reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos Solid H1 but expect prepaid weakness; CY25 H1 re...
Despite a small slowdown in MSR trends, the SA market saw further improvements in total revenue growth, EBITDA and OpFCF margins in H1. Telkom continued to gain revenue share in mobile, driven by prepaid while Vodacom continued to gain share in fixed. Trends on the SA market have been improving since two years ago, helped by the reduction in loadshedding and an improvement in the macro environment.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another good performance; Q2 25 review
The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well again in Q2 with service revenue trends accelerating further, and stable OpFCF margins. MTN was the outperformer in terms of both local currency and $ top line performance in Q2, Airtel performed well too. Nigeria has contributed meaningfully this quarter, with local currency growth there accelerating to above 60%. The full effect of the price increase in Nigeria has helped and we expect another strong performance
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...
Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator
We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +60%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 25: Still mixed but MT gu...
MTN Rwanda has reported a somewhat mixed set of Q1 numbers. On the one hand, service revenue trends slowed, impacted by strong competition. On the other hand, EBITDA growth is back into positive territory and low capex spend this quarter translated into solid OpFCF
- Chris Hoare
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
- Chris Hoare
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