reports
- Chris Hoare
China Unicom (Buy, TP: HK$ 13.2, +52%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slower reven...
Service revenue growth slowed from a strong Q4 but profit trends improved, and EPS growth was better. Not disclosed but cash flow should be strongly higher on these figures given declining capex. Given EPS drives the dividend this seems positive to us, and we remain Buyers.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 24 review: Still growing; continued fall in absolut...
Chinese Telcos saw service revenue return to mid-single digits growth in 4Q24. Despite a blip in EBITDA trend, the industry ended 2024 with 6% earnings growth which translated to higher dividend payouts (CM: 73%, CT: 72%, CU: 60%).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
China Mobile (Buy, TP: HK$ 115, +62%) Potential stake acquisition of ...
Bloomberg has reported that China Mobile is mulling the acquisition of HKBN (HK: 1310) from TPG and MBK Partners for at least HK$5 per share. This implies an equity valuation of at least HK$6.56bn (US$ 853m) and represents 16% upside from today's share price. Our brief thoughts below.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q3 24 review: Macro continues to impact the top line
Service revenue trend kept steady relative to Q2, albeit being slower than before due to macro headwinds. Yet earnings momentum continued to trend in the mid-single digits overall as we saw good cost control by China Telecom again (acceleration in EBITDA) while peers were cushioned by lower D&A costs (back by easing capex).
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 24 review: Strong earnings despite softer topline; ...
Despite the slowdown in service revenue trend from softer macro, Chinese operators still delivered a strong earnings growth. Interim dividends rose by 7-22% YoY as all three raised payout ratios. Despite the share prices already roughly doubling, we remain bullish on exposure to China’s structural enterprise theme, improving capital intensity and improved shareholder remuneration.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
China Mobile (Buy, TP: HK$115, +65%) Q1 24 Quick Take: Decent bottom ...
Yesterday, China Mobile printed slightly mixed results; service revenue ahead by 0.9%, EBITDA behind by 2.7% while net profit was in line. Against Q4, service revenue accelerated as mobile improved and Enterprise seeing “favourable growth”. Less positive was the margin pressure as EBITDA declined YoY for the second quarter.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q4 23 review: Outperformance by China Telecom; bullish...
China Telecom was the clear outperformer for service revenue growth this quarter and for the full year too, driven by an acceleration in Enterprise. Industry EBITDA trend was less upbeat in Q4 as China Mobile and Unicom declined. Both capex and dividend guidance were bullish; industry capex expected to lower by 5% while payout is expected to trend above 75% over the next three years (by 2026) for China Mobile and China Telecom.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos & Towers Outlook 2024 – Expect another good year for t...
2023 was another decent year for the telcos largely driven by Enterprise. Stocks (especially China Mobile and Telecom) outperformed the weak local index. We expect trends to last through 2024 with good revenue growth and reducing margin pressure and the potential for shareholder remuneration to surprise
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q2 23 review: Better EBITDA; Enterprise continue to dr...
Chinese operators slowed to 5% service revenue growth, with the slowdown in mobile and broadband only partially offset by enterprise growth. Importantly, shareholder remuneration were encouraging as interim dividends grew 10%/19%/23% YoY for CM, CT and CU respectively.
- Chris Hoare
Chinese Telcos Q1 23 review: Growth sustained by better mobile and co...
Chinese operators sustained another round of 7-8% service revenue growth, supported by improvements in mobile and continued strength in Enterprise. Given the growth in absolute incremental Enterprise revenue, Enterprise service revenue contribution has now exceeded fixed line.
- Chris Hoare
Asian Telcos 5G capex has peaked in Asian Mobile Leaders
We analyse the capex outlook for Asian Mobile Leaders (Japan, Korea, China, Singapore). Conclusions are bullish: Capital intensity has improved materially and this alongside margin stability and better revenue growth completes the positive picture. ROIC, cash flow, and shareholder returns are all upgraded. From a stock perspective, we think China is the canary in the coal mine. Telcos there are surging having been in this environment for 2 years.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q4 22: Double digit growth persists
EM Telcos continue to grow ahead of expectations as a group, and remain resilient to inflationary cost pressures on consumers, with growth in Q4 remaining strong for the leading telcos we track. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
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