Energy Morning - 12 February 2025

Aker BP : 1% beat at the operating level and a 14% beat at the NI leve...

Large dividend, softer FY25 production guidance

Aker BP : 1% beat at the operating level and a 14% beat at the NI leve...

Small Q4 beat and bullish long-term guidance

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 10 February 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

Despite announcing pared-back renewables ambitions at its CMU this week, we still see a weak risk/reward for Equinor, and struggle to identify meaningful potential upside. In conjunction with the CMU, it confirmed maintained current production on Johan Sverdrup through 2025e. Given the field accounts for 50% of Aker BP's production, this week we raised our 2025–2026e production and EPS by 2%. Also, Panoro Energy reported strong Q4 production, in our view de-risking our 2025 production estimate o...

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Supportive Johan Sverdrup outlook

The operator of Johan Sverdrup recently announced that it now believes production will remain close to 2023–2024 levels in 2025, having previously expected a decline. With the field making up ~50% of Aker BP’s production, we have raised our 2025–2026e production and EPS by 2%. Still, we expect Aker BP to be conservative in its 2025 production guidance with its Q4 results (due at 06:00 CET on 12 February). We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.

Energy Morning - 6 February 2025

Energy Morning - 5 February 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

The E&P Q4 reporting season got under way this week. Despite a solid report, we believe OKEA’s results were overshadowed by the absence of any plan to start paying dividends again. Also, Vår Energi’s trading update revealed soft Q4 production and realised prices, and we continue to see meaningful downside risk to consensus 2025e production. Meanwhile, BlueNord said Tyra is now expected to reach plateau production in February.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 28 January 2025

Q4 - yet another strong quarter

Energy Morning - 27 January 2025

Five reasons why we prefer AkerBP over Vår Energi

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, OKEA published a solid Q4 trading update, with net production of 37.8kboed well above our 32.4kboed estimate, leaving full-year production at 39.1kboed, at the top end of its 37–39kboed guidance. In other news, BW Energy announced it is targeting an FID for Maromba in Q1, with capex expected around USD1.2bn (~USD1.0bn previously). Also, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary production figures for December show production was down ~5% YOY.

Soft NCS production in December

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for December showed soft liquids production of 2,018kboed (2% below forecast) and solid gas production of 361mcm/d (2% above forecast). Overall production was 4.29mmboed, up 1.2% MOM (in line with its forecast), but down 5.3% YOY. On a company level, Equinor, Vår Energi and DNO saw higher production MOM in November, while Aker BP (which has already reported Q4 production) and OKEA saw lower production MOM.