reports
Indian Telcos Q2 FY26 review: Remain constructive as Jio’s IPO nears
India’s mobile revenue growth moderated as expected, after lapping last year’s tariff increase. As the IPO of Jio nears, we foresee another potential price increase. Separately for Vodafone Idea, we think AGR relief seems likely but we question whether this is sufficient to enable the company to reach “escape velocity” and become a viable 3rd operator again.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, INR 2,750 from INR 2,180, +32%) All cylinders fir...
Bharti has always performed well in anticipation of price increases, which we think are likely in H1 next year. The company also looks set to be seeing accelerating growth in both Home, and Enterprise, while Airtel Africa continues to knock it out of the park, and capex is constrained. What’s not to like? PT to 2,750.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY26 review: Strong but moderation expected as it la...
Mobile trends accelerated with margin expansion a recurring theme across the board. Both Jio and Bharti have recently discontinued their lowest entry pack which should sustain ARPU in the low-double digits, however the bullishness in mobile trajectory appears to have already been reflected in consensus.
- Chris Hoare
Reliance Industries (Buy, TP: INR 1,700, +18%) Q1 FY26 Quick Take: St...
Reliance Industries delivered a record quarterly EBITDA and earnings, supported by a one-off gain from the sale of Asian Paints. Offsetting that, underlying earnings were still up strongly (+25% YoY) as O2C, Retail and Jio posted better margins. Crucially, Reliance Jio now claims to be the largest FWA provider globally supporting our view that FWA is following an S-curve development
Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive
India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Reliance Industries (Buy, TP: INR 1,700, +26%) Q4 FY25 Quick Take: St...
Reliance Industries closed off FY25 with strong Retail and O2C topline growth, alongside continued strength in Jio’s profitability. The company has also proposed a INR 5.5 dividend per share, which was in-line with expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q3 FY25 review: Sustained margin expansion from July’s ...
Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos
- Chris Hoare
EM FWA-Watch S-Curve continuing to accelerate in India, with implicat...
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...
Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.
- Chris Hoare
Reliance Industries Ltd (Buy, INR 1,700, +32%) Q3 FY25 Quick Take: Tu...
Reliance Industries posted strong results yesterday, backed by the turnaround in Retail during the festive period and recovery in O2C margins. Jio remained the bright spot as ARPU accelerated and crossed the INR 200 mark. Momentum continues to build for broadband as Jio AirFiber reached 4.5m.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Quick thoughts on the bank guarantees waiver
India’s Union Cabinet has approved the waiver of the bank guarantees related to spectrum acquired by the operators before 2022. Vodafone Idea was the key beneficiary of this news as it owed INR 247bn versus Bharti (INR 30bn) and Jio (INR 40bn). As a result, VIL shares rose sharply today. Our brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Reliance Industries (Neutral, TP: INR 3,400, +25%) Q2 FY25 Quick Take...
Reliance Industries posted results yesterday. Jio remained the bright spot as it benefited from the tariff hike effective since July. However, weaker O2C and Retail saw revenue decelerate whilst EBITDA was lower due to the fall in O2C product margins. Notwithstanding this, momentum is building up for Jio AirFiber as FWA additions accelerated and commentary suggests that Retail sales is picking up in October leading up to the festive period.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Jio targeting doubling in size and 1m monthly adds for FWA ...
What's New: At Reliance Industries’ AGM last week, Jio announced 2 key things, and did not announce a 3rd: What was announced: 1. A doubling of Jio’s profitability in 3-4 years 2. Target of 1m FWA adds per month What was not announced: 1. A time line for Jio IPO Our thoughts and implications for the Indian & Global telco markets below
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