During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We attribute Haidilao’s share price surge of 8% on 10 Jan 23 in reaction to the strong table turnover rate growth. However, we reiterate our conservative view on the catering sector in view of the low visibility of an economic recovery and downside pressure on net margins from the market’s aggressive promotions. Within the sector, Haidilao is our top pick. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector.
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
Haidilao’s table turnover rate yoy growth accelerated in Aug 23, while the contrary was seen for Tai Er and Song. We attribute Haidilao’s faster table turnover growth to its aggressive promotions in the midnight dining scene since mid-Jul 23, against the weak spending sentiment towards the end of summer holidays. Looking ahead, we expect the companies’ table/seat turnover rate to gradually improve on economic recovery and continuous value-for-money meal offerings. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Haidilao’s 1H23 results were in line with its profit alert. Going into 2H23, we expect new store openings to remain selective and table turnover rate to improve, thanks to the company’s emphasis on menu, service and store innovations, as well as the upcoming holiday peak. Management guided for stable gross margin and staff cost ratio could improve on better operating efficiency. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$26.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Insurance Outstanding 1H23 results from PICC P&C, Ping An and Prudential. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$6.27/Target: HK$8.80) 1H23: Above expectations; wind power utilisation hours grew 8.4% yoy. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$9.46/Target: HK$13.33) 1H23: Results broadly in line; attractive valuation amid cautious outlook. Maintain BUY. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$33.25/Target: HK$47.48) 1H23: Results beat expectations; leading market position further str...
Haidilao’s share price surged 12.17% yesterday in reaction to the surprise earnings guidance for 1H23, on top of the better market sentiment with the government boosting local consumption. The company expects net profit margin to arrive at 11.7% (+11.2ppt yoy) in 1H23, higher than consensus estimate of 7.5% for 2023. We turn more upbeat on the company as we see improving internal operating efficiency, with the Woodpecker plan bearing fruit earlier than expected. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: HK$...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Moderating contraction in manufacturing. Results Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/BUY/HK$8.40/Target: HK$10.20) 1H23: Below expectations; weak start to the year. Update Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$21.85/Target: HK$26.00) 1H23 profit alert: Surprise in net profit margin. Upgrade to BUY. TRADERS’ CORNER Meituan (3690 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$142.00-146.00 Kunlun Energy Company Limited (135 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$6.10-6.30
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Moderating contraction in manufacturing. Results Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/BUY/HK$8.40/Target: HK$10.20): 1H23: Below expectations; weak start to the year. Update Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$21.85/Target: HK$26.00): 1H23 profit alert: Surprise in net profit margin. Upgrade to BUY. INDONESIA Results Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ/BUY/ Rp2,420/ Target: Rp3,000): 2Q23: Decline in raw material costs drives 41.6% yoy NPAT growth. Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG ...
We expect to see periodical opportunities in the following months due to the slow pace of consumption recovery and lack of incremental funds. We suggest paying more attention when the share prices dip to a low level that is close to the bottoms in Apr/Oct-Nov 22. We are confident on domestic sportswear leaders’ future growth from the increasing demand for professional sports products against the partially recovered purchasing power. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In spite of the limited funds in the market, we believe that consumer names’ investment opportunities still exist after share prices factored in rational expectations. We expect players with high earnings visibility and/or faster-than-expected growth pace (ie Moutai, Anta and CR Beer) to remain attractive for investment against a relatively weak consumption recovery background. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
In line with its profit alert, Haidilao’s revenue (excluding Super Hi) dropped 20.6% yoy and turned profitable in 2022, thanks to improved operations and staff efficiency. Management remains cautiously optimistic on restaurant openings in 2023 while staying upbeat on table turnover rate growth. We estimate a 0.7ppt yoy net profit margin expansion in 2023 on a higher table turnover rate and a lower staff costs ratio. Maintain HOLD and lift target price to HK$23.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Points to further recovery, but employment still soft. Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) 2022: Below expectations; recognition of RMB2,045m in impairment provision. China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$12.04/Target: HK$13.48) 2022: Core earnings a slight beat; expecting earnings decline in 2023. Maintain BUY. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14) 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sale...
GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$8.97/Target: HK$11.50) :2022: Below expectations; recognition of Rmb2,045m in impairment provisions. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$18.96/Target: HK$27.14): 2022: Results below expectations; targeting 20% sales growth in 2023 with strengthened landbank. China Resources Gas (1193 HK/BUY/HK$28.95/Target: HK$35.10): 2022: Below expectations; gas shortages in 4Q22 weighed on margins. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888...
While we think the road ahead to an overall consumption recovery is still bumpy despite the RSV pickup in 2M23, we are upbeat on the wealthy group’s sustainable consumption ability and the future growth of China’s luxury and duty-free markets. We believe the duty-free market will grow at a faster pace than the overall luxury market in China. CTGDF will be the largest beneficiary of the government’s intention to nurture it into a super strong duty-free leader globally. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the ...
Concerns on the household segment’s excess deposits continued into 2023 after the peak of its incremental deposits of Rmb17,840b in 2022. However, we expect gradual consumer spending recovery ahead as evidenced in 2021 given the easing of the pandemic and the recovery of consumer confidence. We attribute the share price corrections to the weak sentiment on overall consumption situations, but stay positive on the improving fundamentals. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
We see the recent consumer names’ share price correction as a pause in the upward trend due to: a) a lack of data exceeding market expectations, which would support the high share price levels in a short period, and b) fundamentals that are still improving. We reiterate that verification of improving consumption and further positive market consensus will drive the upward trend ahead. We suggest paying attention to potential further re-rating of Wuliangye ahead. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consume...
We attribute the stronger share price performance of baijiu names than peers to the market’s optimistic expectation on an economic and consumption recovery. We think the view of fundamentals likely remains positive although the share price performance could be diverse at the current stage. We attribute the relatively weak price performance of CTGDF to its limited tourism reception capacity, which will be effectively alleviated after its pipeline projects start operating. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on t...
In the second week after the holidays, the recovery continued and we saw more footfall in shopping malls, and busier roads and highways in Shanghai. We still prefer high-end products and services amid the improving fundamentals. We are also upbeat on the demand for sub-premium baijiu in Feb and Mar 23 given the recovery in drinking occasions. Fenjiu should be the key beneficiary thanks to its competitive product mix and continuous brand revival. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
After the holidays, traffic flow is normalising rapidly and we are also seeing more footfall in shopping malls, in both core and non-core areas in Shanghai. We are still upbeat on the fundamentals of CTGDF as the pipeline project, recovery of international airlines, further development of downtown duty-free, and recovery of margins would support its growth ahead. We are also upbeat on the leading diary players’ further rerating in 2023. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the consumer sector.
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