reports
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q3 FY25 review: Sustained margin expansion from July’s ...
Trends continued to benefit from last July’s tariff hike with sustained margin expansion across all three operators. Capex intensity is expected to moderate further for Bharti as network build decelerates, whereas VIL would accelerate its spending on the back of its 5G launch in March. India’s FWA development remains promising, with potential positive implications on EM Telcos
- Chris Hoare
EM FWA-Watch S-Curve continuing to accelerate in India, with implicat...
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...
Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY25 review: Slower mobile with modest rise in margi...
Indian mobile revenue rose steadily despite slowing this quarter due to softer ARPU trend. Both Bharti and Jio continue to take share from Vodafone Idea again. Mobile EBITDA kept ahead of topline with all three seeing YoY improvements in margin. Overall, Bharti remained ahead on both metrics.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Neutral, TP: INR 1,500, +3%) Bharti Global to acquire ...
Bharti Enterprise's investment arm, Bharti Global, has sought to acquire 24.5% stake in BT from Altice UK. Although Bharti Airtel is separately owned by Bharti Enterprise (through Bharti Telecom), we share our thoughts on why we perceive this to be a likely overhang on Bharti Airtel.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile India's auction concludes - Our final thoughts
India's spectrum auction concluded yesterday with 141.4 MHz of airwaves being sold across the 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 2500 MHz band for INR 113 bn (US$ 1.36bn). Our proprietary spectrum analytics tool (SpectrumHub) suggests that prices paid were largely in line with the reserve prices, and close to our original expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Mobile Q4 FY24 review: Faster trends; Vodafone raises money fi...
India’s mobile sector quickened its topline pace to 10% YoY, led by better net additions and a sustained MSD ARPU trend. EBITDA margins continue to rise while capex is set to moderate for both Bharti and Jio. On the other hand, Vodafone has guided to spend between INR 500bn and 550bn on network expansion over the next three years after finally raising new equity.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Indian Mobile Q3 FY24 review: Still tracking well even without tariff...
India’s telecom industry continue to grow in the HSD, with Bharti and Jio improving at the expense of VIL. Industry ARPU tracked MSD again even without any meaningful tariff hikes; we expect increases to be put through in 2H CY24 though that has largely been priced in. EBITDA continue to trend ahead of topline, with YoY margins improvement across the board. Earlier last month, the government also approved the auction for 10,523 MHz of spectrum which starts from INR 963bn (USD 11.6bn). However, w...
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,500, +34%) Marginal margin continuing t...
Following a very strong H2 2023, Bharti has retraced nearly INR 100/share. We remain bullish and would see the sell-down as a buying opportunity. Consensus forecasts continue to look too low to us; in this note we focus on the consumer margin, which we think is likely to surprise to the upside.
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel (Buy, TP: INR 1,400, +26%) Q3 FY24 Quick Take: In-line,...
Excluding the Naira devaluation impact, Bharti Airtel reported in-line results for its Indian businesses, with sustained margin expansion again. Indian mobile performance remained strong, with ARPU and revenue growth ahead of peers ahead. Trends also remained strong for Home Services, with Digital TV seeing a nice acceleration post the inflection last quarter.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
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