Solid operations, proper capital allocation

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/31/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 31/10/2024

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Energy Morning - 31 October 2024

Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK48.00) - Small SOTP discount removed

Having repeatedly said a capital allocation strategy update would be provided with the Q4 results, it surprised the market by announcing a dividend of NOK21/share (46% of market cap) prior to the Q3 results, effectively meaning all liquid investments are to be distributed. We expect focus to be on the value of ‘the stub’, its 20% OneSubsea stake and proper working capital adjustments. As our SOTP had a 5% discount on the items now being distributed, we have increased our target price to NOK48 (4...

Aker BP : EBITDA 5% above forecasts but net income impacted by impairm...

>EBITDA 5% above forecasts but EBIT and NI impacted by impairments - Aker BP has published its Q3 2024 results with EBITDA 5% above forecasts. That said, EBIT came in 10% below forecasts at $ 1.7bn (-26% q-o-q) and net income was 60% below forecasts at $ 173m, due to the booking of $ 304m in technical impairments, which are relatively frequent at the group. The second piece of good news was the increase in CFFO from $ 1.45bn to $ 2.8bn which benefited from fewer tax ...

Ørsted : A first, not entirely convincing, step in the group’s disposa...

>Ørsted sells 12.45% stake in four wind farms to Brookfield - Ørsted yesterday announced the sale of a 12.45% stake in four of its UK offshore wind farms to Brookfield Group and its partners. This concerns Hornesa 1, Hornesa 2, Walney Extension and Burbo Bank Extension, with a combined total capacity of around 3.5 GW. The value of the transaction is £ 1.745bn (approx. DKK 15.7bn), i.e. $ 4bn/GW or DKK 36bn/GW. Brookfield will finance the transaction through Brookfield...

Aker BP : EBITDA 5% supérieur aux attentes mais le NI impacté par les ...

>Un EBITDA 5% supérieur aux attentes mais EBIT et NI impactés par les impairements - Aker BP a publié ses résultats du T3 2024 avec un EBITDA 5% supérieur aux attentes. Toutefois, l‘EBIT est ressorti 10% inférieur aux attentes à 1.7 Md$ (-266% QoQ) et le résultat net 60% inférieur à 173 M$ à cause des impairements techniques de 304 M$ assez fréquents chez le groupe. La deuxième bonne nouvelle est la hausse du CFFO de 1.45 Md$ à 2.8 Md$ qui bénéficie de moins de décai...

Ørsted : Un premier pas, pas tout à fait convaincant, dans la stratégi...

>Ørsted cède 12,45% de quatre parcs éoliens à Brookfield - Ørsted a annoncé hier la cession de 12,45% dans quatre de ses parcs éoliens maritimes britanniques au groupe Brookfield et ses partenaires. Il s’agit notamment d’Hornesa 1, Hornesa 2, Walney Extension et Burbo Bank Extension, d’une capacité totale combinée d'environ 3,5 GW. Le montant de la transaction est de 1.745 Md£ (environ 15,7 MdDKK), soit 4 Md$/GW ou 36 MdDKK/GW. Brookfield financera cette transaction p...

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Improving Sverdrup sentiment

We consider the underlying Q3 results in line, with a solid FCF beat helped by working capital release. Due to solid performance from the drilled wells put into production at Johan Sverdrup YTD, the field is now likely to produce at plateau “well into 2025” (previously “early 2025”). We believe Aker BP could benefit from operational tailwinds into 2025, with consensus possibly underestimating the production potential. We reiterate our BUY and NOK280 target price.

Strong Q3 - ok guidance, ramping up exploration

Dividend increase approaching

Near-term headwinds

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Rexel, Nexans, Liberty Global, Sunrise, Aston Martin, Techem, Synlab, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Boparan, Borr Drilling, PureGym

Solid - as normal

Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK46.00) - Low visibility beyond 2025

Despite our expectation of continued strong execution near-term (reflected in our increased 2025e EBITDA), we believe the combination of weak prospects for new large orders and the upcoming working capital unwind will weigh on the stock in the quarters ahead. We find it fairly valued on our SOTP and believe investor focus will gradually shift towards the lack of backlog upon completion of the Aker BP portfolio projects. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK46 target price.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 30/10/2024

Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/30/2024

The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...