reports
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK): 1Q24: Net loss remains, in line. Maintain S...
GFL’s 1Q24 net loss came in at Rmb439m, vs our 2024 net profit forecasts of Rmb1,194m and consensus’ Rmb5,288m. The disappointing results lies in margins. Gross margin plummeted 31.1ppt yoy to 6.2% in 1Q24 due to a drop in ASP. We expect GFL’s earnings to be dragged by falling lithium carbonate prices. We maintain our 2024-26 net profit forecasts at Rmb1,194m/Rmb934m/Rmb879m respectively. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$15.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Thursday, May 2, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected at 50.4% (-0.4ppt) and stayed in the expansionary zone for the second month. It was mainly supported by production and new orders as employment remained a drag, dropping 0.1ppt to 48.0%. Non-manufacturing hit a three-month low of 51.2%, dragged by moderation in new orders and business expectations. We expect policy support to continue and the July Politburo may see new measures being rolled out. Sector Aviation T...
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
002352 S.F. HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
601012 LONGI GREEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
600019 BAOSHAN IRON & STEEL CO. LTD. CLASS A
YUMC YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC.
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
603259 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS A
WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS H
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile: Upgrade from UNDERWEIGHT to MARKET WEIGHT on bigger-...
We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebound for two weeks in a row, but ...
China’s PEV sales grew 9% yoy and 12% wow during the week of 15-21 Apr 24, implying a 44.9% market share. BYD, Zeekr and XPeng saw sales rebound during the week, in line with expectations; Aion, Li Auto and Tesla posted lower sales, below expectations. Tesla posted disappointing 1Q24 results on a sales drop, and cut prices of Model Y/3 by 5-6%. Li Auto also cut prices by 5-7%, intensifying the price war. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL and Yadea.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
060310 3S KOREA
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: PEV sales up 21% yoy/19% wow in the second we...
China’s PEV sales grew 21% yoy and 19% wow during the week of 8-14 Apr 24, implying a 46% market share. BYD, Li Auto and XPeng posted in-line sales during the week, while Tesla’s and Zeekr’s sales came in lower than expected due to competition. We expect Zeekr’s sales to recover, based on its better product qualities vs rivals and new model debuts. CATL posted in-line 1Q24 results with core earnings growing 19% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto, XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile: Weekly: Raise 2024 auto sales growth to 7.5% on bigg...
We raise our 2024 forecasts on China’s vehicle sales growth and EV sales growth from -5.1%/+10.8% to +7.5%/+21.7% respectively on higher 1Q24 sales given bigger-thanexpected price cuts, stronger exports and stimulus. Despite higher sales growth, most auto companies’ earnings will still be pressured by price cuts. PV sales declined 10.6% yoy and 39.7% wow in the first week of April due to the Tomb Sweeping Festival holiday. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL a...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: Weekly: Prefer High Value-added Automotive Pa...
Most OEMs, battery material suppliers and automobile dealers saw a margin squeeze in 2H23/4Q23, due to a drop in product prices. However, automotive part companies focusing on high value-added products, eg CATL, Desay SV and Fuyao Glass, enjoyed margin improvement during the period, due to optimisation of product mix. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Remove Tuopu from top BUY list on Tesla risk. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay. Add BYD and Li Auto to top SELL list. Top SELLs: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile: Weekly: PEV market share hits record of 48% on price...
PEV market share reached a record of 48% last week due to price cuts. BYD’s retail sales rebounded by 27% wow in the week ending 10 Mar 24 after price cuts of 10-20% on seven major models. Li Auto’s retail sales rebounded due to launches of 2024 Li L7/L8/L9. Despite the strong sales last week, PEVs are facing stiffening price competition. CATL's market share in China’s power battery market hit a record of 55% in Feb 24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu, Desay. Top SELL: XPeng.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: PEV insurance registrations rebound 19% in th...
Major automakers saw their PEV insurance registrations rebound last week due to price cuts. BYD’s retail sales rebounded less than expected last week even after implementing price cuts. The market response to Li Mega turned out to be disappointing, with over 10,000 orders cancelled. Europe and the US are abandoning all-electric plans and restricting Chinese-made electric vehicles. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELL: XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu, Desay.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: BYD’s price cuts trigger a new round of price...
Ytd, EV sales came in worse than expected. BYD’s 20% price cut on Qin Plus DM-i triggered a new round of price war. This will leave no winner as major players will keep engaging in the price war for a sustained period while small players like HiPhi will possibly be edged out of the arena. Following the heavy snowfall in Hubei, the Hainan incident reminds us of the limitation of EVs. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Top BUY: CATL. Upgrade Xusheng from HOLD to BUY on valuat...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002460 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09868 XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: A Snow Debunks The Myth Of EVs
As this week is the Chinese New Year holiday, the weekly EV insurance registration numbers will only be posted next week. The most eye-catching news is the snow in Hubei last week, which crippled hundreds of EVs on highways. This shows the limitation of BEVs in regard to long-haul drive and recharging. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s auto sector. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Top BUY: CATL. Upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD on valuation.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
2460 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM
002340 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 GEM CO LTD
3606 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
603305 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
LI NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
1585 LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
XPEV YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
002920 XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
881 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
1316 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
02015 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE CORP
09868 LI AUTO INC
XPENG INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: EV Market Share Falls To 38-Week Low
PEV market share dipped 1.2ppt wow to a 38-week low of 28.4%. BYD’s and Li Auto’s market shares also dropped 0.3ppt/0.9ppt wow to 29.5%/4.5% respectively during the week. Chinese authorities reiterated plans to boost automobile sales and exports, but we see limited impacts. Most auto stocks rallied along with the market this week due to the state’s bailout. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector on a grim outlook. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. We are adding CATL to our top BUY list as a hedge.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS
2460 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM
002340 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 GEM CO LTD
3606 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
603305 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
LI NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
1585 LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
XPEV YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
9868 XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
2015 XPENG INC
002920 LI AUTO INC
1316 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE CORP
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: EV sales remain lukewarm in the fourth week o...
