reports
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - Record-breaking TIV In 2023; Cautious On 2024’s Outlook
Record-breaking TIV In 2023; Cautious On 2024’s Outlook MAA achieved a record-breaking 2023 TIV at 799,731 units (+10.8% yoy). Hybrid and electric vehicle sales surged, with momentum expected to continue due to ongoing launches. We maintain our conservative view on the sector in 2024, anticipating a cyclical downturn resulting in negative TIV growth. BAUTO is our top pick, as we anticipate record-breaking results in FY24 and an attractive dividend yield of 9.3%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - 11M23 TIV: Sales Remain Strong; 2023 To Be Another Record...
11M23 TIV: Sales Remain Strong; 2023 To Be Another Record-breaking Year MAA’s 11M23 TIV reached 718,748 units (+12% yoy), and 2023 TIV is poised to surpass that of 2022. We expect Dec 23’s TIV to be similar to that of Nov 23. However, we believe a cyclical downturn from a high base would result in negative growth in 2024, and hence maintain our conservative stance on the sector. Furthermore, the implementation of fuel subsidy rationalisation and the introduction of a new luxury tax are expected ...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) - 3Q23: Results Still Resilient, Backed By Pent...
3Q23: Results Still Resilient, Backed By Pent-up Demand 9M23 results were above expectation on higher contribution across business segments. UMW’s prospects remain promising, supported by robust new bookings in the automobile segment and positive developments in the equipment and M&E segment. The Sime Darby-UMW acquisition deal appears favourable, paving the way for numerous synergy initiatives between Sime Darby and UMW. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: RM5.00.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, November 28, 2023
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly: Eyeing PCB recovery. Update BYD Company (1211 HK/SELL/HK$222.20/Target: HK$140.00): Downgrade from BUY to SELL on peaking retail sales and piling inventories. Slash target price from HK$630.00 to HK$140.00. Innovent Biologics (1801 HK/BUY/HK$45.30/Target: HK$60.00): Smooth progress in drug sales and R&D, targeting revenue of Rmb20b in 2027. INDONESIA Sector Coal: Flattish demand outlook with stabilising prices, dividend yield remains attractive. Do...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - 10M23 TIV Still Registered Solid Numbers
10M23 TIV Still Registered Solid Numbers The Malaysia Automotive Association’s (MAA) Oct 23 total industry volume (TIV) increased by 9.9% mom and 22.8% yoy to 74,896 units. 10M23 TIV was 646,840 (+12.4% yoy), driven by the improved sales from both passenger (+9.6% mom) and commercial (+12.5% mom) vehicles. We believe this positive result was driven not only by stellar performance from national brands which contributed over 60% of market share, but also the low base effect in Sep 23 due to custom...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - Sep 23 TIV: Mom Slowdown In Sales As Consumer Waited For ...
Sep 23 TIV: Mom Slowdown In Sales As Consumer Waited For Budget 2024 MAA’s September TIV came in at 68,156 units, bringing ytd TIV to 571,767 units (+11% ytd). We revise our forecast upwards by 4.5% to 700,000 units in 2023, taking into consideration the stronger-than-expected demand primarily for national car brands. However, we maintain a neutral outlook for the rest of 2023 and 2024, due to an expectation of limited catalysts, and the subsequent softening in numbers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - Aug 23 TIV: Sales Continue To Grow Despite The Absence Of...
Aug 23 TIV: Sales Continue To Grow Despite The Absence Of SST Exemption MAA’s August TIV came in at 67,912 units (+13% mom, +6% yoy), bringing ytd TIV to 501,552 units (+12% ytd). We maintain our conservative outlook, anticipating a decline in new bookings and demand in 4Q23, despite the healthy backlog of orders at the moment. However, stronger-than-expected demand and sales volume in 4Q23 could rerate the sector. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - Healthy Results Performance; More EV Incentives In Budget...
Healthy Results Performance; More EV Incentives In Budget 2024 UMW Holdings' (UMW)) 1H23 results exceeded expectations, driven by improvements in various segments, especially automotive, due to increased vehicle sales. Besides, we anticipate positive revenue and earnings for Bermaz Auto (BAUTO) in 1QFY24, backed by the improvement of car sales in 2Q23. We also assume more EV incentives to be announced in the Budget 2024 to enhance the overall EV ecosystem. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top pick is...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) - 1H23: Above Expectations On Higher Contributi...
1H23: Above Expectations On Higher Contribution Across Business Segments 1H23 results were above expectation on higher contribution across business segments. Prospects remain positive despite potential sales moderation in 2H23 for the main auto segment due to a high base but recovery in the equipment and M&E segment may offset this impact. We are positive on Sime Darby acquiring UMW as it will allow UMW to accelerate its transition to EVs using Sime Darby successful blueprint for distributing EV...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) - Strategic Growth Through Acquisition
Strategic Growth Through Acquisition Sime Darby has entered into a conditional SPA with PNB to buy 61.2% stake in UMW Group at RM5 per share and total cash consideration of RM3.6b. We think the price is fair which implies of 14x 2024F PE, in line with UMW’s five-year mean. Anticipated for 1Q24 completion, the acquisition positions Sime Darby as a major player in Malaysian auto segments (including EVs) and the heavy equipment segment. Our BUY upgrade reflects confidence in the acquisition's succe...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Sunny Chen
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, August 25, 2023
GREATER CHINA Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/HOLD/ HK$15.56/ Target: HK$14.50): 1H23: Margins deteriorated further; better visibility of recovery in 2H23. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$69.95/Target: HK$95.00): 1H23: VONB in line; margin slumps a concern. Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb18.02/Target: Rmb26.00): 1H23: Satisfactory results; strong demand to further boost revenue growth. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.11/Target: HK$6.30): 1H23: Earnings continue to thrive despite...
