reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers The impossible dream – NSR GEM Top-10 March...
2025 was such a strong year for EM Telcos with the result that while remaining bullish we thought it was not plausible that 2026 would be as strong. Yet if anything the year has started better than 2025, with our picks up 18% ytd already, and up 113% since the start of 2025.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Pricing power returns; where best; why (some) EM Telcos’ mu...
The resumption of pricing power is one of the key drivers of the rally in EM Telcos and perhaps the area where consensus is most sceptical. In this note we analyse which markets have the greatest potential for sustained pricing power, looking at key issues: affordability and regulatory and competitive structure.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – Strong start – NSR GEM Top-10 February ‘26...
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.9, +85%) Feedback from call with CFO
We hosted a Zoom call with Liberty Latin America CFO, Chris Noyes, and Head of IR, Soomit Datta on Thursday last week. We talked about Hurricane Melissa, trends at CWC, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, cost cutting and LLA’s capital allocation. The overall tone was measured but positive. Thoughts and feedback below
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.9, +97%) - Feedback from call with CFO
We hosted a Zoom call with Liberty Latin America CFO, Chris Noyes, and Head of IR, Soomit Datta on Monday this week. The call was split 50/50 between the group ex-Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rico. Tone on the business ex-Puerto Rico was positive. Regarding Puerto Rico, the tone was cautiously optimistic.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $13.9, +87%) Cutting Puerto Rico loose...
In this note we assess the likely cash flow at the parent of Liberty now that the decision to spin off Puerto Rico has been taken. We show that EFCF after minorities in 2026 at the parent is likely around $280m, driving a close to 20% EFCF yield.
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $13.9, +68%) Q2 25: Puerto Rico separ...
Decent numbers, but the key announcement today relates to the separation of the Puerto Rico silo. From an equity, and non-PR debt holders’ perspective clearly (very) positive, for PR debt holders more mixed but still on balance positive.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $14.5, +164%) Q1 25: Mixed; weak PR (...
Group headline trends improved materially, although the recovery in Puerto Rico is slower than we expected. Subscriber losses in PR were also higher than expected. However, capex in PR fell 30%, and as a result, PR net debt also fell by $15m. Headlines are disappointing but the cash flow picture in PR seems to be improving.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $14.8, +105%) Q4 24: Mixed, PR still ...
Group headline trends improved, although Puerto Rico remains weak at revenue/EBITDA. However, subscriber losses in PR also eased and Group capex guidance was cut as a result of which the company is maintaining guidance of $1bn of cumulative FCF between 2024 & 2026 (albeit while acknowledging they are behind after the first year). Results look better for the equity than debt holders in PR we think
- Soomit Datta
Liberty LA (BUY, TP: $13, +38%) Liberty LA / LCPR bonds - Outlook int...
Liberty LA will report Q3s in early November with focus largely on Puerto Rico and monthly EBITDA. Relative to the recovery aspiration by YE of $45m per month, we think they’ll be some way off (so does consensus) and performance of the bonds and, to a less degree the equity (LCPR equity is implied at zero we think), will be driven by commentary on momentum in the newly launched products.
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Telcos - EM wireless concentration: LatAm points to Millicom and...
Drawing on the work of our colleague Chris Hoare (HERE for Africa), we broaden out our EM analysis of market concentration in wireless. LatAm screens well, in the largest market of Brazil (5 to 3 consolidation) but crucially also for the smaller caps of Millicom and – best in class – Liberty Latin America which remain the two top picks in the sector.
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