AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...

Production ramping up, dividends will follow

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production reaching 13 mbbl/d. Two high ...

• There were no surprises in the 3Q24 accounts. • Since last week, WI production has increased from 12.5 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d. • Gross production in Gabon continues to be ~40 mbbl/d. Three further workovers for ESP installation are planned during 4Q24. The nameplate capacity of the FPSO could be increased by 10% to 44 mbbl/d. • Gross production in EG stands at 29 mbbl/d. The second infill well is starting production and could take overall gross production in EG to 35 mbbl/d. This new well could ...

Energy Morning - 20 November 2024

Brent spot: USD 73.0bbl, up 0.5/bbl from last OSE close.OSX: 77.3, down 1% since last OSE close.Borr (B): receives another suspension – not unexpected but a small negative.DNO (B): "good chance that a discovery has been made" on Falstaff, positive.PEN (B) Q3: Production now above 13kboe/d.API estim

Q3: Production now above 13kboe/d

Q3 EBIT of USD 10m vs ABGSCe of USD 10m. Production above 13kboe/d, cons FY'24 EBITDA looks ~14% too high. Minor news: negative revisions for Q4 mitigated by potential increase to '25 production.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Odigeo, Engineering Group, Teva, Versuni (formerly Philips Domestic Appliances), Alain Afflelou, Eircom, Iliad, Borr Drilling, Ithaca Energy, Tullow Oil, Victoria, TUI Cruises, Axactor, McLaren, EVOCA, Flos B&B Italia (formerly International Design Group)

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Exiting the year on a high

We forecast USD17m in Q3 EBITDA (no reliable consensus). While 2024 has been hampered by operational issues, we still see 2024 exit production of ~13kboed, with Dussafu already producing at a plateau of 40kboed (gross) in mid-November. Thus, with most hiccups hopefully over, we believe Panoro is well positioned for significant FCF expansion in 2025–2026e, supported by production growth and a decline in capex. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK38 (39), factoring in increase...

BW Energy (Buy, TP: NOK33.00) - Dussafu cash flow to fund Maromba

BW Energy reported Q3 EBITDA of USD130m, compared to our USD155m estimate and Bloomberg consensus of USD118m. Due to a successful workover programme for the conventional ESPs and solid operational performance in Gabon, the company has achieved plateau production at Dussafu of 40kboed (gross) before year-end, which is setting the stage for significant cash generation from the Dussafu field into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and NOK33 target price.

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Almaviva, Infopro Digital, TalkTalk, Intrum, Victoria, Vallourec, Kantar, Borr Drilling

Dussafu finally at production plateau

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...

Energy Morning - 15 November 2024

Brent spot: USD 72.8bbl, up 0.99/bbl from last OSE close.OSX: 78.0, up 0.7% since last OSE close.IEA revises up call-on-OPEC for 2024, lowers 2025e.US crude oil inventory build of 2.1mbbl.PEN (B) Q3 trading update: Dussafu producing >40kboe/d, potential ~9% upside to ’25 EBITDA.BWO Q3 (B): USD 1

Q3: EBITDA 7% above, producing >40kboe/d at Dussafu

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Energy Morning - 14 November 2024

Aker BP ASA: Operational track record, conservative financial policies...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its small scale and rising gross leverage, offset by its good profitability and strong operational track record.

Energy Morning - 13 November 2024