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
A2XN AAC TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS INC.
601939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS A
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
TSI EMPERADOR
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
UMWH UMW HOLDINGS BHD
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS CAYMAN INC
9999 HK NETEASE INC
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
Automobile - A Good Start, But Remain Conservative In 2H23
A Good Start, But Remain Conservative In 2H23 WHAT’S NEW The Malaysia Automotive Association’s (MAA) Jul 23 total industry volume (TIV) increased by 2% mom and 30% yoy to 63,676 units. 7M23 TIV was 429,807 (+13% yoy). However, we expect 2H23 TIV to fall 7% (base effect), even after recently revising up our earlier TIV forecast to 670,000 units (from 630,000 units), considering the backlog orders of 300,000 units to translate into sale in 2H23.
- Malaysia Research Team
Automobile - 2H23 Strategy: Expect Demand Normalisation
2H23 Strategy: Expect Demand Normalisation 6M23 TIV continued to report strong numbers, backed by higher backlog orders. Despite the sector outperforming the FBMKLCI by 13.5%, we maintain MARKET WEIGHT, as we see base normalisation with the absence of major catalysts. Long-term outlook remains positive, with the continuous launch of new models, such as EVs which are expected to support demand and government aspiration in sustainability adoption. Top pick: Bermaz Auto.
- Malaysia Research Team
Automobile - Sales Improve But We Remain Conservative
Sales Improve But We Remain Conservative WHAT’S NEW The Malaysia Automotive Association’s (MAA) Jun 23 total industry volume (TIV) increased by 1.3% mom, but declined 1.3% yoy to 62,649 units. In 6M23, MAA recorded 366,037 sales of new vehicles, which showed a growth of 10.4% yoy. However, we anticipate a decline in the numbers in 2H23 due to our expectation of a 12.6% decrease in TIV from a higher base. This decline is further influenced by the absence of SST exemption to boost sales and a hi...
- Malaysia Research Team
UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) - Visible Outlook, But to Remain Cautious
Visible Outlook, But to Remain Cautious While UMW’s automobile segment continues to show good growth momentum, we anticipate an earnings normalisation in 2H23, owing to higher input costs on a stronger US dollar, sluggish consumer sentiment and the absence of strong catalysts like SST exemption. The continuous rollout of new models and variants, equipment, the M&E segment’s recovery, and opportunities for the aerospace segment would cushion the base normalisation. Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM...
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kwanchai Atiphophai
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, July 21, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: Passenger EV sales up 53% wow in the second week of July. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Internet: Riding on the favourable industry backdrop. INDONESIA Update Champ Resto Indonesia (ENAK IJ/BUY/Rp1,340/Target: Rp1,710): Earnings to jump 32% yoy in 2023; beneficiary of post-pandemic recovery. MALAYSIA Update UMW Holdings (UMWH MK/HOLD/RM3.97/Target: RM4.10) ;Visible outlook, but to remain cautious. SINGAPORE Sector Technology: E...
- Malaysia Research Team
UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) - Upshifting Gears For A Smoother Ride
Upshifting Gears For A Smoother Ride While a base normalisation from UMW’s automobile segment could be in sight for 2H23 with the absence of SST exemption, the group’s strong orderbook backlog alongside an attractive launch pipeline could cushion the earnings impact. Meanwhile, the recovering aerospace segment could be the new growth driver with the group recently securing its second contract with earnings visibility for the next 15 years. Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM3.80.
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kochakorn Sutaruksanon
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Malaysia Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, May 15, 2023
GREATER CHINA Update BYD Company (1211 HK/BUY/HK$260.10/Target: HK$590.00): Takeaways from investor conference; maintain BUY. INDONESIA Shariah Gems Conference Highlights Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ/BUY/Rp5,900/Target: Rp9,200): On track for potential 30.9% yoy NPAT growth. MALAYSIA Shariah Gems Conference Highlights UMW Holdings (UMWH MK/HOLD/RM3.79/Target: RM3.80): While a base normalisation from the automobile segment could be in sight for 2H23, the group’s strong orderbook backlog alongside a...
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
AWX AEM HOLDINGS
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND PUBLIC CO. LTD.
UMWH UMW HOLDINGS BHD
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
SFPTECH SFP TECH HOLDINGS BERHAD
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
- Malaysia Research Team
Automobile - Strong Growth Across Key Brands
Strong Growth Across Key Brands WHAT’S NEW The Malaysia Automotive Association’s (MAA) February total industry volume (TIV) increased by 27% mom and 39% yoy to 62,649 units. In 2M23, MAA recorded 112,128 sales of new vehicles, which showed a growth of 29% yoy. This came in within our expectation at 18% of our full-year 2023 TIV forecast of 630,000 units (-12.6% yoy). Car sales in Mar 23 are expected to be higher than in Feb 23, owing to a rush for deliveries to fulfil bookings in the final mon...
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