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Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Slow start to an exciting year

We estimate Q1 EBIT of NOK 774m (-10% vs. FactSet consensus). '24e EBIT -5% as biological issues offset higher spot prices. Patience is a virtue: '24-25e PE 10x-9x – BUY, TP NOK 65 (59).

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Electrolux AB: 1 director

A director at Electrolux AB sold 24,516 shares at 96.780SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

 PRESS RELEASE

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA: Key information relating to the cash dividend...

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA: Key information relating to the cash dividend to be paid by Lerøy Seafood Group ASA Dividend amount: NOK 2.5 per shareDeclared currency: NOKLast day including right: 28 May 2024Ex-date: 29 May 2024Record date: 30 May 2024Payment date: 5 June 2024Date of approval: 28 May 2024 This information is published in accordance with the requirements of the Oslo Børs Rule Book II section 4.2.4 (1) no. 3.  

 PRESS RELEASE

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA: Annual report for 2023

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA: Annual report for 2023 Please find attached Lerøy Seafood Group ASA's annual report for 2023. The annual report is also attached in a machine-readable format according to ESEF (European Single Electronic Format). As part of the group’s integrated reporting, an overview of priorities, measurements, and targets within environment, social and governance (“ESG”) is included. The Board of Directors has proposed a dividend payment of NOK 2.50 per share for distribution in 2024. Key dates are set out in a separate stock exchange announcement. ...

 PRESS RELEASE

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA: Årsrapport for 2023

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA: Årsrapport for 2023          Vedlagt følger årsrapport for Lerøy Seafood Group ASA for 2023. Som del av konsernets integrerte rapportering inneholder årsrapporten en oversikt over fokusområder, måleindikatorer og mål innen miljø, samfunnsmessig og finansiell bærekraft (ESG). Årsrapporten er også vedlagt i et maskinlesbart format i tråd med ESEF (European Single Electronic Format).  Styret har foreslått et utbytte til utbetaling i 2024 på NOK 2,50 per aksje. Det vises til egen børsmelding med relevante datoer. ...

ABGSC Media Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Derek Laliberté
Ebba Bjorklid
  • Ebba Bjorklid

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK98.00) - Next chapter

The outlook remains weak and we now expect Electrolux to be loss-making in 2024. However, CEO Jonas Samuelson’s resignation opens up for large-scale restructuring, which we deem necessary to move the EBIT margin closer to its ≥6% target and reduce the all-time high net debt. We have raised our sales and earnings estimates and cut our net debt assumptions after 2026, as we believe a new CEO could improve the sales, earnings and leverage trajectory over time. We have therefore upgraded to HOLD (SE...

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Enjoy the ride

We trim estimates somewhat. Reassuring outlook for new construction. Potential for >15% share price CAGR until 2026. BUY.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Aker BP ASA - December 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

Niklas Wetterling
  • Niklas Wetterling

Catena (Buy, TP: SEK515.00) - Time to put the money to work

The Q1 results were solid in our view; although the vacancy rate rose, it was from a very low level, and was therefore of limited concern. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK515 (500). In our view, Catena has (too much) firepower following its last equity raise and we would like to see more M&A, project activity, or speedy reinvestment. Following the equity raise the stock looks highly valued on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 21–19x, but that drops to 15–14x adjusted for earnings...

ABGSC Media Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Derek Laliberté

Exciting year ahead

Seasonally weak Q1 to show strong improvement. We have become more optimistic about profitability. BUY: Storytel is on a good path and the valuation is too low.

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