MTN has reported a solid set of Q4 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue growth growing a touch above the MT guidance this quarter. The company announced a dividend of 345cts for FY24 (previous guide was for 330cts) and the Board anticipates paying a minimum ordinary DPS of 370cts after the FY25 results.
We hosted a small group Zoom call with MTN Group CEO, Ralph Mupita, MTN Group CFO, Tsholofelo Molefe and Head of IR, Thato Motlanthe last week. Tone was overall positive, with a particularly bullish conversation around consolidation across Africa.
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
Service revenue trends were faster off better Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa as network availability improved. While underlying service revenue improved from Q1, it was still below the mid-teen medium term guidance. However, the Group maintained its guidance, with full year’s capex (Rs28-33bn) expected to be down around 30% from last year off lower spend in Nigeria. HoldCo leverage had also improved to 1.6x this quarter with better upstreaming.
MTN Rwanda has reported a disappointing set of Q2 numbers. Service revenue and EBITDA trends continued to deteriorate as they continue to be impacted by the MTR cut and higher competition on price. Additionally, EBITDA continued to be impacted by the One Network Area initiative, handset subsidy and the local currency depreciating vs. the USD. As a result, management has cut FY24 guidance.
Both MTN Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have announced the renewal and extension of all their MLAs in Nigeria, including new financial terms. This development is materially positive for both companies in our view. This means all MLAs in Africa between MTN and IHS have now been renewed and extended. Separately, MTN has also announced the exit from Guinea-Bissau.
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
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