Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Aker BP ASA: Operational track record, conservative financial policies...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its small scale and rising gross leverage, offset by its good profitability and strong operational track record.

Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Aker BP ASA and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 8 November 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Poised for a recovery

Year to date, Aker BP’s stock has been the weakest among the European majors and North Sea large caps, down ~25%. This is despite operational tailwinds: raised production guidance; lowered cost guidance; projects commencing production ahead of schedule and below budget; and a positive trend in the Johan Sverdrup plateau commentary. Thus, although the post-Q4 share price performance has tended to be lacklustre over the past five years, we believe a lot of negatives are priced in, and see some ups...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP reported Q3 results, with underlying figures in line with expectations. We believe operational tailwinds could benefit it going into 2025, with consensus perhaps underestimating the production potential. Meanwhile, although OKEA reported a strong Q3, we believe it was overshadowed by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we consider soft. In other news, we see several potential share-price catalysts for BlueNord in the coming months, with the Tyra restart se...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.80 per share: Another positive operating update – The work-overs of two new existing wells have added 441 boe/d after a combined 20 m of previously unperforated reservoir pay was accessed. The first well is producing 410 boe/d. It was previously shut-in. The second well is producing an extra 31 boe/d (+65%) and continues to clean-up. With a total cost of 100 wells on Condor’s fields includ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/31/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 31/10/2024

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Energy Morning - 31 October 2024

Aker BP : EBITDA 5% above forecasts but net income impacted by impairm...

>EBITDA 5% above forecasts but EBIT and NI impacted by impairments - Aker BP has published its Q3 2024 results with EBITDA 5% above forecasts. That said, EBIT came in 10% below forecasts at $ 1.7bn (-26% q-o-q) and net income was 60% below forecasts at $ 173m, due to the booking of $ 304m in technical impairments, which are relatively frequent at the group. The second piece of good news was the increase in CFFO from $ 1.45bn to $ 2.8bn which benefited from fewer tax ...

Aker BP : EBITDA 5% supérieur aux attentes mais le NI impacté par les ...

>Un EBITDA 5% supérieur aux attentes mais EBIT et NI impactés par les impairements - Aker BP a publié ses résultats du T3 2024 avec un EBITDA 5% supérieur aux attentes. Toutefois, l‘EBIT est ressorti 10% inférieur aux attentes à 1.7 Md$ (-266% QoQ) et le résultat net 60% inférieur à 173 M$ à cause des impairements techniques de 304 M$ assez fréquents chez le groupe. La deuxième bonne nouvelle est la hausse du CFFO de 1.45 Md$ à 2.8 Md$ qui bénéficie de moins de décai...

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Improving Sverdrup sentiment

We consider the underlying Q3 results in line, with a solid FCF beat helped by working capital release. Due to solid performance from the drilled wells put into production at Johan Sverdrup YTD, the field is now likely to produce at plateau “well into 2025” (previously “early 2025”). We believe Aker BP could benefit from operational tailwinds into 2025, with consensus possibly underestimating the production potential. We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.

Solid - as normal

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...