reports
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
BT Group (Buy, 220p, +64%) Was 225p Q2 25: Is the share price decline...
BT’s stock is trading off 6% at the time of publication on a quarter where EBITDA beat consensus and all profitability guidance has been maintained. In fact, given the future guidance now also includes an incremental £100m impact from last week’s Budget, the guidance is actually an upgrade.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget
Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre/ Sky/ BT: Our take A deal we have been expecting for some t...
Cityfibre has announced a new wholesale agreement with Sky this morning – a headline we have been waiting for over the past 3 years. Therefore, we think both our BT and Cityfibre models are well prepared for this. In this note, we run through the potential impact from the deal and its details. We then look at what next steps we should be expecting from here. (Our Cityfibre model is also available on request for those interested).
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, 225p, +60%) Bharti deal will trigger more buying in the mark...
Given our recent note on Drahi switching the way he owns his BT shares, the Bharti Global announcement to buy his 24.5% stake is very timely. In this note, we run through the mechanics of how we think this will work, and what this might mean.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.30, +63%) Drahi's position: Revealing what is going on
Ever since Drahi’s surprised people by buying a 12% stake in BT back in 2021 and scaled up to 24.5% by 2023, there has been much discussion about how Drahi owns his stake and how it might be financed. This has material implications for any potential overhang on BT’s position, and our new analysis of his structuring leads us to believe that any overhang is much lower than the market might fear.
- James Ratzer
BT Group (Buy, £2.30, +68%) 1Q25: Where are the broadband subscribers...
BT reported reasonable Q1 financial results this morning, but investor focus will be on a further deterioration in broadband line losses to -196k (-122k in Q4). In this note, we take a look at where these broadband losses might be going and implications for the broader UK broadband market. This is therefore also relevant for all credit investors currently looking at TalkTalk.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...
European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.35, +68%) Was £1.95 Revisiting the Openreach story: Ta...
Given the moving dynamics in the UK broadband market, we revisit all our bottom up assumptions for Openreach coming away more positive on the longer-term upside in the asset, despite some near-term headwinds from line losses. This remains a conviction Buy for us and we run through all our key assumptions and views in this note, and also the potential impact for VMO2.
- James Ratzer
UK Altnet Update: Consolidation underway Implications for BT and the ...
Earlier this year, Cityfibre bought LitFibre, but over the weekend, we saw a larger UK altnet consolidation deal between Netomnia and Brsk. In this note, we review the implications of this deal, the next steps for the UK altnet landscape and what this deal might mean for Openreach/ BT.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Chris Hoare
- James Ratzer
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Soomit Datta
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.00, +77%) Q3 results: New CEO's first day & record FTTP b...
BT has reported Q3 results marginally ahead of consensus expectations and all FY24 financial guidance has been re-iterated. Today is also the first day in the job for new CEO, Allison Kirkby, so in this note, we look ahead to what she could be focused on for the FY results in May and we review the Q3 trends in more detail and what stands out.
- James Ratzer
Stratospheric drones: A game changer for rural networks?
The start of a New Year can often herald a barrage of Look Ahead notes – and last month we published our own Look Ahead note for the telecoms sector in 2024. However, in this note, we really aim to look ahead focusing on a new technology that could potentially have longer-term and far reaching implications for the telecoms sector: stratospheric drones.
- James Ratzer
Upper 6-GHz: Further regulatory support for sector
On Monday, we published our sector outlook for 2024 and one of our key supports for the sector is the idea that the regulation can act as a tailwind for the sector. Readers of our work will know we have been exploring the upper-6GHz spectrum band, and therefore we have been interested in the World Radio Congress decision taken on this last week. In this note, we review next steps on this potentially transformative spectrum band.
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