reports
- Russell Waller
Billionaires compared Is it right that Xavier Niel businesses have t...
The European Telco landscape is dominated by three high profile billionaires. Patrick Drahi, John Malone, and Xavier Niel. They all have multiple debt silos, and large empires, but the bonds trade at very different spreads. In this note, we look at why that might be the case, and in particular, if the Niel businesses deserve to trade at tighter spreads. We think they do, which means that Xavier Niel should be able to continue to raise funds cheaply (albeit the Iliad spreads widened after the Tel...
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Vodafone (Buy, TP: 140p, +111%) Iliad (HY coverage, but not rated) I...
On Tuesday of last week we received notification of a remedy proposal for Orange-Masmovil in Spain (HERE), which we thought could encourage other 4-3 deals in Europe. Less than a week later, Iliad has proposed a merger (really a takeover) with Vodafone in Italy. In this note, we run through our thoughts on the proposed deal.
French M&A: Is it possible? Proprietary survey suggests GUPPI ratio ...
On Iliad’s Q3 call, Iliad said that it had attempted M&A “seven times” before, but that it was no longer possible due to “the size of the companies merging and the complexities from an anti-trust perspective”. In this report, we update the diversion and GUPPI ratios from our recent proprietary survey, to see if Iliad is right.
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q3 23: Good results; read across for SFR/Altice is not good; F...
Iliad continues to perform very nicely in KPI and SR terms in France and results are better sequentially in Italy. Group EBITDA trends are better too inc and ex the BTS changes, but its hard to know what underlying trends are country by country
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q1 23: Weak French EBITDA, but could be good for overall market...
Iliad has reported a solid set of Q1 numbers, with Italy OpFCF positive for the first time ever, and French SR trends remain impressive. French EBITDA growth though slowed materially to +1.0% y/y from +5.8% y/y in Q4 22. Iliad say that EBITDA growth is down due to:...
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms High Yield Seven new names added: ATCF, Talk, Salt...
As part of our increasing coverage of the High Yield universe, we include new estimates and coverage for seven new names: Digi, Nuuday, Masmovil, Rakuten, Salt, TalkTalk, and Tele Columbus, taking total coverage to 18. As a result, we are now able to benchmark each company against each other, in terms of growth, risk, and asset cover.
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q4 22: Good SR trends in Italy, ambitious plans; Group EBITDA ...
Iliad has reported a good set of Q4 numbers, with a nice rebound in underlying (ex BTS) clean EBITDA growth, even though EBITDA in Italy turned negative y/y in Q4. Despite the weak EBITDA result in Italy, billed SR trends in Italy are particularly impressive, with growth accelerating to +26% y/y from +13% y/y in Q3.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
SCMN SWISSCOM AG
ATC ALTICE EUROPE NV CLASS A
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
ELISA ELISA
ORA ORANGE
TELIA TELIA COMPANY
VOD LN VODAFONE GROUP
BT BRITISH TELECOM
ILD EU ILIAD SA
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
New Street: Vodafone (Buy, 190p, +37%) Quick Take: Iliad terms for Vo...
Newsflow for Vodafone and Iliad is now becoming more concrete and with Iliad confirming an offer of €11.25bn for Vodafone Italy, we believe Vodafone are right to reject this offer. But this could just be the beginning of the courtship. In this quick take, we assess what we believe could be the right price for Vodafone to accept.
- James Ratzer
New Street: Vodafone (Buy, 190p, +41%) Quick Take: Iliad to buy Vodaf...
The drumbeat on Vodafone gets ever louder. It has been reported that another activist investor has taken a stake in Vodafone, and then it has been reported that Iliad has made an offer to the Vodafone Board to buy Vodafone Italy. In this Quick Take note, we examine the implications of this move by Iliad and what it could be worth to Vodafone.
- James Ratzer
New Street: Quick Take: Iliad strikes again in the Italian fixed marke...
After significant delays, Iliad has finally launched its fixed-line offer in Italy with headline grabbing prices, which will keep competitive intensity high in the Italian market. In this note, we review the price points, whether Iliad can make money with them, and what it might mean for Telecom Italia and Vodafone.
- Russell Waller
New Street: European Telecom High Yield Initiation: The sector is in...
There is a significantly sized private/high yield Telecom universe, of which we already have direct coverage of c.80% and indirect coverage of a further c10%. In this new product, we pull together market data and commentary for this high yield telecom universe (>€155bn of gross debt), leaning specifically on our sector knowledge and expertise to provide context and outlook for all. We also look closely at the European FTTH overbuilder sector, which we believe will see more debt raises in the nea...
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
ATC ALTICE EUROPE NV CLASS A
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
VMED VIRGIN MEDIA
SRCG SUNRISE COMMUNICATIONS GROUP LTD.
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
VOD LN VODAFONE GROUP
ATCNA ALTICE EUROPE NV
ILD EU ILIAD SA
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