reports
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor, Vår Energi and Aker BP reported their Q1 trading updates ahead of their full quarterly results later this month. Equinor’s update contained little incremental information for the quarter, Vår Energi reported net production of 300kboed (in line with our estimate, whereas realised prices were slightly above), and we find Aker BP’s update supportive of our 2024 above-guidance production estimate.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/04/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Restarting production at Anshof – The Permanent Production Facility (PPF), with a capacity of 3,000 bbl/d of liquids, has been commissioned and the Anshof-3 well has recommenced production at a rate of 134 bbl/d with no water. The operation has been undertaken in line with expectations and within budget. The oil production rate at Anshof-3 is 16% above the rate prior to shut-in. A...
GPRK GEOPARK
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
REP REPSOL SA
CASP CASPIAN SUNRISE
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
MAHA-A MAHA ENERGY AB
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK325.00) - On track for guidance increase
Following Aker BP’s strong Q1 trading update, with net production of 448kboed (well above our estimate of 418kboed and consensus of 433kboed), we have made minor estimate changes. We remain increasingly comfortable with our above-guidance production for 2024e and have raised our full-year production estimate from 441kboed to 445kboed (consensus at 436kboed), following the strong Q1 production, and probably even stronger Q2 production as Q1 was hindered by ~10kboed by the turnaround at Johan Sver...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we updated our estimates for Vår Energi following its Capital Markets Update. We believe Vår Energi presented a viable plan to sustain production above 340kboed until 2030, with upside potential to our estimates if exploration proves successful. As investors gain more confidence in Vår Energi’s long-term production outlook, we see the potential for a repricing towards peers on dividend yield, implying >20% upside potential from yesterday’s close. In other news, we published notes on B...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a report on Aker BP, highlighting the underperformance YTD versus peers, mainly due the soft 2024 guidance and news of Johan Sverdrup coming off plateau earlier than expected. In other headlines, the preliminary figures from NOD show overall production in line with its forecast, with gas production slightly below and liquids production slightly above. Also, the Tyra redevelopment project came on stream this week, in line with expectations.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/03/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Very high impact exploration well encounters gas and condensate in Austria – The Welchau well (ADX WI: 75%) encountered 115 m of liquids-rich gas shows in the primary target formation (Steinalm Formation) between 1452 m and 1567 m. The deepest gas shows were encountered at a depth of 1645 m. The well has reached TD at 1733 m. The Steinalm Formation intersection in the well is in l...
CNE. CANACOL ENERGY LTD
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
SAVE SAVANNAH ENERGY
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
TETY TETHYS OIL AB
TAO TAG OIL LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
IVZ INVICTUS ENERGY
UKOG UK OIL & GAS PLC
- Steffen Evjen
Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK325.00) - Storm in a teacup
While the Brent oil price has increased ~13% YTD, Aker BP’s share price is down ~8% and lagging behind peers, weighed down by news of Johan Sverdrup coming off plateau earlier than expected and the soft 2024 production guidance. We look for production slightly above the guidance, and emphasise the stock is trading at a ~9.5% dividend yield, an all-time low spread versus peers. We reiterate our BUY and NOK325 target price.
- Steffen Evjen
NCS production figures in line
Preliminary NOD (Norwegian Offshore Directorate) production figures for the NCS in February revealed gas production of 358mcm/d, slightly below NOD’s forecast. Liquids production was ~2% above NOD’s forecast at 2,064kboed. Total NCS production was down 3.2% MOM and up 1.6% YOY. On a company level, for January, Aker BP production was slightly weaker MOM, mainly due to reduced production at Johan Sverdrup (due to maintenance work), while Vår Energi saw production up 2% MOM, due to increased produc...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Vår Energi providing more granularity at its CMU on how it plans to maintain production at 350–400kboed towards 2030; 2) highlighting a broad fair value range of NOK200–375 on Equinor (this week we reiterated our HOLD); and 3) our Q4 survey of the US shale universe, showing guided 2024 production growth YOY of just ~4% (down from 8% in 2023) following operating cash flow overspend in 2023.
- Steffen Evjen
US shale: Overspend stalls growth
Our Q4 survey of the US shale universe suggests muted YOY production growth of only ~4% for 2024 (compared to 8% YOY growth for 2023), mainly concentrated around the most prominent Permian names, with most other companies guiding for limited production growth. Despite a deflationary environment for costs, most companies continue to plan for flat activity, with productivity gains remaining the primary driver for production growth. We believe the lack of ambition to grow production meaningfully at...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week we hosted our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference in Oslo, which included a panel discussion with the CEOs of Aker BP and Vår Energi. Addressing potential investor concerns, a key topic was the companies’ ability to sustain production long-term amid a structurally declining basin. In other news, the production well at Hibiscus South in the Dussafu licence has been brought on-stream. Also, BlueNord reported net production of 22.9kboed in February, at the upper end of its Q1 product...
- Steffen Evjen
Key takeaways from CEO panel at our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conf...
This week, we hosted our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping conference in Oslo, which included a panel discussion with the CEOs of Aker BP and Vår Energi. Addressing potential investor concerns, a key topic was the companies’ ability to sustain production long-term amid a structurally declining basin. Both CEOs highlighted that they are confident in being able to convert existing contingent resources into reserves. Moreover, both indicated intensifying exploration efforts in 2024, with a meaningful Y...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, BW Energy reported its Q4 results. For 2024, it expects production costs to edge higher to USD30–35/bbl versus our USD26.1/bbl estimate. The G&A guidance was also above our forecast, while the net capex guidance of USD250m–300m was in line with our USD266m estimate. In other news, NYSERDA announced that Equinor’s Empire Wind 1 project was among the winners in its fourth offshore wind solicitation round. Also, Total reaffirmed that Tyra is progressing according to plan.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/03/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of £A$0.65 per share: High impact well spud in Austria - The Welchau-1 gas exploration well was spudded on 24 February. Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; target price of A$0.13 per share: Completing divestment of Blackspur – Blackspur has been sold for A$81.6 mm, after tax provisions and net debt adjustments. Calima will distribute A$80 mm (~A$12.6 per share) as dividends. The distribution is well above the m...
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
AOI. AFRICA OIL
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
AEX AMINEX
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
RBD REABOLD RESOURCES
MAHA A MAHA ENERGY
UOG UNITED OIL & GAS
GKP GULF KEYSTONE PETROLEUM LTD.
CE1 CALIMA ENERGY
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
BWE BW ENERGY
I3E I3 ENERGY
SEPLAT SEPLAT ENERGY PLC
WDS WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LTD
HUI HYDROGEN UTOPIA INTERNATIONAL PLC
MEN MOLECULAR ENERGIES PLC
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BCE BEACON ENERGY PLC
HEVI HELIUM EVOLUTION
MCFNF INC. (HEVI)
MCF ENERGY LTD
- Steffen Evjen
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