China’s PV insurance registrations grew 29% yoy, 15% mom and 14% wow during 11-17 Nov 24. PEV market share dipped 2.6ppt wow to 51.5%. BYD's price cuts aim to boost sales but risk pressuring 4Q24 margins. The NDRC indicated support for ICE-cars, the first time in recent years. The Guangzhou Auto Show highlighted record-breaking figures and new trends in technology, models and pricing. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 27% yoy but fell 17% mom and 11% wow during 4-10 Nov 24. Major carmakers saw a dip in insurance registrations in China last week. PEVs’ market share rose 1.8ppt wow to 54.1%. We conducted a detailed assessment of the impact of US tariffs on the companies under our coverage, as shown in the last page. We believe auto part manufacturers are more vulnerable than OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao, and Desay SV.
Trump's potential tariffs would dent the margins of Chinese auto part companies, as they have >20% revenue coming from the US market. Nexteer is the biggest victim and Fuyao Glass the biggest beneficiary. China’s PV insurance registrations grew 30% yoy/39% mom/6% wow during 28 Oct-3 Nov 24, in line with expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. We replace Tuopu and Minth with Fuyao Glass in our top BUY list.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew by 0.2% yoy but fell 2.7% mom and 38.8% wow during 30 Sep-6 Oct 24. Major car makers saw a dip in insurance registrations in China last week due to the National Day Holiday. PEV market share dipped by 4.3ppt wow to 45.4%. Tesla’s "We, Robot" event showcased its Robotaxi, Robovan and the new generation of humanoid robots. Chinese part suppliers will benefit from Tesla's new product launches. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely.
China’s September EV sales beat expectations, especially those of BYD and Geely. Based on lower market risk premium and discount rates, we raise target prices of the sector across the board. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top BUYs are CATL, Geely, Desay SV, Tuopu and Minth, based on their more attractive valuations relative to historic ranges compared with peers. Upgrade both Ganfeng Lithium and Tinci from SELL to HOLD.
China’s PV insurance registrations fell by 4.8% yoy and 4.4% wow during 16-22 Sep 24, missing estimates. PEV market share dipped by 3.6ppt wow to 49.5%. Denza has become a wholly-owned subsidiary of BYD but has dropped out of the top 10 in the weekly sales rankings for pure-play EV names, replaced by GWM’s Wey brand. Joyson is rapidly ramping up production capacity to fulfil the new orders intake. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: GAC.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 4.8% yoy, missing estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. INDONESIA Update Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,850/Target: Rp12,000) Strong loan growth continues; asset quality remains solid. MALAYSIA Update SD Guthrie (SDG MK/HOLD/RM4.88/Target: RM4.75) Plantatio...
The findings from our analysis on 1H24 financials generally reconfirm our segmental preference and stock picks for the auto sector. We prefer names with better earnings qualities in regard to margins and cash flows (eg Geely, GWM, CATL, Desay SV and FYG) to the others (eg BYD, Li Auto, XPeng, GAC, Nexteer, EVE Energy, Ganfeng and Zhongsheng). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: GAC.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew by 14.7% yoy but fell 19.5% wow during 2-8 Sep 24, beating estimate. PEV market share rebounded by 4.3ppt wow to a record of 43.9%. CATL’s market share in China’s power battery market remained steady at 44.5% in Aug 24. Lithium stocks rallied due to the production halt of CATL’s lithium mine in Yichun, but a recovery in the lithium industry is still not in sight. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: GAC.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 14.7% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. Consumer 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectations; disciplined operations matter. INDONESIA Update Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp680/Target: Rp900) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded by 10% yoy and 13% wow to 514,134 units in 26 Aug-1 Sep 24. PEV market share dropped to 49.6% from 53% in the previous week. However, Li Auto saw wow sales decline during the week. Geely’s Zeekr and Galaxy saw buoyant sales growth, driven by new models. CATL’s market share in the global EV battery market remained steady at 38% in 7M24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 10% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng. INDONESIA Update Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ/BUY/Rp1,130/Target: Rp1,400) Additional capacity of 55MW by Dec 24. Upgrade to BUY with target price unchanged. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM1.65/Target: RM2.00) ...
China’s PV insurance registration grew 10% yoy/14% mom but fell 13% wow in the week of 5-11 Aug 24, beating estimates. However, all incremental sales went to PEV, boosting PEV market share to a record of 53%. Galaxy’s sales quadrupled yoy and doubled wow last week, driven by E5. Zeekr recently launched the 2025 Zeekr 001, less than half a year after the debut of 2024 version, irritating old customers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Desay SV. Top SELLs: XPeng and Nexteer.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Another month of lacklustre growth. Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV market share tops record 53% on increased subsidies. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Desay SV. Top SELLs: XPeng and Nexteer. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$76.40/Target: HK$95.00) 1QFY25: Solid cloud re...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded by 17% yoy and 6% wow to 471,000 units in 29 Jul-4 Aug 24, beating expectations on increased subsidies. However, Li Auto and Xpeng saw wow sales decline during the week. PEV market share edged up 0.6ppt wow to 48.4% last week, but exceeded 50% in Jul 24, the first time ever on a monthly basis. China’s auto exports grew 19% yoy but fell 14% mom in Jun 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng.
China’s PV insurance registrations dropped 2% yoy and grew 14% wow to 446,000 units in the 30th week of 2024 (22-28 Jul 24), in line with estimates. Major EV makers saw wow sales increase as sales are usually skewed to the month’s end. PEV market share decreased to 47.8%. Auto part manufacturers performed well, with FYG posting upbeat preliminary 1H24 results and Joyson’s margins improving as expected. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
China’s PV insurance registrations dropped 6% yoy and grew 9% wow to 390,000 units in the 29th week of 2024 (15-21 Jul 24), in line with estimates. PEV market share remained at around 50% for three consecutive weeks. Tesla's stock price dropped 10% due to disappointing 2Q24 results and policy uncertainties from the US election. Doubling cash-for-clunker subsidies could boost PV consumption. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng.
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