reports
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads
In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer, Relx, Swisscom and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. As spread curves trade rather flat, we prefer notes in the belly of the curves. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF600, +8%) Q3 24: Swiss EBITDA supported by g...
Swisscom has reported a solid set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are unchanged (which is in stark contrast to Sunrise), but better cost cutting has led to a 2% EBITDA beat vs consensus for Switzerland and a 1% beat at the Group level.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Russell Waller
Salt (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Slower growth, but still outperforming Swi...
Salt has reported a good set of results, but SR and EBITDAaL growth is slower sequentially. Given the pace of KPI growth, Salt is having to expand some of its customer care and support functions. We think that operational leverage will resume once this process is over, as Salt did not call out a new higher level of commercial spend on the call.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Swisscom, Telefonica, Wolters Kluwer, Klep...
Telecom: Swisscom 1H24 results point to a though domestic market. Telefonica reports soft 2Q24 results. Technology: Wolters Kluwer reports strong 1H24 results. Real Estate: Klepierre boosts 2024 guidance after strong first half results. Colonial reports mixed first half results. Public storage reports weaker results, cuts FY guidance. WP Carey lowers FY guidance on lagging deal volumes Aedifica reports good numbers and upgrades FY guidance
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF611, +15%) Q2 24: Mixed numbers, Switzerla...
Swisscom has reported a slightly mixed set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are slightly better, but slightly worse inc wholesale and EBITDA trends have slipped and Swiss EBITDA is light of consensus expectations by -1.6%. Group EBITDA is slightly ahead (+0.3%) thanks to Other/Fastweb.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit has appeal/Market softness creates buying opportuni...
In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer and Relx look attractive. We prefer to avoid the notes of Proximus until we get further clarity about competitive dynamics in Belgium, following the expected entry of Digi. ASML and SAP, where spreads have widened a little since April 2024, could appeal to some investors. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
- Russell Waller
Salt/Matterhorn Q1 24: Continued outperformance vs Swisscom and Sunr...
Salt has reported another good set of results, with SR growth at +5.7% y/y vs the overall Swiss market at -0.7% y/y. Salt continues to materially outperform Swisscom and Sunrise-UPC. This quarter, EBITDAaL growth has matched the SR growth as well.
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF610, +22%) Q1 24:Mixed numbers, weaker SR ...
Swisscom has reported a slightly mixed set of numbers. Swiss SR trends have deteriorated faster than expected; EBITDA is more in-line, but OpFCF and FCF are both light. We worry that Swiss SR trends will come under further pressure in the run-up to the Sunrise IPO, and as Salt starts to offer a fixed product to more of the country.
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +20%) Swisscom and Vodafone agree bind...
Swisscom and Vodafone have announced a binding agreement for Vodafone Italy: an €8bn EV for 100% of the company, on a debt-free basis. We update our thoughts on the deal in this piece from a Swisscom perspective, and will be following up with a piece looking at the deal from a Vodafone perspective later today.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Russell Waller
Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +22%) Swisscom bids for 100% of Vodaf...
Swisscom has announced that it has agreed a preliminary purchase price with Vodafone for Vodafone Italy: an €8bn EV for 100% of the company, on a debt-free basis. We give our thoughts on the deal in this piece from a Swisscom perspective, and we will be following up with a piece looking at the deal from a Vodafone perspective later today.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Russell Waller
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Diederik Stadig
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
Telecoms Outlook 2024: Stepping into the future
2024 will be the year of the smart home, the acceleration of Europe's fibre rollout, transformative M&A and opportunities around 5G and cyber security. New regulation improves the playing field between telecom and tech firms while declining energy prices are a tailwind for the sector
- Russell Waller
Vodafone (Buy, TP: 140p , +111%) Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +22%)...
M&A stories are in full swing, just when we want to be winding down for the holiday season. Such is the life of a Telecoms analyst! The latest press report is that Swisscom is considering a counter offer for Vodafone Italy; in reality we suspect everyone has been talking to everyone for quite some time. We think that Swisscom can get close to matching the Iliad offer in terms of overall attractiveness, which will give the Vodafone Board food for thought.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
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