EV sales in China continued to rebound in the fourth week of Jan 24, but remained low due to seasonal factors. We keep our estimate on China’s 2024 PEV sales growth at 11%, below consensus forecast of +20% yoy, based on destocking and diminishing effect of subsidies. BYD and Ganfeng posted disappointing 4Q23 net profit guidance on price cuts, triggering further downgrades. CATL’s guided 2023 profit beats market estimates, triggering a rebound. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li A...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS
2460 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM
002340 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 GEM CO LTD
3606 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
603305 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
LI NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
1585 LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
XPEV YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
9868 XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
2015 XPENG INC
002920 LI AUTO INC
1316 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE CORP
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: EV sales rebounded in the third week of 2024 ...
EV sales in China rebounded in the first week of Jan 24, driven by price cuts, which imply lower margins. BYD offered 2.5-9.0% discounts for the Ocean series. Tesla announced 2-6% price cuts in China. Li Auto cut prices for all of its models by over Rmb30,000. Looking into 2024, we keep our China PEV sales estimate at 9.9m units, well below consensus, on the diminishing effect of stimulus and destocking. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
2460 GANFENG LITHIUM
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: 2024 As A Year Of Pullback, As Evidenced By Y...
The development of China’s auto market ytd came in as expected with sales weakening, inventories piling up and car prices falling. We maintain our forecasts on China’s 2024 PV and PEV sales growth at -6%/11% respectively, down from 10%/37% in 2023, based on a higher comparison base in 2023, the rollback of stimulus and destocking. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium. Downgrade Li Auto from BUY to SELL, and downgrade Great Wall Motor from BUY to HOLD.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
2460 GANFENG LITHIUM
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE CORP
EPIC 1CM INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: PEV market share fell to 31% in the first wee...
PEV insurance registrations in China grew 76% yoy and fell 20.3% mom/46% wow in the first week of 2024. However, PEV market share fell from 40% in early-Dec 23 to 31% during the week. Except for Aito, all EV brands saw a drop in insurance registrations, including BYD, Tesla, Li Auto and XPeng, as the year-end promotions had exhausted buying power. We keep our 2024 China PEV sales forecast at 9.9m units (+11% yoy). Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Ganfeng Lithium.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
2460 GANFENG LITHIUM
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE CORP
EPIC 1CM INC
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: EV sales spiked in the last week of 2023 on y...
EV sales in China spiked in the last week of Dec 23, driven by year-end promotions, which dampened margins. BYD gave Rmb10,000-20,000 in subsidies to customers in Dec 23, vs 3Q23 net profit per vehicle of Rmb11,000. Besides, BYD gave Rmb2b in cash reward to dealers. Looking into 2024, we expect China’s EV sales to grow 17% yoy to 10.5m units, well below consensus forecast, on the diminishing effect of stimulus and destocking. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD and Ganfeng Lithium.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: Destocking kicked off for EVs. Maintain UNDER...
The yoy growth in China’s PEV retail sales volume slowed from 40% in Nov 23 to only 8% in 1-10 Dec 23, while PEV wholesale shipment dropped 10% yoy mom during the period, due to destocking. Going into December, OEMs have started to cut production and slash prices further to clear inventories. BYD’s retail sales volume fell 1% mom despite the 10% price cuts since 24 Nov 23. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD and Ganfeng Lithium.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
2460 GANFENG LITHIUM
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: PV sales spike on price cuts; lithium prices ...
Daily average PV retail sales volume surged 45-46% yoy/mom during 27-30 Nov 23 on price cuts. PEVs’ market share plunged 6.1ppt wow to a recent low of 32.7% during the period. Despite price cuts and the debuts of Yuan Plus Champion Version and Bao 5, BYD’s retail sales volume rebounded to only 58,300 units in the week ending 3 Dec 23, still 11% off the peak and much lower than wholesale shipment. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD and Ganfeng Lithium.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
2460 GANFENG LITHIUM
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
China Automobile Weekly: EV sales fell and inventories piled up during...
China PEV retail sales fell 24% mom/11% wow in the week ending 26 Nov 23, but wholesale shipments grew 21% wow, due to OEMs’ channel stuffing. Tesla and Changan outperformed, growing sales by 55%/123% mom respectively during the week. BYD and XPeng continued to underperform with weekly sales falling 8%/24% mom. Li Auto’s retail sales also dropped 6% mom during the week. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Remove Li Auto and CATL from our top picks list. Top SELLs: BYD and Ganfeng Lithium.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
1316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
002340 GEM CO LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
2015 LI AUTO INC
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
881 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
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