Altice France has reported Q2 25 results with once again weaker SR trends; underlying EBITDA is slightly better, but still weak at -9.9% y/y ex construction from -11.6% y/y in Q1 25. Guidance for OpFCF to be higher in FY25 then FY24 has been reiterated.
- Russell Waller
Altice International (Equal Weight) Sale process Hot-ting up in Israe...
Bezeq has confirmed that its subsidiary, Pelephone, has made an offer for Altice International’s Israeli business, Hot Mobile, HERE, for NIS2bn (c€500m). In addition, it seems that Cellcom and Hot have sold their stakes in IBC, HERE. Cellcom has sold its 23% stake for NIS520m (c€130m), and we would assume that Altice has sold its 23% stake for the same amount. In this report we look at the implications of the sales for ATCI lenders.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Iliad (Equal Weight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €55...
There have been several recent articles about French M&A. The latest article from TMT finance yesterday has some fairly specific details, and most importantly, seems to suggest that the price demanded for SFR is now approaching what we would see as fair value.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Key questions from the Q1 25 results and m...
Last week SFR reported weak numbers at the SR and EBITDA level (HERE). We are surprised the bonds have not been sold off more. Possibly that is because new OpFCF guidance is for OpFCF to be up y/y despite the EBITDA declines, and/or investors think fundamentals are not important when there is a high chance of M&A. We are overweight the bonds based on the likelihood that M&A happens this year – HERE – but absent M&A, it is hard to find much to cheer about in the results: KPIs are solid, but stabi...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) Q1 25: Positive new OpFCF guidance despite weak SR...
Altice France has reported Q1 25 results which are quite weak at both the SR and EBITDA level. There is new guidance on OpFCF, which is for it be up y/y (i.e. for capex declines to offset EBITDA declines (which slipped to –11.6% y/y ex construction from –11.2% y/y in Q4 24)), which is a positive, but we can’t help but feel that the OpFCF guidance has been given in order to distract from the weak underlying numbers. We are overweight the bonds based on the likelihood that M&A happens this year bu...
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Most preferred) xpFibre ReCap and potential stake sale...
TMT has published an interview with Andras Kranicz, Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure Finance Europe, BNP Paribas, in which a €5.8bn refinancing package is mentioned for xpFibre. The article goes on to talk about a potential xpFibre stake sale by Drahi. We run through the implications of this news in this short piece
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France Does Teads hold the key to delevering?
A break-up of Altice International, is, we are told, option A for delevering at Altice France. According to press reports however, there is a gap between the offers made for Altice Portugal and the amount that Patrick Drahi wants (€7bn of proceeds wanted vs €5bn-€6bn offered); because Altice International debt will have to be repaid in the event of a sale of Portugal, €5bn of proceeds might not be enough to persuade Drahi to sell, as the amount of cash that could be up-streamed might be too smal...
- Russell Waller
Altice France Does Teads hold the key to delevering?
A break-up of Altice International, is, we are told, option A for delevering at Altice France. According to press reports however, there is a gap between the offers made for Altice Portugal and the amount that Patrick Drahi wants (€7bn of proceeds wanted vs €5bn-€6bn offered); because Altice International debt will have to be repaid in the event of a sale of Portugal, €5bn of proceeds might not be enough to persuade Drahi to sell, as the amount of cash that could be up-streamed might be too smal...
- Russell Waller
French M&A: Is it possible? Proprietary survey suggests GUPPI ratio ...
On Iliad’s Q3 call, Iliad said that it had attempted M&A “seven times” before, but that it was no longer possible due to “the size of the companies merging and the complexities from an anti-trust perspective”. In this report, we update the diversion and GUPPI ratios from our recent proprietary survey, to see if Iliad is right.
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