The phasing out of local car trade-in subsidies has hammered auto sales. PEV sales fell 17% yoy during the first week of December. Subsidies will resume in early-26 and trigger a sales rebound. We expect PV sales and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20.0% in 2026 respectively, driven by exports. Geely is catching up with BYD in terms of market share (12.1% vs 13.8%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers will regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Ge...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
Auto Guangzhou 2025 highlighted intelligent electrification, all-scenario NOA, smart cockpits, EREVs, and futuristic concepts like flying cars and humanoid robots. Stock winners: Geely, XPeng, GWM; supply chain beneficiaries: CATL, Fuyao, Tuopu, Desay SV, Minth, BYD and Li Auto are expected to face margin pressures in 2026. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, XPeng and Minth. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oct 25, while PEV retail sales grew 7% yoy. PV retail sales fell 19% yoy and 4% mom in 1-9 Nov 25, mainly due to the high base. China has launched a three-month crackdown on exaggerated auto ads to curb false claims, restore market order, and strengthen consumer trust. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weichai to HK$24.50.
Ganfeng Lithium’s 3Q25 results beat our expectation, with net profit making a turnaround to Rmb557m (+364.0% yoy). This brings 9M25 net profit to Rmb26m. We change our 2025 net loss forecast of Rmb149m to a net profit of Rmb407m. We also raise our 2026-27 earnings forecasts by 42%/21% to Rmb1,925m/Rmb3,309m respectively, based on higher sales volume and gross margin. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY and increase the target price from HK$40.00 to HK$78.00 for Hshare. Our rating and target price for A-sha...
Greater China Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected...
Top Stories Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected ...
The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but longterm risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Small/Mid Ca...
This week we focus on China's automobile sector under the "anti-involution" policy, which is slowing auto sales and stabilising car prices, but pressuring margins. While domestic sales slow, exports remain strong. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s automobile sector, with CATL and Geely as our top BUYs for innovation, while advising investors to SELL BYD and Li Auto due to margin and sales pressures. Key focuses include policy execution, inventory and overseas expansion challenges.
China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target.
China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa and the Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China has launched a three-month MIIT-led campaign to curb online misconduct in the auto industry, using selfinspections and penalties to reduce misinformation and promote competition on product quality. China’s PV insurance registrations fell 30% wow due to seasonality and consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment. Lithium carbonate prices correct on the production resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s auto sector; top...
The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s antiinvolution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
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