reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Reliance Industries (Neutral, TP: INR 3,400, +25%) Q2 FY25 Quick Take...
Reliance Industries posted results yesterday. Jio remained the bright spot as it benefited from the tariff hike effective since July. However, weaker O2C and Retail saw revenue decelerate whilst EBITDA was lower due to the fall in O2C product margins. Notwithstanding this, momentum is building up for Jio AirFiber as FWA additions accelerated and commentary suggests that Retail sales is picking up in October leading up to the festive period.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Jio targeting doubling in size and 1m monthly adds for FWA ...
What's New: At Reliance Industries’ AGM last week, Jio announced 2 key things, and did not announce a 3rd: What was announced: 1. A doubling of Jio’s profitability in 3-4 years 2. Target of 1m FWA adds per month What was not announced: 1. A time line for Jio IPO Our thoughts and implications for the Indian & Global telco markets below
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q2 24 review: Continued margin expansion from XL an...
Indonesian telcos returned to a more sustainable pace of revenue growth, with EBITDA ahead of topline for XL and Indosat again. As a result, Indosat recorded its highest ever EBITDA margin whilst XL’s margin remained well ahead of guidance. For Telkomsel, enterprise accelerated with strong Indihome net additions but was marred by continued mobile revenue share dilution (although easing) as peers grabbed shares in ex-Java.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile India's auction concludes - Our final thoughts
India's spectrum auction concluded yesterday with 141.4 MHz of airwaves being sold across the 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2500 MHz band for INR 113 bn (US$ 1.36bn). Our proprietary spectrum analytics tool (SpectrumHub) suggests that prices paid were largely in line with the reserve prices, and close to our original expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel, Airtel Africa & Singtel At $100bn, downgrade Bharti Ai...
Bharti crossing $100bn market cap makes us address the question of which parts of the Bharti/Singtel/Airtel Africa capital structure are most attractive. Bharti has the momentum, but the valuation gap is now extreme. Reversion to the mean will likely happen at some point which means sensible investors in Bharti should now be switching into Singtel (for yield) or Airtel Africa (for growth).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indian Mobile Q3 FY24 review: Still tracking well even without tariff...
India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti and Jio improving at the expense of VIL. Industry ARPU tracked MSD again even without any meaningful tariff hikes; we expect increases to be put through in 2H CY24 though that has largely been priced in. EBITDA continue to trend ahead of topline, with YoY margins improvement across the board. Earlier last month, the government also approved the auction for 10,523 MHz of spectrum which starts from INR 963bn (USD 11.6bn). However, w...
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,500, +34%) Marginal margin continuing t...
Following a very strong H2 2023, Bharti has retraced nearly INR 100/share. We remain bullish and would see the sell-down as a buying opportunity. Consensus forecasts continue to look too low to us; in this note we focus on the consumer margin, which we think is likely to surprise to the upside.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,400, +26%) Q3 FY24 Quick Take: In-line,...
Excluding the Naira devaluation impact, Bharti Airtel reported in-line results for its Indian businesses, with sustained margin expansion again. Indian mobile performance remained strong, with ARPU and revenue growth ahead of peers ahead. Trends also remained strong for Home Services, with Digital TV seeing a nice acceleration post the inflection last quarter.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Q2 FY24 review: Core mobile still decent, with margin i...
India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti outperforming on mobile service revenue growth on a YoY basis again. Whilst Jio posted better net additions, its ARPU trend was softer. Bharti’s Enterprise business did slow down however, largely a function of the deferred spending by global OTT players driven by current global macro.
- Chris Hoare
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