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Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Dropping Coverage of Travelport

Travelport completed its merger to go private May 30, 2019. As a result, we are dropping coverage of Travelport. We provide broad coverage of more than 1,500 companies across more than 90 industry groups and adjust our coverage as necessary based on client demand and investor interest.

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Dropping Coverage of Travelport

Travelport completed its merger to go private May 30, 2019. As a result, we are dropping coverage of Travelport. We provide broad coverage of more than 1,500 companies across more than 90 industry groups and adjust our coverage as necessary based on client demand and investor interest....

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Travelport on Track to Go Private Later This Year; 1Q Re...

Narrow-moat Travelport continues to expect to go private in the first half of 2019, after its December 2018 announced takeout by asset managers Siris and Evergreen for $15.75 per share. Shareholders approved the deal in March, and the parties are just awaiting consent from Russian regulatory bodies. We plan to maintain our $15.75 fair value estimate and view the shares as fairly valued at current levels. After the transaction is completed, Morningstar will no longer cover Travelport but will con...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport on Track to Go Private Later This Year; 1Q Results Weaker T...

Narrow-moat Travelport continues to expect to go private in the first half of 2019, after its December 2018 announced takeout by asset managers Siris and Evergreen for $15.75 per share. Shareholders approved the deal in March, and the parties are just awaiting consent from Russian regulatory bodies. We plan to maintain our $15.75 fair value estimate and view the shares as fairly valued at current levels. After the transaction is completed, Morningstar will no longer cover Travelport but will con...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Travelport Set to Go Private March 15 in Deal That Under...

Travelport received a take-private offer from asset managers Siris and Elliott Management Dec. 10, 2018, for $15.75 per share plus $2.4 billion in debt. The existing bid is scheduled to be voted on March 15, 2019.We expect Travelport’s global distribution system, or GDS, revenue share to remain stable at around 30% the next several years, driven by a solid position in fast-growing areas (payment, hotel, air merchandising, mobile, international traffic) fostered by a strong technology platform....

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport Reports in Line 2018, as the Unattractive Go-Private Deal A...

Narrow-moat Travelport reported in line 2018 results, but that matters little to public investors, as the company appears set to go private under unattractive terms (in our view) post a shareholder vote March 15. We reiterate that the proposed take-private $15.75 per share offer made by asset managers Siris and Elliott meaningfully undervalues the company, based on our existing $18.10 valuation. Previously, we thought it was possible Travelport would receive bids from other asset managers during...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Travelport Take-Private Offer Doesn't Fully Appreciate I...

Travelport received a take-private offer from asset managers Siris and Elliott management Dec. 10, 2018, for $15.75 per share plus $2.4 billion in debt. The transcation includes a "go-shop" provision, allowing the company to seek out other bids until Jan. 23, 2019. The existing bid is scheduled to close during the second-quarter 2019 if approved.We expect Travelport’s global distribution system, or GDS, revenue share to remain stable at around 30% the next several years, driven by a solid posi...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport Agrees to an Unattractive $15.75 Take-Private Offer; Downgr...

We view the proposed take-private $15.75 per share offer for Travelport made by asset managers Siris and Elliott as disappointing for shareholders. The bid implies an 11 times on a $1.40 2019 earnings multiple versus the 13 times implied in our $18.10 valuation (which we don't expect to materially change). This is well below the 18 times and 22 times forward EPS multiple investors have paid for narrow-moat peers Sabre and Amadeus on average the past five years, despite our view of high-single-di...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Travelport's Network and Efficient Scale Advantages Inta...

We expect Travelport’s global distribution system, or GDS, revenue share to remain stable at around 30% the next several years, driven by a solid position in fast-growing areas (payment, hotel, air merchandising, mobile, international traffic) fostered by a strong technology platform. However, the company is not focused on providing IT services like inventory and reservation management, which are more capital-intensive than the distribution business but also offer higher margins and growth opp...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport's Network and Efficient Scale Advantages Intact Despite Nea...

Although narrow-moat Travelport reported Travel Platform sales growth of 2% versus our 4.5% forecast, we believe it was mostly due to temporary headwinds (weather disruption and customer transition), implying an unwarranted 8% drop shares today. Still, we expect to lower our $18 fair value estimate by around $0.50 to account for these near-term headwinds and increased cyclical risk. Trading at 10 times our 2019 EPS estimate, we see opportunity for investors to own an attractive business model t...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | We Believe Travelport's Weaker 3Q Mostly due to Transito...

