reports
- Chris Hoare
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.9, +85%) Feedback from call with CFO
We hosted a Zoom call with Liberty Latin America CFO, Chris Noyes, and Head of IR, Soomit Datta on Thursday last week. We talked about Hurricane Melissa, trends at CWC, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, cost cutting and LLA’s capital allocation. The overall tone was measured but positive. Thoughts and feedback below
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.9, +97%) - Feedback from call with CFO
We hosted a Zoom call with Liberty Latin America CFO, Chris Noyes, and Head of IR, Soomit Datta on Monday this week. The call was split 50/50 between the group ex-Puerto Rico and the Puerto Rico. Tone on the business ex-Puerto Rico was positive. Regarding Puerto Rico, the tone was cautiously optimistic.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $13.9, +87%) Cutting Puerto Rico loose...
In this note we assess the likely cash flow at the parent of Liberty now that the decision to spin off Puerto Rico has been taken. We show that EFCF after minorities in 2026 at the parent is likely around $280m, driving a close to 20% EFCF yield.
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $13.9, +68%) Q2 25: Puerto Rico separ...
Decent numbers, but the key announcement today relates to the separation of the Puerto Rico silo. From an equity, and non-PR debt holders’ perspective clearly (very) positive, for PR debt holders more mixed but still on balance positive.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $14.5, +164%) Q1 25: Mixed; weak PR (...
Group headline trends improved materially, although the recovery in Puerto Rico is slower than we expected. Subscriber losses in PR were also higher than expected. However, capex in PR fell 30%, and as a result, PR net debt also fell by $15m. Headlines are disappointing but the cash flow picture in PR seems to be improving.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
Millicom (Buy, TP: $36, +30%) - Q4 24: Slower trends but strong EFCF
Millicom has reported a slower set of Q4 results and both service revenue and EBITDA came in a shade below consensus expectations. However, the EFCF performance was strong, well above expectations in Q4 and the guide for 2025 EFCF of ~$750m is also above consensus (in line with us).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Liberty Latin America (Buy, TP: $14.8, +105%) Q4 24: Mixed, PR still ...
Group headline trends improved, although Puerto Rico remains weak at revenue/EBITDA. However, subscriber losses in PR also eased and Group capex guidance was cut as a result of which the company is maintaining guidance of $1bn of cumulative FCF between 2024 & 2026 (albeit while acknowledging they are behind after the first year). Results look better for the equity than debt holders in PR we think
- Chris Hoare
Millicom (Buy, TP: $34, +24%) Impressive new shareholder remuneration...
Millicom has announced a new , very positive , shareholder remuneration policy which includes resuming regular cash dividends, sustaining or growing cash dividend every year, and keeping a prudent capital structure. The new dividend policy is well ahead of our expectations.
- Soomit Datta
TIGO (Buy, TP: $34, +29%) Millicom - Q3 24: Solid quarter; raised EFCF...
Millicom has reported a solid set of results with improving service revenue trends, a nice reversal in Home Broadband nets adds (driven by Colombia) and strong EFCF this quarter. The company has lifted its FY24 guidance for EFCF to ~$650m from “more than $600m previously” – though consensus is close to this level for FY24.
- Soomit Datta
Liberty LA (BUY, TP: $13, +38%) Liberty LA / LCPR bonds - Outlook int...
Liberty LA will report Q3s in early November with focus largely on Puerto Rico and monthly EBITDA. Relative to the recovery aspiration by YE of $45m per month, we think they’ll be some way off (so does consensus) and performance of the bonds and, to a less degree the equity (LCPR equity is implied at zero we think), will be driven by commentary on momentum in the newly launched products.
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Telcos - EM wireless concentration: LatAm points to Millicom and...
Drawing on the work of our colleague Chris Hoare (HERE for Africa), we broaden out our EM analysis of market concentration in wireless. LatAm screens well, in the largest market of Brazil (5 to 3 consolidation) but crucially also for the smaller caps of Millicom and – best in class – Liberty Latin America which remain the two top picks in the sector.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.