Still the fittest in the room

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - Working out nicely

The Q3 results were broadly in line with consensus, and SATS’ outlook was little changed. We reiterate our BUY as we still find the stock attractively valued, trading at a 2025 P/E of 11x on our estimates, and have raised our target price to NOK26 (25) on our slightly higher forecasts and peer group multiples. A reinstated dividend policy from H2 2025 (>50% of EPS), and scope for buybacks up to NOK500m are potential share-price catalysts.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK25.00) - Q3 earnings in line with consensus

We consider this a mixed report for SATS, including adj. EBITDA in line with consensus, but a soft mix, with all countries except Denmark just below expectations, and a group membership base 5k below consensus. We expect only minor revisions to consensus following the report.

EBIT as expected

Sales 1% better, EBIT 4% better. Denmark explains the beat.CF soft on timing of rent payment. Outlook reiterated.

Unmatched visibility

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK25.00) - Reduced overhang to mask soft Q3e

We expect SATS’s Q3 results to be below consensus, while we remain positive on the company’s medium-term prospects due to reduced financial risk, reinstated dividend policy with the potential for share buybacks, and its target for 8–12 news clubs annually. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK25 (22) on the reduced share overhang following Altor’s sell-off.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK22.00) - Out of the woods, time for reward

Despite fierce competition, SATS grew its membership base in Q2 at higher yields. The already significantly reduced debt level and the reinstated dividend policy with a potential for near-term share buybacks support that the positive trend should be here to stay. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK22 (20) on positive estimate revisions.

Sprinting ahead without breaking a sweat

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - Q2 solid, reinstated dividend policy

We consider this a positive report for SATS, including figures above expectations, slightly hiked club guidance and a reinstated dividend policy. We expect 5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EPS and believe a similar positive share price reaction is warranted.

EBIT 6% better and divi next

EBIT 9% better. Norway yet again explaining the beat. Net debt 7% better. Wil start with divi / buy backs.

On point, no flair

Q2e EBITDA excl. IFRS NOK 195m, in line with consensus. Solid CF and deleveraging continuing. EPS est. unchanged. '24e & '25e P/E s 10.5x & 8.7x, multiple expansion warranted: BUY.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK20.00) - Pricing takes precedence

We are lukewarm ahead of the Q2 report, expecting adj. EBITDA below consensus and flat YOY, as we forecast yield growth to be offset by cost inflation. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK20 (21) on marginally reduced estimates.

Re-focused and re-energised

Q1: EBIT 7-8% better. Profitably > volume growth, the right move. Q2e set to be ATH: '24e-'25e EPS up 4-7%. '24e & '25e P/E 11.2x and 9.3x: Multiple expansion next, BUY.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - On track

Despite underlying results slightly below consensus, we believe the Q1 report underlined that SATS is on track to deliver on its medium-term targets, with further potential from its existing club base longer-term. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Yields trump membership growth

Despite being marginally below consensus for Q1e, we are positive ahead of the report as we believe it should provide yet more evidence that SATS is on track to deliver on its medium-term targets to improve profitability. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price, having made slight positive estimate revisions, as we continue to find the valuation attractive.

SATS - Lean and healthy

SATS continues manifestly to deliver on its strategy of premiumisation with currency adjusted membership revenue up 11% in Q423 (15% for the full year) and assurance of ‘significant unleashed potential’ within the existing estate in terms of capacity utilisation and membership yield. Operating leverage, complemented by tight cost control (Q423 currency adjusted opex down 2%) and minimal expansionary capex for the time being, provides scope for lucrative marginal revenue growth (Q423 EBITDA up te...

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Profitability improvement on track

We believe the Q4 report confirmed SATS is on track to improve its existing platform’s profitability through increased memberships, higher yields and good cost control. We have upgraded the stock to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK21 (16) on our positive estimate revisions.

Sats (Hold, TP: NOK16.00) - Strong Q4 report

We consider this a positive report for SATS, including better than expected Q4 results and a membership base slightly above expectations. We expect 3–5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Sats (Hold, TP: NOK16.00) - From member freeze to squeeze

We are neutral on SATS ahead of its Q4 results, expecting EBITDA to miss consensus, and a slight decline in memberships QOQ on increased churn. As a result, we have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK16 (14) as peer valuations have expanded, valuing the stock at a 2024e P/E of 13x, broadly in line with Nordic retail peers.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Fitness reboot

The Q3 results confirmed that the company’s strategy to increase utilisation at existing clubs has paid off. However, investors continue to question the resilience of its business model, and the guidance for a drop in memberships in Q4 QOQ added limited near-term support. We reiterate our BUY, but have kept our NOK14 target price despite slight estimate increases.