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Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Salt/Matterhorn Q1 24: Continued outperformance vs Swisscom and Sunr...

Salt has reported another good set of results, with SR growth at +5.7% y/y vs the overall Swiss market at -0.7% y/y. Salt continues to materially outperform Swisscom and Sunrise-UPC. This quarter, EBITDAaL growth has matched the SR growth as well.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF610, +22%) Q1 24:Mixed numbers, weaker SR ...

Swisscom has reported a slightly mixed set of numbers. Swiss SR trends have deteriorated faster than expected; EBITDA is more in-line, but OpFCF and FCF are both light. We worry that Swiss SR trends will come under further pressure in the run-up to the Sunrise IPO, and as Salt starts to offer a fixed product to more of the country.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +20%) Swisscom and Vodafone agree bind...

Swisscom and Vodafone have announced a binding agreement for Vodafone Italy: an €8bn EV for 100% of the company, on a debt-free basis. We update our thoughts on the deal in this piece from a Swisscom perspective, and will be following up with a piece looking at the deal from a Vodafone perspective later today.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Vonovia FY23, Vodafone, and Swisscom

Telecom - Vodafone to sell Vodafone Italia to Swisscom. Swiss government to evaluate Swisscom ownership

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +22%) Swisscom bids for 100% of Vodaf...

Swisscom has announced that it has agreed a preliminary purchase price with Vodafone for Vodafone Italy: an €8bn EV for 100% of the company, on a debt-free basis. We give our thoughts on the deal in this piece from a Swisscom perspective, and we will be following up with a piece looking at the deal from a Vodafone perspective later today.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Uniper, Swisscom

Utilities - Uniper: YE23 results far above previous years, reflecting high commodity margins

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +22%) Q4 23: Good numbers, underlying g...

Swisscom has reported a generally better than consensus expectation set of Q4 results, and adjusting for one-offs embedded in guidance, 2024 EBITDA guidance is in-line with expectations.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill
Diederik Stadig ... (+2)
  • Diederik Stadig
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

Telecoms Outlook 2024: Stepping into the future

2024 will be the year of the smart home, the acceleration of Europe's fibre rollout, transformative M&A and opportunities around 5G and cyber security. New regulation improves the playing field between telecom and tech firms while declining energy prices are a tailwind for the sector

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Vodafone (Buy, TP: 140p , +111%) Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +22%)...

M&A stories are in full swing, just when we want to be winding down for the holiday season. Such is the life of a Telecoms analyst! The latest press report is that Swisscom is considering a counter offer for Vodafone Italy; in reality we suspect everyone has been talking to everyone for quite some time. We think that Swisscom can get close to matching the Iliad offer in terms of overall attractiveness, which will give the Vodafone Board food for thought.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Vodafone, Swisscom

Telecom: Vodafone reportedly in talks about its Italian operations

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF600, +12%) Q3 23: Mixed numbers; revenue gu...

Swisscom has reported a slightly mixed set of Q3 results vs consensus, with SR trends worse and revenue guidance has been cut (the cut is mainly handset related though). EBITDA guidance is unchanged, and Swisscom is doing a better than expected job of taking cost out.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill
Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, CHF650, +18%) Q2 23 - Signs of more rational pricin...

Swisscom’s Q2 results are broadly aligned with consensus expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+6)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telecom

Telecom: Swisscom credit rating on positive outlook at S&P

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Salt (Matterhorn) Q1 23: Good service revenue outperformance vs Swiss...

Salt continues to outperform Swisscom and Sunrise-UPC in Switzerland, and has seen that gap grow this quarter as both Swisscom and Sunrise posted negative SR y/y, whereas Salt SR growth increased to +2.3% y/y from +0.6% y/y.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

European Telecoms High Yield Seven new names added: ATCF, Talk, Salt...

As part of our increasing coverage of the High Yield universe, we include new estimates and coverage for seven new names: Digi, Nuuday, Masmovil, Rakuten, Salt, TalkTalk, and Tele Columbus, taking total coverage to 18. As a result, we are now able to benchmark each company against each other, in terms of growth, risk, and asset cover.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telenor, Swisscom, Equinix, SES and Infine...

TMT: Telenor reports good 1Q23 results. Swisscom reports solid 1Q23 results. Equinix 1Q23 results are very good. SES 1Q23 results are in line with weak FY23 expectations. Infineon reported solid 2Q23 results and raised the FY23 outlook. What's going on in EUR credit: • Non-Financials underperform, widening between 0bp and 3bp. • Corporate Hybrids tighten by 2bp on the day. • Financials now 9bp wider compared to last week. What's going on in USD credit: • Tightening across all sectors on t...

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF650, +6%) Q1 23: Solid numbers, but worse ...

Swisscom has reported a solid set of Q1 results vs consensus, but after the very strong Q4s, some of the trends and KPIs are a little disappointing. The possibility of future price rises following UPC’s recent move is an intriguing one, and would be incremental to guidance/expectations, but Swisscom was non-committal on the call.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Salt/Matterhorn Q4 22: A slower but solid quarter; Debt rating upgrad...

Salt continues to outperform Swisscom and Sunrise-UPC in Switzerland, but it has seen a bigger sequential slowdown in SR growth than either this quarter. EBITDA growth has slowed less, but is down a touch to +4.2% y/y from +4.6% y/y. Capex is up as fixed net adds remain good, and we think that the new P2P FTTH wholesale deal with Swisscom will bring a new leg of growth for Salt.

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