reports
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190;...
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +13%) Q4 24: Solid quarter, FY24 dividend up
MTN has reported a solid set of Q4 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue growth growing a touch above the MT guidance this quarter. The company announced a dividend of 345cts for FY24 (previous guide was for 330cts) and the Board anticipates paying a minimum ordinary DPS of 370cts after the FY25 results.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +16%) MTN Rwanda – Q4 24 Quick take: Still mixe...
MTN Rwanda has reported a mixed set of Q4 numbers. Service revenue trends continued to inflect, and the company achieved its FY24 guidance for service revenue growth, but EBITDA trends slightly deteriorated.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +11%) MTN Uganda – Q4 24 Quick Take: Slower but...
MTN Uganda has reported a slower but solid set of Q4 numbers and has reiterated medium-term guidance.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +10%) Q4 24: Very strong top line; good support ...
MTN Ghana has reported a strong set of Q4 results. Both service revenue and EBITDA trends came in ahead of our expectations and service revenue growth accelerated again despite the macro pressures.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +10%) MTN Nigeria – Q4 24 Quick Take: Solid und...
MTN Nigeria has reported a good set of Q4 results. Headline revenue and EBITDA were very strong, helped by a one off in revenue. Underlying trends remained solid and came in above our expectations.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos 50% price increase to be approved
The NCC has announced it will grant approval for a maximum 50% price increase. This is a very positive development for the Nigerian Telcos in our view
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Nigerian Telcos – Price increase is finally coming, i...
A price increase is coming soon according to the Nigerian press. The magnitude is not yet known but this is positive news (potentially very positive) for the Nigerian Telcos, Airtel Africa and MTN.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Underlying top line stronger than ever, EBITDA inflec...
Nigerian Telcos continued to perform very well from a top line perspective despite the absence of price increases and the macro pressures. This suggests as we wrote HERE, that devaluations tend to spur ARPU increases in local currency, and a “catch back” of lost hard $ revenue.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +62%) Feedback from small group call
We hosted a small group Zoom call with MTN Group CEO, Ralph Mupita, MTN Group CFO, Tsholofelo Molefe and Head of IR, Thato Motlanthe last week. Tone was overall positive, with a particularly bullish conversation around consolidation across Africa.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +57%) Q3 24: Solid, SR growth back on track wit...
MTN has reported a solid set of Q3 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue trending back in line with the MT guidance.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +52%) MTN Rwanda – Q3 24 Quick take: Mixed quar...
MTN Rwanda has reported a mixed set of Q3 numbers. Service revenue trends inflected and are back into positive territory while EBITDA trends eased but remained under pressure.
- Chris Hoare
MTN Uganda (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) – Q3 24 Quick Take: Slower but soli...
MTN Uganda has reported a slower but solid set of Q3 numbers and has upgraded medium-term guidance for service revenue growth.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +50%) MTN Ghana – Q3 24 Quick Take: Faster quart...
MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q3 results with both service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and solid data subscriber net additions.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +48%) MTN Nigeria Q3 24 Quick Take: A much bette...
MTN Nigeria has reported a much better set of results. Top line growth accelerated again, and EBITDA growth is back into positive territory, helped by the tower lease renegotiations.
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos - Catch Back: Headwinds easing, many markets to 2 playe...
We see signs that the macro pressure of the last 2 years is leading to easing competition, as has happened in the past.
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos - Upgrade as the long cycle turns. Vodacom to Buy...
As the long cycle of competition turns, we upgrade price targets for both MTN and Vodacom.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) Q2 24: Better topline trends including im...
Service revenue trends were faster off better Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa as network availability improved. While underlying service revenue improved from Q1, it was still below the mid-teen medium term guidance. However, the Group maintained its guidance, with full year’s capex (Rs28-33bn) expected to be down around 30% from last year off lower spend in Nigeria. HoldCo leverage had also improved to 1.6x this quarter with better upstreaming.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +54%) MTN Rwanda – Q2 24 Quick take: Tough quar...
MTN Rwanda has reported a disappointing set of Q2 numbers. Service revenue and EBITDA trends continued to deteriorate as they continue to be impacted by the MTR cut and higher competition on price. Additionally, EBITDA continued to be impacted by the One Network Area initiative, handset subsidy and the local currency depreciating vs. the USD. As a result, management has cut FY24 guidance.
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