Although narrow-moat Travelport reported Travel Platform sales growth of 2% versus our 4.5% forecast, we believe it was mostly due to temporary headwinds (weather disruption and customer transition), implying an unwarranted 8% drop shares today. Still, we expect to lower our $18 fair value estimate by around $0.50 to account for these near-term headwinds and increased cyclical risk. Trading at 10 times our 2019 EPS estimate, we see opportunity for investors to own an attractive business model t...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

We Believe Travelport's Weaker 3Q Mostly due to Transitory Headwinds; ...

Although narrow-moat Travelport reported Travel Platform sales growth of 2% versus our 4.5% forecast, we believe it was mostly due to temporary headwinds (weather disruption and customer transition), implying an unwarranted 8% drop shares today. Still, we expect to lower our $18 fair value estimate by around $0.50 to account for these near-term headwinds and increased cyclical risk. Trading at 10 times our 2019 EPS estimate, we see opportunity for investors to own an attractive business model t...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Travelport's solid payments and international growth con...

We expect Travelport’s global distribution system, or GDS, revenue share to remain stable at around 30% the next several years, driven by a solid position in fast-growing areas (payment, hotel, air merchandising, mobile, international traffic) fostered by a strong technology platform. However, the company is not focused on providing IT services like inventory and reservation management, which are more capital-intensive than the distribution business but also offer higher margins and growth opp...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport's solid payments and international growth continues to supp...

Narrow-moat Travelport Worldwide reported a solid second quarter, posting sales and EBITDA growth of 8% and 7%, respectively, highlighted by share gains in several international markets (75% of platform revenue) and continued strength in its eNett payment business (13%). We don't expect a material change to our $18 fair value estimate with first-half sales and EBITDA up 6% and down 1%, respectively, tracking toward our 6% and 2% 2018 forecast. We see the shares as slightly overvalued. Travelport...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Morningstar | Travelport Sees Solid Results in International Markets a...

Narrow-moat Travelport Worldwide reported a solid second quarter, posting sales and EBITDA growth of 8% and 7%, respectively, highlighted by share gains in several international markets (75% of platform revenue) and continued strength in its eNett payment business (13%). We don't expect a material change to our $18 fair value estimate with first-half sales and EBITDA up 6% and down 1%, respectively, tracking toward our 6% and 2% 2018 forecast. We see the shares as slightly overvalued. Travelpor...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport Sees Solid Results in International Markets and Payment Sol...

Narrow-moat Travelport Worldwide reported a solid second quarter, posting sales and EBITDA growth of 8% and 7%, respectively, highlighted by share gains in several international markets (75% of platform revenue) and continued strength in its eNett payment business (13%). We don't expect a material change to our $18 fair value estimate with first-half sales and EBITDA up 6% and down 1%, respectively, tracking toward our 6% and 2% 2018 forecast. We see the shares as slightly overvalued. Travelport...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary, downgrading Utilities; S&P 500 approaching potential resistance Sector Relative Strength Rankings. Stocks within retail and apparel Groups, long time favorites of ours, remain on a tear. Outperformance continued last week and allowed our equal-weighted Consumer Discretionary RSR to improve more than any other Sector. With both the XLY and our equal-weighted Sector breaking out to new price and relative strength highs, we are upgrading Consumer Discretionary to...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport's strength in payments and international markets support it...

We plan to lift our $17 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Travelport by a mid-single-digit percentage to account for incremental strength in the payment (10% of sales) and overseas (70%) business, leaving the shares fairly valued. Travelport’s payment offering, eNett, increased sales 81% (66% constant currency) in the first quarter, as its currency settlement advantage led to increased wallet share. This is evident in the 62% sales rise from pre-2016 eNett clients (post-2016 customer sales ...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport Reports Encouraging 1Q Payment and International Trends; Sh...

We plan to lift our $17 fair value estimate for narrow-moat Travelport by a mid-single-digit percentage to account for incremental strength in the payment (10% of sales) and overseas (70%) business, leaving the shares fairly valued. Travelport’s payment offering, eNett, increased sales 81% (66% constant currency) in the first quarter, as its currency settlement advantage led to increased wallet share. This is evident in the 62% sales rise from pre-2016 eNett clients (post-2016 customer sales ...

Dan Wasiolek
  • Dan Wasiolek

Travelport's network and efficient scale advantages are intact with ne...

We walked away from our recent meeting with Travelport Worldwide management with incremental confidence that the company's global distribution system offering is competitive with peers, thanks to ongoing technology investments, a robust payment platform, and a differentiated mobile solution. Additionally, we believe the GDS industry will remain essential to the travel ecosystem for years to come, as we detailed in a report in December. As a result, we maintain our narrow moat rating (sourced by ...

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