reports
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads
This report updates credit investors on opportunities in the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Relx, Swisscom, and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. We provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24: Telecom Infrastructure – Recovery across the board
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex rebounded, up 13% YoY, driving a strong recovery across the value chain—from fixed and mobile equipment to semiconductors. Nokia remains our top pick in the sector.
- Ben Rickett
Inwit (Neutral, €12.8, +32%) Could Swisscom renegotiate the Inwit MSA?
This afternoon Swisscom said they will try to renegotiate the Inwit MSA, arguing that the fees are high relative to Inwit’s secondary tenants and international benchmarks. In this Quick Take we discuss whether that’s true, and whether Swisscom could plausibly threaten to exit the MSA.
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF636, +20%) Q4 24: Mixed results, Italy guid...
Swisscom has reported a mixed set of numbers, and given some disappointing guidance for Italy. Furthermore, remarks about a lack of repair in the Swiss B2C market despite recent price rises by Salt and Sunrise are a bit disappointing, albeit, we had not factored that into our model.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Russell Waller
Salt/Matterhorn (Equal Weight) Q3 24: Slower growth again, ARPU trend...
Salt has reported a decent set of results, but SR and EBITDAaL growth is again slower sequentially. Price competition remains elevated in Switzerland, and although Salt is continuing to outperform the market in SR terms thanks to KPI gains, ARPUs have taken another step down, which adds risk to the future growth trajectory.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads
In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer, Relx, Swisscom and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. As spread curves trade rather flat, we prefer notes in the belly of the curves. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF600, +8%) Q3 24: Swiss EBITDA supported by g...
Swisscom has reported a solid set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are unchanged (which is in stark contrast to Sunrise), but better cost cutting has led to a 2% EBITDA beat vs consensus for Switzerland and a 1% beat at the Group level.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Russell Waller
Salt (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Slower growth, but still outperforming Swi...
Salt has reported a good set of results, but SR and EBITDAaL growth is slower sequentially. Given the pace of KPI growth, Salt is having to expand some of its customer care and support functions. We think that operational leverage will resume once this process is over, as Salt did not call out a new higher level of commercial spend on the call.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Swisscom, Telefonica, Wolters Kluwer, Klep...
Telecom: Swisscom 1H24 results point to a though domestic market. Telefonica reports soft 2Q24 results. Technology: Wolters Kluwer reports strong 1H24 results. Real Estate: Klepierre boosts 2024 guidance after strong first half results. Colonial reports mixed first half results. Public storage reports weaker results, cuts FY guidance. WP Carey lowers FY guidance on lagging deal volumes Aedifica reports good numbers and upgrades FY guidance
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF611, +15%) Q2 24: Mixed numbers, Switzerla...
Swisscom has reported a slightly mixed set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are slightly better, but slightly worse inc wholesale and EBITDA trends have slipped and Swiss EBITDA is light of consensus expectations by -1.6%. Group EBITDA is slightly ahead (+0.3%) thanks to Other/Fastweb.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit has appeal/Market softness creates buying opportuni...
In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer and Relx look attractive. We prefer to avoid the notes of Proximus until we get further clarity about competitive dynamics in Belgium, following the expected entry of Digi. ASML and SAP, where spreads have widened a little since April 2024, could appeal to some investors. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- Russell Waller
Salt/Matterhorn Q1 24: Continued outperformance vs Swisscom and Sunr...
Salt has reported another good set of results, with SR growth at +5.7% y/y vs the overall Swiss market at -0.7% y/y. Salt continues to materially outperform Swisscom and Sunrise-UPC. This quarter, EBITDAaL growth has matched the SR growth as well.
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