Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resu...

Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels

Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...

Swedish food retail market: +5% in October

Aker BP ASA: Operational track record, conservative financial policies...

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its small scale and rising gross leverage, offset by its good profitability and strong operational track record.

Moody's Ratings announces completion of a periodic review of ratings o...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Aker BP ASA and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 8 November 2024 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Odfjell SE: 1 director

A director at Odfjell SE bought 50,000 shares at 109.710NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 64/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Poised for a recovery

Year to date, Aker BP’s stock has been the weakest among the European majors and North Sea large caps, down ~25%. This is despite operational tailwinds: raised production guidance; lowered cost guidance; projects commencing production ahead of schedule and below budget; and a positive trend in the Johan Sverdrup plateau commentary. Thus, although the post-Q4 share price performance has tended to be lacklustre over the past five years, we believe a lot of negatives are priced in, and see some ups...

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, DNO reported Q3 underlying results fairly in line with our estimates. It also introduced a long-term production guidance for its North Sea operations, which we find a bit too aggressive. Still, we estimate the North Sea net production to increase from 15kboed in 2024 to >20kboed in 2027. In other news, Equinor acquired a 11.8% stake from Sval Energi in the Halten East development, and BlueNord’s preliminary October production figures were at the lower end of its Q4 base production gui...

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK210.00) - Solid tanker yield at a discount

We see potential for the tanker market to improve on healthy demand and limited 3% supply growth in 2025e. We forecast a solid dividend yield of 20% for 2025–2026, and believe the stock offers attractive tanker exposure, trading at an average 2025–2026e EV/EBITDA of 2.3x (peers 4.2x) and P/E of 2.6x (peers 5.4x). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK210 (205), mainly on currency effects.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP reported Q3 results, with underlying figures in line with expectations. We believe operational tailwinds could benefit it going into 2025, with consensus perhaps underestimating the production potential. Meanwhile, although OKEA reported a strong Q3, we believe it was overshadowed by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we consider soft. In other news, we see several potential share-price catalysts for BlueNord in the coming months, with the Tyra restart se...

Two upgrades, an equity raise, and transactions

This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.