reports
- Russell Waller
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads
This report updates credit investors on opportunities in the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Relx, Swisscom, and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. We provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24: Telecom Infrastructure – Recovery across the board
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex rebounded, up 13% YoY, driving a strong recovery across the value chain—from fixed and mobile equipment to semiconductors. Nokia remains our top pick in the sector.
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €12.8, +32%) Could Swisscom renegotiate the Inwit MSA?
This afternoon Swisscom said they will try to renegotiate the Inwit MSA, arguing that the fees are high relative to Inwit’s secondary tenants and international benchmarks. In this Quick Take we discuss whether that’s true, and whether Swisscom could plausibly threaten to exit the MSA.
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF636, +20%) Q4 24: Mixed results, Italy guid...
Swisscom has reported a mixed set of numbers, and given some disappointing guidance for Italy. Furthermore, remarks about a lack of repair in the Swiss B2C market despite recent price rises by Salt and Sunrise are a bit disappointing, albeit, we had not factored that into our model.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Russell Waller
Salt/Matterhorn (Equal Weight) Q3 24: Slower growth again, ARPU trend...
Salt has reported a decent set of results, but SR and EBITDAaL growth is again slower sequentially. Price competition remains elevated in Switzerland, and although Salt is continuing to outperform the market in SR terms thanks to KPI gains, ARPUs have taken another step down, which adds risk to the future growth trajectory.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads
In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer, Relx, Swisscom and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. As spread curves trade rather flat, we prefer notes in the belly of the curves. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF600, +8%) Q3 24: Swiss EBITDA supported by g...
Swisscom has reported a solid set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are unchanged (which is in stark contrast to Sunrise), but better cost cutting has led to a 2% EBITDA beat vs consensus for Switzerland and a 1% beat at the Group level.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +8%) Record low service revenue trends a...
This is meant to be the quarter when the upcoming Sunrise spin should be attracting most attention and helping to crystallise value. However, we can't help but be distracted by a sharp deterioration in underlying service revenue trends as the impact of lapping lower inflation price rises and a sustained KPI loss is starting to catch up with Liberty Global.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +16%) Sunrise CMD feedback and Liberty ...
The Sunrise CMD has just wrapped up – with the official spin-off from Liberty Global coming later this year. We provide our initial thoughts here on the new guidance, the valuation impact and the longer-term potential questions as the industry migrates towards higher-speed infrastructure
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