This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.
The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
The recent announcement of the application of trade tariffs by the Trump administration led to a sharp correction in oil prices amidst fears of an economic slowdown as a result of a full-blown trade war. We are adopting a more cautious scenario, with oil prices now expected to reach $ 67/b for 2025, $ 65/b for 2026 and $ 67/b in the longer term. Our 2025-2030 capex scenario has been lowered by 5% and our EPS expectations by 13% on average over 2025-2027, whilst our target prices have been lowere...
La récente annonce de mise en place de droits de douanes par l’administration Trump a entraîné une vive correction des cours du pétrole sur fond de crainte de ralentissement économique à la suite d’une véritable guerre commerciale. Nous adoptons un scenario plus prudent avec un baril désormais attendu respectivement à 67 $ sur2025, 65 $ 2026 et 67 $ sur le LT. Notre scénario de Capex 2025/30 a été abaissé de 5% et nos attentes de BPA de 13% en moyenne sur 2025/27 et nos OC de 10%. Nous privilégi...
We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...
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