During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Li Ning announced to acquire a property in Hong Kong from Henderson Land, which we think is irrelevant to its main business and may deteriorate the company’s financial statements. In our view, the transaction reflects Li Ning’s weak corporate governance. Thus, we cut Li Ning’s target price by 61% to HK$18.80 and downgrade Li Ning from BUY to SELL.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Initiate Coverage iFlytek (002230 CH/BUY/Rmb45.38/Target: Rmb62.00) Trailblazer in voice recognition AI poised to capture AIGC opportunities. Update Li Ning (2331 HK/SELL/HK$21.35/Target: HK$18.80) Unreasonable property purchase reflects weak corporate governance. HSI AND HS TECH INDEX OUTLOOK
Li Ning is targeting >double-digit revenue CAGR during 2023-28, supported by its strategy to expand into lower-tier markets. While pursuing scale expansion, the company will also make quality growth a key focus, maintaining a healthy inventory level and solving its channel problem. We are in favour of Li Ning’s initiatives, but time is needed to achieve its goals. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$48.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: 3Q23 results wrap-up; analysis of BYD’s channel inventory level. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Li Ning (2331 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$48.80) Aiming to penetrate lower-tier cities; time needed to balance quality and growth. TRADERS’ CORNER 3SBIO INC. (1530 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$6.70-6.86 Huaneng Power International, Inc (902 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$3.60-3.70
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: 3Q23 results wrap-up; analysis of BYD’s channel inventory level. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Li Ning (2331 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$48.80): Aiming to penetrate lower-tier cities; time needed to balance quality and growth. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance Despite Negative Returns: Our picks: TLKM, BBNI, SMGR, NCKL, CTRA, MYOR, AKRA and CMRY. MALAYSIA Results Pentamaster Corporation (PENT MK/BUY/RM4.89/Tar...
Li Ning’s disappointing 3Q23 business operations can be attributed to distributors’ cross-region and channel sales. Management cut the company’s full-year revenue guidance to single-digit % yoy growth (vs mid-teens % previously), and implied that margins should be under pressure. We think the company will take a long time to strengthen its control on distributors. We cut target price by 10% to HK$48.80. Maintain BUY on its cheap valuation.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Hong Kong Exchange and Hong Kong Property Sector neutral view on the policies related to the stock market. overall impact on the property industry is natural to negative. Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb16.61/Target: Rmb21.00) 9M23: Satisfactory results; weak economic conditions may slow revenue growth. Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.33/Target: Rmb7.10) 3Q23: In line; gross margin jumps 3.3 ppt qoq to 8.3%. China Overseas Land & Investment ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Exchange and Hong Kong Property Sector: Takeaways from 2023 Hong Kong Policy Address: Policies largely in line; Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb16.61/Target: Rmb21.00): 9M23: Satisfactory results; weak economic conditions may slow revenue growth. Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb6.33/Target: Rmb7.10): 3Q23: In line; gross margin jumps 3.3 ppt qoq to 8.3%. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$14.90/Target:...
During the Golden Week holiday, domestic tourism and catering recovery were on track while duty-free sales recovery was still weak. We prefer sportswear in the discretionary space, given the decent sales momentum during the holiday (Anta: in line with internal targets; Xtep: 20% yoy growth), and baijiu in the staples space, given baijiu’s strong brand power. We prefer Anta in the sportswear sector, given its multiple catalysts, and Moutai in the baijiu sector, for its highest earnings visibility...
China’s sportswear companies saw improvements in retail sales momentum from August to early-September due to back-to-school demand. Share prices of Chinese sportswear names have corrected by 8-20% since 4 Sep 23 (vs HSI's -8%), and the current valuation is undemanding (14.1-21.5x 2023F PE). Considering a couple of upcoming catalysts, we think early-October is an appropriate entry point for the sportswear sector. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with Anta as our new top pick. • What we learned from Nike’s 1QF...
Chinese sportswear companies’ modest top-line growth in 1H23 reflected a lukewarm consumption recovery momentum. We expect the sales growth momentum to improve in 4Q23, helped by sportswear companies’ destocking promotions and the low base. Current valuation of China’s sportswear sector is undemanding, which has reflected the capital market’s lowered expectations on sales momentum in 3Q23. We maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s sportswear sector.
Li Ning’s 1H23 results missed expectations, mainly dragged by lower gross margin and higher selling expenses. Though management maintained full-year guidance of mid-teens revenue growth, we think this is challenging for the company amid a lukewarm consumption recovery and its decelerating business expansion. We cut our target price by 18% to HK$54.20. Maintain BUY.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Slower credit growth puts reflation trade at risk. Results Li Ning (2331 HK/BUY/HK$43.35/Target: HK$54.20): 1H23: Results missed; a tough 2H23 ahead. INDONESIA Results Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,750/Target: Rp7,600): 2Q23: Strong results in auto & financial services drive 17% core NPAT growth. MALAYSIA Strategy State Elections: Our risk-on strategy is intact with the unity government maintaining a comfortable majority in its three states. Expect ...
Li Ning’s 1H23 results missed, mainly dragged by lower gross margin and higher selling expenses. Though management maintained full-year guidance of mid-teens revenue growth unchanged, we think this is challenging for the company amid a lukewarm consumption recovery and its decelerating business expansion. We cut our target price by 18% to HK$54.20. Maintain BUY.
We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sportswear sector, with this our most preferred subsector in China’s consumer space. In our view, local brands will continue to benefit from their competitive pricing over international brands, given the mass market’s preference for value-for-money products. We are also optimistic on premium brands’ expansion in China, mainly due to the rising popularity of outdoor activities. Top pick: Anta.
Li Ning’s 1Q23 retail-sell through grew mid-single digit yoy but SSS declined by high single-digit yoy due to the high base in 2M22. Inventory and discount rates remained healthy, and the 2023 discount rate is expected to narrow by mid-single digits yoy. Retail sell-through growth has accelerated mtd to >20% yoy, with offline retail sales increasing >30% yoy. We expect 2023 retail sell-through and operating metrics to improve against a healthy inventory level. Maintain BUY with target price of H...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile 2023 Shanghai Auto Show – The prelude to the endgame of ICE cars. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Ganfeng. Results Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co (002472 CH/BUY/Rmb23.98/Target: Rmb33.00) 1Q23: Results in line; strong growth momentum from EV, robots and overseas. Update Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$126.40/Target: HK$187.00) 1Q23 results will be solid; ERNIE Bot as the key market focus. Li Ning Company (2331 HK/BUY/HK$57.40/Target: HK$72.60) Reta...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: 2023 Shanghai Auto Show – The prelude to the endgame of ICE cars. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, CATL and Ganfeng. Results Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co (002472 CH/BUY/Rmb23.98/Target: Rmb33.00): 1Q23: Results in line; strong growth momentum from EV, robots and overseas. Update Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$126.40/Target: HK$187.00): 1Q23 results will be solid; ERNIE Bot as the key market focus. Li Ning Company (2331 HK/BUY/HK$57.40/Target: HK$72.60): Retai...
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